Crude talk and the NFL: Trump doubles down on his lead with male voters
Donald Trump, who is leading in the polls with male voters, over the weekend referenced a golfing legend's manhood, interspersed his speeches with curse words and attended an NFL game to ensure he holds onto that key constituency.
It's a strategy that involves doubling down on exciting the Republican presidential nominee's most ardent supporters and emphasizing turnout among low propensity male voters with a hyper-masculine style, one his critics call a corrosive version of masculinity. Meanwhile, he is barely nodding at - and may be alienating - the suburban women swing voters once considered key campaign targets.
Still, Trump's approach has him competitive in the polls ? neck-and-neck with Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris – and it's one he’s long employed, even if it’s unusual for most politicians.
“I’ve never seen anyone focus more strenuously on current supporters rather than trying to expand the pool of potential voters,” said Frank Luntz, a GOP pollster and frequent Fox News contributor with more than three decades of political experience.
Harris and her allies have challenged Trump's approach. Addressing men who think Trump's behavior is a sign of strength, former President Barack Obama said earlier this month that's "not what real strength is." Harris running mate Tim Walz, a hunter and former football coach, has been deployed to court male voters but pitches himself more as a Midwestern dad than a macho man.
How Trump has courted men – and Harris has courted women
Trump won male voters by eight percentage points in 2020, according to exit polls, and he's doing even better with them now. A USA TODAY/Suffolk University survey released Monday has Trump up by 16 percentage points with men nationally, while Harris is up by 17 points with women.
Of course, both Trump and Harris will receive support from a range of voters. But this remarkable gap in candidate preference between men and women has been one of the defining features of the 2024 election cycle.
Both candidates have spent months laying out their priorities for the nation's economy, immigration system and other issues facing the country. But they're also playing to their bases.
Harris has emphasized reproductive rights as she seeks to drive turnout among women. She has frequently talked about caregiving and a slate of other health care issues that disproportionately impact female voters.
Trump’s appeals to men have been more overt and crude.
His comments Saturday about Arnold Palmer at a rally in the golfer's hometown of Latrobe, Pennsylvania, drew particular attention. Trump said Palmer, who died in 2016, was “all man.”
“When he took showers with the other pros, they came out of there, they said ‘Oh, my God. That’s unbelievable,’” Trump added.
Trump went on to unleash a string of profanities during the event, calling Harris a “sh*t vice president.”
GOP consultant Mike DuHaime noted that Republicans have traditionally done better with men because of the party’s approach to policy issues such as economics, national defense and crime.
The USA TODAY/Suffolk poll found that a majority of voters believe Trump would do a better job handling the economy, immigration and foreign policy, and male voters are even more likely to give Trump high marks in these areas.
Trump also is targeting men “culturally” with “tough talk and stereotypical male appeal through sports… but also explicit language,” added DuHaime, a Republican political strategist who previously worked on campaigns for former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former President George W. Bush.
Trump attended the NFL game Sunday night between the New York Jets and the Pittsburgh Steelers, with the national television broadcast showing him socializing in a luxury suite. Images shared widely on social media show people outside Trump's box cheering him and also giving him the middle finger. He previously has attended auto racing, college football games and other sporting events. He's often ringside at Ultimate Fighting Championship matches with his children.
Trump’s male-centric campaign also has included a string of appearances on “bro” oriented podcasts and other media. He has leaned on supporters who have large followings with men, from having professional wrestler Hulk Hogan introduce him at the Republican National Convention to campaigning with entrepreneur Elon Musk.
Whether this strategy is the reason Trump’s position has improved slightly in the national polling average this month is unclear.
DuHaime noted that Trump has “kept this race close” but said “it’s hard to tell if Trump’s doing well” or if Harris not widening her lead in national polls is because she's struggled to pick up a broader pool of supporters.
Energize-the-base strategy
Trump’s energize-the-base strategy worked for him in 2016. It’s possible it could work again this year, Luntz said. But it has risks.
“In the end it is all about turnout,” Luntz said. “And I can understand this strategy when you’ve got two or three days to go. But he’s been doing it now for weeks, even months, and that means that he has to get every single person who likes him to vote for him, and that’s a very tough thing to do. It’s doable, but it’s a tough challenge.”
Young men are particularly unreliable voters. In the 2020 election, 55% of women age 18-29 voted compared to 44% of men, according to an analysis by the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts University.
Getting them to cast ballots in high enough numbers could be a challenge, and Trump's campaign is facing questions from political observers about the strength of its get-out-the-vote operation, much of which has been outsourced to third-party groups. A super PAC financed by entrepreneur Elon Musk is leading part of the effort.
Musk is pledging to give away $1 million a day through the end of the election to people who sign his petition supporting the Constitution, which has raised legal questions.
Harris has her own challenges. She needs strong turnout from Black voters to propel her to victory, but Black men have been a weak spot as Trump makes gains with this demographic.
Last week, Harris rolled out an "Opportunity Agenda" for Black men that promises loans to Black entrepreneurs, education and mentorship programs and legalizing recreational marijuana, among other ideas.
The Democratic vice president has also employed Obama to appeal to this group, and the nation's first Black president has challenged the image of manhood that Trump presents.
“I’ve noticed this especially with some men who seem to think Trump’s behavior – the bullying and the putting people down – is a sign of strength,” Obama said at an event in Pittsburgh earlier this month. “And I am here to tell you: That is not what real strength is. It never has been.”
Trump continues to attract prominent Black supporters, though. A pair of Black former Steelers players – Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell – endorsed Trump on Saturday in Pennsylvania before he made his comments about Palmer in the shower.
Brown mocked Walz's football coaching and used a nickname for him coined by conservatives that references a bill he signed as governor of Minnesota mandating tampons in school bathrooms.
"And, by the way, Tampon Tim Walz, he isn't a real football coach," said Brown, a retired all-pro wide receiver. "He could never guard me."
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Trump leads with male voters and doubles down with macho man pitch