All-blue Buncombe, Asheville may get Republican NC House member for first time in decade

For the first time in a decade Buncombe County might not elect an all-Democratic slate of North Carolina House members — thanks to newly proposed Republican electoral district maps.

Buncombe, once considered a politically conservative or moderate county, shifted to solid blue in recent years. That has meant the three state House seats have gone consistently to Democrats since 2014 — despite Republicans maintaining and growing a majority in both chambers of the General Assembly in Raleigh.

This year, GOP legislative numbers reached a tipping point, giving party members enough votes to override vetoes by Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper and helping them pass priorities such as an expanded public voucher system for private schools, a 12-week abortion ban and the classification of nuclear power as "clean energy."

Now Republican control of the redistricting process — as well as a new GOP-majority N.C. Supreme Court favorable to partisan gerrymandering — looks like it could crack Buncombe's blue cluster in the state House. The redrawing of the General Assembly maps comes at the same time the state legislators are creating new lines for the state's 14 congressional districts that would tip the 7-7 partisan split to as much as 11-3 in favor of Republicans.

The new N.C. House maps could be approved by the General Assembly as soon as this week, said Rep. Lindsey Prather of Candler, the Buncombe Democrat who said she will seek reelection despite the likelihood her district will shift from majority Democratic-voting residents to majority Republican-voting.

"There was very little surprise when these maps were released. I think we knew that the Republican supermajority at this point feels like they have free rein to do whatever they want when it comes to these maps," said Prather, 35, a former teacher who now works in UNC Asheville admissions. "We figured that they would try to try their best to draw a Republican district in Buncombe county, despite the fact that we have been trending blue for a very long time. But they did that across the state. So this is now one of the top four top five competitive House districts in the state."

The Citizen Times reached out to House Redistricting Chair Destin Hall, a Caldwell County Republican.

In 2022, Prather won the 115th District, which covers southwest Asheville and Buncombe County, with 58% of the vote to 42% by Republican Pratik Bhakta of Biltmore Park. This year the proposed map shifts the lines to put Prather in the 116th District, comprising a large swath of Buncombe, from the northeast to the central north and all of the west.

But it's the voting tendencies of the districts that are the biggest difference, said Chris Cooper, Western Carolina University political science professor and redistricting expert.

"Trump garnered 43.7% of the two-party vote for president in the current H115," Cooper said in an analysis of redistricting in Western North Carolina.

"The proposed version, however, would shift that district line dramatically — to 54% Trump," Cooper said.

Bhakta, a 51-year-old hotelier, would no longer be in the same district as Prather, but another GOP 2022 state House candidate, Mollie Rose, would be. The Citizen Times reached out to Rose, 65, a retired school counselor and mental health professional from Reems Creek, asking if she planned to run again. Last year she lost 38% to 62% to incumbent Caleb Rudow of North Asheville.

The Citizen Times also reached out Oct. 23 to Buncombe GOP Chair Doug Brown to ask about the districts and potential candidates, but Brown said he was traveling and unable to respond that day.

Like Prather, the other two incumbent Democrats would be shifted to new districts that would be more Democratic than their current areas. Rudow would be moved to a central 114th, while Rep. Eric Ager of Fairview would be in a new 115th.

In announcing her run, Prather, noted that the new 116th includes Erwin High School where she taught, saying she "knew that area well" and was "looking forward to getting to know" residents in other areas.

Rolling back state tax cuts for corporations would be one of her primary aims, she said, with that money going instead to subsidize child care.

"Every piece of data that we have shows that investment in those first couple of years in kids' lives is crucial, and you can't even quantify the return that we get on that investment."

Prather said she would also look to boost state legislators' pay, since the annual $13,951, plus per diem, makes it "impossible," she said, for working-class people to serve.

More: NC Republicans pitch Congress maps that could help them pick up 3 or 4 seats next year

NC Republicans enact voting, election boards changes over Democratic Gov. Cooper's vetoes

Joel Burgess has lived in WNC for more than 20 years, covering politics, government and other news. He's written award-winning stories on topics ranging from gerrymandering to police use of force. Got a tip? Contact Burgess at [email protected], 828-713-1095 or on Twitter @AVLreporter. Please help support this type of journalism with a subscription to the Citizen Times.

This article originally appeared on Asheville Citizen Times: Could blue Buncombe, Asheville get GOP NC House rep.? 1st in decade