Can Colin Allred pull off a victory against Ted Cruz in Texas? Democrats hold their breath

Will Democrats wake up to a blue miracle in a red state this November?

That’s the question looming over the party as former NFL linebacker and Rep. Colin Allred faces off against Republican Sen. Ted Cruz in the closely watched Texas Senate race. Cruz, a Trump-endorsed two-term incumbent, has held the seat since 2013.

And Democrats have been eyeing the seat as one they could possibly flip to keep control of the Senate, pouring millions of dollars into the race. Vice President Kamala Harris is also coming to Houston Friday to rally with Allred and speak on abortion rights. Famous pop star Beyonce is expected to make an appearance.

Though Republicans are confident that Cruz will prevail again this year, some polls show it’s going to be a tight race as both candidates are in a virtual dead heat less than two weeks out from Election Day, which is Nov. 5. An Emerson College Poll released Oct. 23 found that 48% of likely Texan voters support Cruz while 47% support Allred. Cook Political Report changed the race from likely Republican to lean Republican.

Other polls show Cruz leading by a narrow margin - even though former President Donald Trump is leading the state in the presidential race by seven points or more.

In the final homestretch of the race, both candidates are trying to court undecided and middle of the road voters, brand themselves as bipartisan and defend their immigration records (a top issue in the state).

“Overall, I think the race has remained very stable. It has been within striking distance, but Allred hasn't been able to close that gap,” said Mark Jones, a professor in the department of political science at Rice University.

The Cruz campaign did not respond to multiple requests for comment.

It’s a different time, Allred says

The only time a Democrat came close to beating Cruz was during his last re-election bid in 2018. Beto O’Rourke, the challenger, had earned 48.3% of the vote while Cruz earned 50.9% of the vote.

It marked a significant contrast from Cruz's 2012 election bid, where he won against Democratic challenger Paul Sadler by 16% of votes.

But Allred told USA TODAY in a phone interview he’s running a different campaign against a different candidate from the 2018 Ted Cruz.

He cited Cruz's position on abortion, his decision to vote against certifying the electoral votes for the 2020 presidential election for Joe Biden, and his 2021 trip to Cancun during a Texas winter storm blackout as reasons why Cruz has lost popularity among Texans.

Katherine Fischer, who worked on O’Rourke’s 2018 campaign, said the Senate seat was viewed as a “long shot” at the time, which is why O’Rourke ran an active campaign strategy in which he visited all 254 Texas counties to make that race less of a longshot and boost his name recognition. The outcome showed that Cruz was in a vulnerable position, she said.

Allred has mainly focused on courting voters in suburban or urban areas, Fischer noted. His approach has included appealing to select audiences - including moderates.

The changing demographics in the state, with more minority groups moving in, could give him a slight edge.

But with the Biden-Harris administration in power, Allred also faces more scrutiny as polls show voters have been dissatisfied with Democrats’ handling of key issues like immigration and the economy.

Allred defended himself, saying the race isn’t about political parties  - it’s about the candidates, and his record is distinct from his opponent’s.The two faced off in a combative debate on Oct. 15, knocking each others' records and sparring over issues including transgender rights, abortion and immigration.

Trump's margin likely to pull Cruz to finish line despite fundraising efforts

Senate Democrats have been making last minute investments into the race to give Allred a boost. The Senate Majority PAC, a group aligned with Sen. Chuck Schumer, announced a $5 million TV investment last week following a multi-million dollar digital and radio investment.

Last month, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced a multi-million dollar investment in the Texas and Florida Senate races.

Compared to Allred, Cruz hasn’t received as much support from his own party.

The Senate Leadership Fund, a Republican super PAC aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, hasn’t invested at all in the Texas race. Cruz has been critical of McConnell and once even said he should lose his leadership role in 2015.

But even with the fundraising, Democrats are still facing an uphill battle, said Matt Mackowiak, a Republican strategist who did consulting work for Cruz’s 2018 Senate bid.

“I think in the end, Trump's margin in Texas is likely to pull Cruz over the line,” he said.

Allred, Cruz brand themselves as bipartisan

As both candidates travel across the Lone Star state, they’ve tried to paint themselves as bipartisan. Cruz, in particular, was rated as the one of the most partisan members of the Senate in both terms.

He voted against the bipartisan immigration bill and a Democratic in-vitro fertilization access bill. Both bills have been championed by Allred.

Though Allred was voted as one of most bipartisan members of Congress by the nonpartisan Common Ground Committee, he has taken a vocal stance on abortion rights. Earlier this month, he released an ad featuring Kate Cox, a Texan who drew national attention after leaving the state to get an abortion.

But he’s also taken stands against Democratic positions. He voted to condemn Biden's handling of the border and urged the Biden administration to end the pause on permitting new liquefied natural gas export projects in an op-ed.

Even if Allred doesn’t win, it may not be a total loss for Democrats. Jones pointed out his presence on the ticket is enough for Democrats to potentially pick up seats in other local Texas races.

Fischer, the director of Texas Majority PAC aimed at electing Democrats to statewide office, said her group will continue putting in the work to unseat Cruz in the next election cycle, including raising money and building high voter turnout.

“Win or lose, this is not over for Texas Democrats,” she said.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Can Colin Allred win against Ted Cruz in Texas? Democrats hope so.