Clean and sober, taxes paid: Hunter Biden's new life could keep him out of prison

Hunter Biden faces the prospect of becoming the first president’s child to be imprisoned when he is sentenced in November on gun charges and in December on tax charges, but legal experts expect relatively light punishment rather than decades behind bars threatened by the convictions.

The two verdicts culminated five years of federal investigation. Biden pleaded guilty Thursday to all nine charges he that failed to pay his taxes from 2016 through 2019. His June trial and conviction on three gun charges featured wrenching testimony about his addiction to crack cocaine during that period and he avoided putting his family through a second ordeal with his surprise tax plea.

Biden, 54, must now prepare for sentencing Nov. 13 of up to 25 years in prison on the gun charges and Dec. 16 of up to 17 years on the tax charges. The convictions came after a plea agreement fell through in July 2023 that provided a chance for him to walk away with probation and no prison time.

But legal experts expect Biden, as a first-time offender, to get nowhere near the statutory maximums when U.S. District Judge Maryellen Noreika sentences him in the gun case and when U.S. District Judge Mark Scarsi sentences him in the tax case.

More: 'I will not subject my family to more pain:' Hunter Biden pleads guilty to tax charges

Federal authorities will calculate sentencing guidelines for the judges based on the circumstances of the crime, mitigating factors such as addiction issues, the amount of unpaid taxes of at least $1.4 million and the need for deterrence of future crime. But the judges aren't bound by the guidelines and defense lawyers could ask for less punishment.

Shanlon Wu, a former counselor to Clinton-era Attorney General Janet Reno, said he would be “a little bit surprised if he gets hit hard with a bunch of actual jail time” as a first-time offender.

“I think we should expect a relatively light sentence,” Wu said. “Given these circumstances I don’t think it’s impossible the judge could give him probation or home confinement.”

Legal experts expect Biden to highlight his recovery from drug addiction, his repayment of the taxes before charges were filed and the lack of need for a deterrent to discourage him from buying another gun while using drugs.

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“What I expect he will argue at sentencing is at the end of the day, all of these issues were driven by his addiction, which he’s now got under control and he has been put through the ringer in ways that an ordinary citizen, whose father was not a political figure, probably would not have been,” said Julian Andre, a former federal prosecutor. “The assumption is he’s going to seek probation and argue the government thought that was appropriate two years ago."

Here's what we know about sentencing:

Hunter Biden's high profile shouldn't hurt him at sentencing: experts

Biden's lawyer, Abbe Lowell, argued that prosecutors charged him with more crimes after the collapse of the plea agreement without additional evidence because of political pressure on Justice Department special counsel David Weiss. But Weiss told Congress politics played no role in the investigation.

Carl Tobias, a law professor at the University of Richmond, said Scarsi, who is presiding over the tax case in Los Angeles, could order a stiff sentence because the case has drawn so much attention. "My sense is that he might be strict on sentencing, especially in such a high profile case," Tobias said.

But Andre said it would be "problematic" for either court to sentence Biden to a longer term because his father is president.

“I assume the court will take the position that his prominence is irrelevant, that he should be treated like any person who pleaded guilty to these crimes," Andre said.

More: Hunter Biden tries to toss criminal cases based on Trump special counsel ruling

Biden's lawyers expected to argue gun and tax charges rarely prosecuted: experts

The gun charges against Biden ? lying about his drug use when he bought a handgun in 2018 and then possessed it for 11 days before a romantic partner threw it away ? are rarely prosecuted unless the weapon was used in a crime of violence, legal experts said. The tax charges are rarely prosecuted when repaid, experts said.

Also unusual is for a defendant to plead guilty to all charges without an agreement with prosecutors about the sentencing. Biden will be able to argue he took responsibility and repaid the debt.

“It’s a very, very unusual thing," Wu said. “It does allow Lowell to make the argument that he’s totally accepted responsibility here."

More: Supreme Court orders another review of gun charge behind Hunter Biden's conviction

What happened with Hunter Biden's plea deal?

The plea agreement that collapsed in July 2023 anticipated Biden pleading guilty to two misdemeanor tax charges for not paying taxes and entering a pretrial program for lying when he bought the gun while using drugs.

But prosecutors and defense lawyers disagreed at the plea hearing about whether the deal protected Biden from other potential future charges. Noreika rejected the plea agreement because of the dispute.

Biden’s concern was that he was also under investigation for possibly lobbying for foreign entities to influence government policy without reporting it, a violation of the Foreign Agents Registration Act. He had business deals with companies in Ukraine, China and other countries that Republicans have seized on. But Biden hasn’t been charged with foreign lobbying.

More: Hunter Biden's gun case was spurred by an ATF form. The shop violated federal law.

Hunter Biden paid back taxes but couldn't tell the jury

In pleading guilty this week, Biden expressed frustration that he wouldn't have been able to tell the jury that he repaid the taxes and penalties in October 2021 with the help of an affluent friend, Kevin Morris.

"When I was addicted, I wasn't thinking about my taxes, I was thinking about surviving period," Biden said in a statement. "But the jury would never have heard that or know that I have paid every penny of my back taxes including penalties."

Prosecutors opposed allowing the revelation because it could discourage enforcement of tax laws if a suspect could pay the penalty to avoid charges. Biden announced he was under investigation in December 2020 and paid the back taxes and penalties 10 months later.

More: Should Hunter Biden go to prison? Jurors and former addicts say 'No'

Hunter Biden became a GOP punching bag

Politics has always lurked behind and alongside the investigation. Hunter Biden has been a favorite target for House Republicans investigating his father ? even after President Joe Biden decided not to seek reelection.

Three committees ? Judiciary, Oversight and Accountability, and Ways and Means ? released an impeachment report on the first day of the Democratic National Convention filled with accusations of influence peddling and obstruction against the elder Biden.

The report, which didn't call for an impeachment vote, accused the elder Biden of participating in a conspiracy to help his relatives receive millions of dollars from foreign entities by attending dinners and participating in phone calls.

But the president called the accusations of corruption "lies." His brother James Biden and son Hunter Biden have each denied he was involved in their business deals. There was no evidence the president discussed business when he called his son when he was meeting with potential clients.

"It was, you know, just general niceties and, you know, conversation in general, about the geography, about the weather, whatever it may be," Devon Archer, a Hunter Biden business associate, told a House panel.

After a hearing in March, even some House Republicans questioned the evidence against the president.

"What's missing, despite years of investigation, is the smoking gun that connects his ne'er-do-well son's corruption," a former prosecutor, Rep. Ken Buck, R-Colo., wrote in an opinion piece.

In the end, it was his father's Justice Department, employing a Donald Trump-appointed prosecutor ? not House Republicans ? that finally draw blood from Hunter Biden. Whatever sentences he receives, Joe Biden has said he won't offer his son a presidential pardon or clemency.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Here's what to expect at Hunter Biden's gun and tax sentencings