Confused about Biden’s Israel weapons policy? Here’s what you should know.

One day, President Joe Biden is pausing bomb shipments to Israel. Another day, he’s approving other arms deals. He’s threatening to cut off more shipments if Israel invades Rafah — but only those that are offensive in nature.

As tensions between the U.S. and Israel have risen over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s conduct of the war in Gaza, Biden’s recent moves can be hard to follow.

Biden has tried to strike a difficult balance between staunch support of America’s closest ally in the Middle East while condemning Israel’s heaving bombing of civilians in Gaza. That tension spiked last week when the U.S. paused a shipment of heavy bombs to Israel, and then Biden threatened to withhold additional offensive aid if Israel launches a major operation in the southern Gaza city where more than a million people are sheltering.

Yet other American weapons continue to move through the approval process unabated. That includes a potential $1 billion tranche containing tank ammunition, tactical vehicles and mortar rounds that the administration reported to Congress on Tuesday. Biden also made clear the U.S. will continue to provide defensive weapons, including interceptors for its Iron Dome air defense system.

Legally, the U.S. can’t cut Israel off completely. Since 2008, the U.S. has had to weigh all arms sales to Israel and other countries in the region against the requirement that Israel maintains a “qualitative military edge” against all enemies, both state and non-state actors.

Here’s what you need to know to read between the lines of what the U.S. is saying about the weapons it’s providing Israel, and what it’s really doing as the war in Gaza enters its eighth month:

What's paused

The Biden administration in late April decided to pause a shipment of 3,500 “dumb” — aka, unguided — munitions that officials expected Israel to use in Rafah: 1,800 of those were 2,000-pound bombs and 1,700 of those were 500-pound bombs. U.S. officials were particularly concerned about the 2,000-pound bombs and the impact the massive weapon would have in a dense urban setting.

In announcing the pause, Biden for the first time acknowledged that civilians had been killed by these weapons in Gaza.

“Civilians have been killed in Gaza as a consequence of those bombs and other ways in which they go after population centers,” Biden said on CNN, referring to 2,000-pound bomb. “I’ve made it clear to Bibi and the war cabinet: They’re not going to get our support, if in fact they go on these population centers.”

The bombs were approved by Congress in 2021. They had been licensed by the administration, manufactured, and ready to be shipped when the order came down to pause the movement.

But that’s not the whole story. Those munitions are typically attached to a guidance kit, which converts them into “smart” weapons — including the Joint Direct Attack Munition — that are guided precisely to their targets.

A senior U.S. official stressed that there are no tail kits in the shipment that’s on hold, and that Israel does not always outfit its unguided munitions with precision-guided tail kits. The official, and others interviewed for this story, were granted anonymity to speak about sensitive conversations.

What's under review

Separately, the official said that the State Department is reviewing multiple other direct commercial sales — those between U.S. industry and a foreign partner, which require an administration-approved export license — including JDAM tail kits. None of these sales involves “imminent” transfers, the official said. In other words, none would be used in the immediate Rafah operation.

The JDAMs case that’s under review involves 6,500 kits. It came up for license in December 2023, and the administration has been sitting on it ever since, according to a congressional aide and a U.S. official.

There are other potential foreign military sales to Israel that are moving through the State Department’s approval process. Those sales are between the U.S. government and a foreign government and typically involve a more complex and lengthy process. It’s not unusual for the administration to take its time approving these types of weapons, which include engines for the F-35 fighter jet, tank rounds, mortar rounds and medium tactical vehicles.

Once approved by the administration and Congress, these weapons will likely take months or even years before they are produced and delivered.

Many lawmakers, especially Republicans, are not happy with what they see as the administration going behind their back in holding up the bombs for Israel. Congress was not initially informed about the paused shipment or the other cases that the administration is reviewing.

“The administration is very much trying to keep Congress in the dark on a lot of their decision making. We've been constantly raising these issues but they have been unresponsive in giving a full picture of what's going on and why,” complained one aide.

What's still flowing

The U.S. has been Israel’s main supplier of advanced weaponry for decades. Under a 2016 agreement, each year the U.S. provides Israel $3.8 billion in military aid. That includes $3.3 billion in foreign military financing — the process by which the U.S. provides Israel funding to buy American-made weapons — and $500 million for joint U.S.-Israel missile defense programs.

This decade-long guarantee of funding has allowed the Israeli and U.S. governments to plan well ahead on arms and equipment sales, meaning that there are multiple discussions happening throughout the government at any given time. None of these sales is for immediate shipment. The discussions are around contracts and deliveries years in advance.

As of October, the U.S. had 599 “active” cases of foreign military sales for Israel, meaning ones that have been approved by the administration and notified to Congress. Altogether, the active cases for Israel are valued at $23.8 billion, according to the State Department.

Since Hamas’ attack on Israel on Oct. 7, the Biden administration has reportedly approved more than 100 such sales to Israel, most of which were not required to be notified to Congress because they did not meet a certain dollar threshold.

And the U.S. continues to approve new potential sales of weapons to Israel that exceed that threshold, such as the $1 billion the administration reported to Congress on Tuesday. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair Ben Cardin (D-Md.) said that the administration notified Congress of the sale informally and that he hoped the approval process would be done “in a matter of days.” After that, it would be up to the administration to decide if and when to proceed with the formal notification process.

The Biden administration is also weighing selling Israel up to 50 new F-15 fighter jets, for $18 billion, as well as other weapons, POLITICO reported in February. However, Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.) has said he is holding up this potential sale on Capitol Hill.

Meanwhile, the Pentagon has also expedited the transfer of weapons from a strategic stockpile the U.S. has maintained in Israel since the 1980s, and accelerated deliveries of weapons that Israel had previously bought from the U.S. Some of those reached Israel in the early days of the war, and more continue to flow in today.

More weapons will likely follow. Congress in April passed a bill to provide $26.3 billion in additional support for Israel, including billions of dollars for weapons like the Iron Dome air defense system.

Paul McLeary, Lee Hudson and Joe Gould contributed to this report. 

CORRECTION: An earlier version of this report mischaracterized the makeup of the shipment that is paused.