Biden voters twice as likely than Trump supporters to vote by mail in November, survey finds

WASHINGTON — More than one-third of Americans intend to vote by mail in the November presidential election, but Democratic voters are much more bullish about the option than Republicans, according to a new survey.

Thirty-seven percent of registered voters said they are likely to vote by mail in the November election, by receiving a mailed ballot and either mailing it back or returning it in person, according to a new survey released Tuesday by the Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape project.

Among them, 48% of voters who plan to vote for Democratic presumptive nominee Joe Biden said they are likely to vote by mail, according to the survey. That's more than twice the 23% of voters backing President Donald Trump who said they are likely to vote by mail.

More: Where you can vote by mail, absentee ballot in the 2020 election

The numbers underscore the heightened political polarization that has consumed mail-in voting while Trump has railed on "universal mail-voting," characterizing it without evidence as more fraudulent than in-person voting and a plot by Democrats to "rig the election."

Several states expanded mail-in voting for safety reasons amid the coronavirus pandemic, fueling record vote-by-mail turnout in recent state primaries and likely again in November.

"At least for right now, we're seeing some relatively big differences between different demographics and political groups, said Rob Griffin, research director of the Voter Study Group.

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Forty-eight percent of registered voters who plan to vote for Trump said they will vote in-person Election Day, while another 22% said they will vote early in-person. Among Biden supporters, 28% said they intend to vote in-person on Election Day, while another 19% said they will vote early in-person.

The Democracy Fund and UCLA Nationscape Project is a large-scale study of the American electorate designed to conduct 500,000 interviews about policies and the presidential candidates during the 2020 election cycle. The survey was conducted between Aug. 6 and Aug. 12 and included 5,545 registered voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.1 percentage points.

Among all registered voters, the survey found 37% of voters intend to vote in-person on Election Day, matching the same percentage who intend to vote by mail. Twenty percent of all registered voters said they intend to vote early in-person.

More: 'America is not intimidated by you': Dems push back at Trump over mail voting, Postal Service at DNC

Some Republican leaders have openly worried Trump's strong rhetoric has discouraged Republican voters from requesting mail-ballots in key battleground states like Florida, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The Trump campaign, in coordination with state parties, has promoted absentee voting in these states to work around some of Trump's strong messaging.

Trump has said he is OK with absentee voting offered to seniors, the military, people with disabilities and others who are unable to vote in person on Election Day. But more recently, he's increasingly condemned "universal mail-voting" in which ballots are automatically sent to registered voters.

Twenty-five percent of all voters who said they voted on Election Day during the 2016 presidential election now say they will vote by mail in November, according to the survey. Twenty percent of voters who cast ballots early four years ago said they will vote by mail this year.

More: Where do Americans stand on election issues? Let them tell you.

More: 'He's scaring our own voters': Republicans run into a Donald Trump problem as they push mail voting

Mail-voting is most popular among seniors. The poll found 44% of voters 65 and older are likely to vote by mail, followed by 40% of voters ages 45 to 64. Thirty-four percent of voters 18 to 29 said they intend to vote by mail, while 27% of voters 30 to 44 said they do.

Among ethnic groups, 54% of Asian Americans said they intend to vote by mail, followed by 38% of white voters, 33% of Hispanic voters and 31% of Black voters.

The divide is starkest among political party, however – 47% of self-identified Democrats said they intend to vote by mail, compared to 28% of Republican and independent voters.

Reach Joey Garrison on Twitter @joeygarrison.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Election 2020: Biden voters twice as likely to vote by mail, survey finds