States are trying to block Donald Trump from the ballot. Here's what happens next.
WASHINGTON – Officials in Colorado and Maine have declared former President Donald Trump ineligible for the presidency – but there's a long way to go before states can actually keep him off the ballot.
The U.S. Supreme Court will likely decide the question of Trump's qualifications, after weeks and maybe months of appeals that will shadow the legal system and the 2024 presidential campaign.
Meanwhile, the Colorado Supreme Court and the Maine secretary of state's office have delayed enforcement of their rulings pending the appeals process.
What happens now?
Appeals bound for the Supreme Court
Trump's legal team plans to appeal the Colorado decision to the U.S. Supreme Court. The Colorado high court ruled that Section 3 of the 14th Amendment to the Constitution – the anti-insurrection clause – bars Trump from the ballot because he engaged in insurrection on Jan. 6, 2021.
The Colorado Republican Party has already appealed the state high court’s decision to the U.S. Supreme Court.
The decision from Maine’s secretary of state will almost surely also be challenged, but that appeal is taking a different judicial route. Trump spokesman Steven Cheung said attorneys will first file "a legal objection" in the Maine state court system, though that case could also make its way to the U.S. high court.
"These partisan election interference efforts are a hostile assault on American democracy," Cheung said.
In her ruling disqualifying Trump, Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows said the former president participated in the Jan. 6 insurrection by employing "a false narrative of election fraud to inflame his supporters and direct them to the Capitol to prevent certification of the 2020 election and the peaceful transfer of power."
What – and when – will the Supreme Court rule?
This could take a while.
The nation’s highest court will probably be loath to quickly rule on the central question of whether Trump engaged in an insurrection that would bar him from office, according to Michael McConnell, a Stanford law professor and former federal judge who is a prominent figure in conservative legal circles. He said half the country would be furious and probably view the decision as illegitimate.
The court is therefore likely to resolve the case on more narrow, procedural grounds, he said, such as by ruling the anti-insurrection clause has to be implemented through congressional legislation.
“Was it or wasn't an insurrection? Did he engage in it? These are things that reasonable people are going to disagree with, so I think the court is going to grasp for ways to handle the case that don't get to that ultimate question,” he said.
Some conservative legal figures have argued Trump engaged in an insurrection that disqualifies him from office, including University of Chicago Law Professor William Baude, who clerked for both McConnell and Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts. He and Minnesota law professor Michael Paulsen have argued that in a paper cited by the Colorado Supreme Court.
Former federal Judge J. Michael Luttig, who was interviewed by President George W. Bush for a seat on the Supreme Court, has also come out forcefully behind the disqualification argument, posting on X (formerly Twitter) that there is “simply no answer to the constitutional case” brought in Colorado.
Republican presidential candidates, including Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis and Chris Christie, have widely spoken out against the disqualification effort, and Vivek Ramaswamy has pledged to remove his name from any primary ballot that doesn’t include Trump.
Ty Cobb, a former White House special counsel under Trump who has been critical of him in recent years, predicted the Supreme Court eventually will rule in Trump's favor by concluding the anti-insurrection clause does not apply to the president.
"Trump will be on the ballot everywhere," Cobb said.
Other states may block Trump from the ballot
Before the Supreme Court can weigh in, other states may follow the lead of Colorado and Maine in seeking to keep Trump's name off of ballots.
Efforts are underway in Arizona, Nevada, Oregon, New Mexico, New York and Texas, among other states.
As Trump's attorneys have pointed out, some states have rejected moves to keep Trump off the ballot, including the Michigan Supreme Court
Late this week, California Secretary of State Shirley Weber refused requests to remove Trump's name from the presidential primary ballot.
Trump using legal woes on the campaign trail
While lawyers argue about Trump's eligibility, Trump himself probably will use the Colorado and Maine decisions to argue that the "deep state" is trying to use the legal system to target him politically.
Trump made the same argument after his indictments in four criminal cases filed throughout 2023.
The former president may also try to use his legal fight to boost his campaign. Already, he has posted commentary on Truth Social suggesting the Colorado decision could raise his poll numbers.
"Trump's been the only candidate in my lifetime who's gotten stronger after being attacked," said Josh Blackman, a professor at the South Texas College of Law Houston who has co-written a paper questioning the constitutional disqualification argument against Trump.
The Republican front-runner faces up to four criminal trials during the 2024 campaign year. That complicates his campaign schedule because he would have to present for proceedings in criminal trials.
The various appeals on ballot eligibility question are less onerous for Trump; he doesn't have to appear at any of the hearings.
What happens if Trump is convicted?
Colorado and Maine officials have stayed their decisions until final court rulings. That means Trump will very likely be on Republican primary ballots in Colorado and Maine, both on March 5.
Even if Trump prevails in the Colorado and Maine cases, the ballot eligibility fight might not be over – especially if he is convicted in a trial.
Trump's trials could include ones in Washington, D.C., and Georgia that accuse him of conspiring to steal the 2020 election through efforts that led to the Capitol riot.
If Trump is convicted, and if he wins the Republican presidential nomination, opponents in some states may use the conviction to bolster their disqualification arguments in the general election.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: States trying to remove Donald Trump from the ballot. What's next?
