2024 hurricane season: More storms expected as La Nin?a and warm waters combine
ORLANDO — Two months ahead of the June 1 start date of hurricane season, a leading forecast is predicting a "potentially explosive" season as abnormally warm sea-surface temperatures and La Ni?a gain dominion over the Atlantic basin.
AccuWeather, which released its seasonal forecast Wednesday morning, is predicting 20 to 24 named storms, with eight to 12 of those storms becoming hurricanes. Four to seven of those hurricanes are forecast to reach major hurricane strength of Category 3 or higher.
An average hurricane season has 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes. Three of those hurricanes typically become major hurricanes.
AccuWeather lead hurricane forecaster Alex DaSilva said multiple factors, including weather patterns in Africa, could make 2024 a “very active" season.
Hurricane season: High chances La Ni?a will be here for peak season. That's not good news
“When you look back at historical sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic’s main development region, recent average water temperatures jump off the chart,” said AccuWeather chief meteorologist Jon Porter in a news release.
“This is a very concerning development, considering this part of the Atlantic Ocean is where more than 80% of the storms form which go on to become tropical storms or hurricanes.”
Early seasonal forecasts are especially challenging because of something called the “spring predictability barrier,” which can obscure how the Pacific Ocean, and overall atmosphere, are going to behave once spring and summer fully arrive.
Often treated with wariness by veteran meteorologists, several of those gathered in Orlando for the National Hurricane Conference this week were less hesitant than in years past to express concern about what is ahead.
The signals from La Ni?a, which has a 62% chance of developing June through August, and sea surface temperatures 3.6 to 7 degrees warmer than normal, are hard to ignore, they said.
El Ni?o has a reputation of creating strong wind shear that works to shred hurricanes, diminishing their threat. La Ni?a calms wind shear, creating a friendlier environment for storms to form.
Erik Salna, a meteorologist and associate director of Florida International University's Extreme Events Institute, pointed to the "tug of war" last year between the hurricane-quashing El Ni?o and abnormally warm waters.
The 2023 season ended with an above average 20-named storms, ranking it fourth for highest number of named storms on record.
"The sea surface temperatures won," Salna said about the active 2023 season. "Now, take away El Ni?o and there's no tug of war. Everything is pointing to an active season."
Kevin Guthrie, the executive director of Florida's Division of Emergency Management, said the state is preparing for a storm season similar to 2004 when four hurricanes, including three major hurricanes, impacted Florida. That year Florida was harried by Category 4 Charley, Category 2 Frances, and the Cat 3s Ivan and Jeanne.
"Everyone is talking about this hurricane season, from the meteorologists to the National Hurricane Center, and saying this is going to be a very, very active season," Guthrie said.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is scheduled to release its hurricane forecast in late May. Colorado State University is expected to release its forecast April 4.
AccuWeather's forecast considered the potential for a stronger African jet stream in making its forecast, which also included the prediction of a 10 to 15% chance of 30 or more named storms this season. That would at least tie the 30 named storms that shattered records in 2020.
Hurricane whisperer: El Ni?o battled warm ocean temperatures during the above average 2023 hurricane season
Early in the season, the African jet stream could put a lid on tropical activity by sending increased plumes of dry Saharan dust across the main runway for storm formation.
But it also could produce more robust tropical waves to roll off the coast, which are the embryos for tropical cyclone formation.
Still, Fox Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said there are subtleties in the atmosphere this time of year that are hard to see as the seasons shift, giving any forecast before May a lower confidence level.
“The oceans are so much warmer now we don't have analogue years," Norcross said.
Forecasters often look at past years with similar climate and weather patterns, called analogue years, to make their predictions. The 2023 season was considered unprecedented in that forecasters had not seen record-warm waters and an El Ni?o during the same season.
"It's an evolving system so how well will the pattern recognition work," Norcross said.
A weak Bermuda-Azores high, which was also sitting farther east in the Atlantic, helped pull storms north around its western edge, sending them out to sea.
AccuWeather's forecast says warmer waters can offset the high south and east compared to its historical average. A weak high in this position, such as what was experienced in 2023, could steer hurricanes away from U.S. coastlines.
But a strong Bermuda-Azores high that stretches farther west could shoot storms into the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico.
AccuWeather also is calling for four to six named storms to make a U.S. landfall.
"The Texas coast, Florida Panhandle, South Florida and the Carolinas are at a higher-than-average risk of direct impacts this season," DaSilva said. "All residents and interests along the U.S. coast, including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, should have a hurricane plan in place and always be fully prepared for a direct impact."
Kimberly Miller is a veteran journalist for The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA Today Network of Florida. She covers real estate and how growth affects South Florida's environment. Subscribe to The Dirt for a weekly real estate roundup. If you have news tips, please send them to [email protected]. Help support our local journalism, subscribe today.
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: 2024 Florida hurricane season AccuWeather forecast active, more storms
