Atlantic hurricane forecast says danger lurks: When will the storms return?

As tropical activity heats up in the Pacific Ocean, the Atlantic hurricane season approaches its typical peak for activity. But all seems quiet — for now.

"Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days," National Hurricane Center hurricane specialist Jack Beven wrote Thursday morning in the agency's morning forecast.

Forecasters still expect this to be a ferocious hurricane season. Signs point to a stretch of heightened tropical activity incoming: "Large-scale environmental conditions look to get more conducive for tropical cyclone activity towards the end of August," the Colorado State University Hurricane Forecast team said in a new forecast released this week.

Computer models also suggest "several potential areas for tropical cyclone formation" by the end of August and into early September, the CSU forecast said.

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AccuWeather forecasters were even more specific in a forecast released Thursday: "AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva and the team of AccuWeather expert meteorologists are forecasting 6 to 10 named storms from Aug. 27 through Sept. 30," the team said.

Federal forecasters have predicted an "extraordinary" season, with as many as 24 named storms possible, including the five that have already formed.

A typical season sees 14 named storms, based on weather records that date from 1991 to 2020.

This season could "rank among the busiest on record," NOAA announced earlier this month, while slightly decreasing the number of named storms but increasing the chance for an above-normal season to 90%.

Will La Ni?a boost activity?

"We’re continuing to see the climatological hallmarks of an active season,” said NOAA's Matthew Rosencrans in a recent news release. “Sea-surface temperatures remain abnormally high, and La Ni?a is still expected to emerge during the hurricane season, so the time to prepare is now.”

Water temperatures are near or at record-high levels across much of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, according to AccuWeather. Tropical storms and hurricanes fuel comes from warm ocean water temperatures of at least 80 degrees.

And the La Ni?a climate pattern, which tends to boost Atlantic hurricane activity, is still expected later in hurricane season, the Climate Prediction Center said.

Five named storms so far

So far in 2024, five named storms have formed in the Atlantic basin, which includes storms in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. That's above the to-date average of four.

The U.S. has already endured a direct hit from two of the storms: Hurricanes Beryl and Debby.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Atlantic hurricane forecast: When will tropical storms return