There will be major U.S. elections next month. Here are some to watch.
A crash course on what’s on the ballot this November.
Although other news is dominating the headlines, there will be critical elections all across the country on Nov. 7 — highlighted by a pair of gubernatorial races, the fate of a closely divided state legislature and more tests for abortion rights.
Here are a few races to keep an eye on over the next two weeks.
Kentucky governor
You’d expect a Democratic incumbent in a state Donald Trump won by more than 25 points in 2020 to be in a difficult spot, but Gov. Andy Beshear has been consistently polling ahead of his Republican challenger, state Attorney General Daniel Cameron.
Beshear’s handling of the state’s economy has been pointed to as a positive by voters, while abortion has been a key issue, as Cameron supports the state’s current ban on abortion even if a woman is a victim of rape or incest. Last year, 52% of Kentucky voters voted down an amendment that would have weakened abortion protections in the state.
A former state attorney general and the son of a two-term governor, Beshear’s time in office has included dealing with a series of devastating natural disasters — tornadoes in the west of the state in 2021 and the deadly flooding in the east last year — for which his response has generally been lauded, making him one of the most popular governors in the country.
A poll by Emerson College earlier this month showed Beshear winning independent voters 44% to 25%, as well as taking 28% of the Republican vote.
Mississippi governor
Republicans have dominated politics in Mississippi in recent years, but Democrats are hopeful they have a chance to deny incumbent Gov. Tate Reeves a second term. Reeves has refused to expand Medicaid in the state and has been drawn into a scandal over the misuse of welfare funds, which has caught popular attention partially due to the involvement of local legend and former NFL quarterback Brett Favre.
Democrats are running public service commissioner Brandon Presley, who shares a last name with Elvis Presley, his second cousin. A moderate, Presley is banking on support from the state’s Black community and voters who typically support Republicans.
“I’ve seen people who, when I announced, were probably upset that I was a Democrat running for governor,” Presley told Yahoo News in May. “And we talk, and they realize, ‘You know what, he ain’t got three horns coming out of his head, and he’s just, he’s the guy we’ve always known.’ You don’t do that by sitting home and hoping people will come around.”
Public polling in the race has been limited, with one survey earlier this month showing Reeves with an eight-point lead. The Democratic Governors Association, however, is promoting a poll this week that showed Presley running neck-and-neck with Reeves.
If neither Reeves nor Presley can secure 50% of the vote due to the presence of a third-party candidate on the ballot, the race will be decided in a Nov. 28 runoff election.
Ohio Issue 1
Ballot initiatives protecting or expanding abortion rights have had a consistent run of success since Roe v. Wade was overturned last summer, and their next test will come in the Buckeye State. If Issue 1 passes, it would establish “an individual right to one’s own reproductive medical treatment, including but not limited to abortion” in the state’s constitution.
Despite Ohio’s Republican lean, voters rejected a change to the ballot in August that would have made passing the abortion protections more difficult.
A poll last week found that 58% of likely voters were in favor of establishing a constitutional protection for abortion, above the simple majority needed for it to pass. Ohio will also decide on whether or not to legalize recreational marijuana, with that same survey showing 57% support for doing so.
Virginia legislature
All 140 Virginia legislative seats are on the ballot this November, with Republicans hoping to retain control of the state House and Democrats looking to expand their slim advantage in the state Senate.
The Virginia elections have attracted national attention for two reasons. The first is that, should Republicans manage to take control of the legislature, they could move forward with GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s proposed 15-week abortion ban.
The second reason is the governor himself. Some Republicans still hope that Youngkin, a conservative who has proved popular in the Democratic-leaning state, will make a late entry into the 2024 presidential primary if the GOP is successful in taking the legislature.
Pennsylvania Supreme Court
Pennsylvania is one of the few states to hold partisan judicial elections, with this race pitting Democrat Dan McCaffery against Republican Carolyn Carluccio for an open seat on the court, which is currently controlled by a 4-2 Democratic majority.
Much like the high-profile Wisconsin Supreme Court contest earlier this year, this race has also been centered on abortion with millions being spent on both campaigns. The result of the race will also be seen as a bellwether for 2024, with the state likely to play a pivotal role in the presidential election.