FBI releases 2021 crime data, but it lacks information from major police agencies
WASHINGTON – A large swath of law enforcement agencies have yet to submit complete data to the FBI's national crime tracking system, raising questions about the utility of a new report in assessing crime trends across the country.
The FBI reported a 4.3% estimated increase in murders in 2021 and a negligible 1% decrease in overall violent crime Wednesday, relying on an alternate reporting system. At the same time, officials acknowledged about 48% of the country's eligible police agencies, or 9,700, had not submitted 12 months of data to the National Incident Based Reporting System (NIBRS) by the March 14 deadline.
Some of the largest agencies in the country, including the New York Police Department, Los Angeles Police Department, Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department and Phoenix Police Department, had yet to submit any data to the system, the officials said.
Federal authorities said all of the jurisdictions have committed to providing the information, yet some agencies are operating on timelines slowed by a lack of funding, personnel shortages or delays in acquiring technology.
Report has 'blind spots'
But analysts immediately urged caution in ascribing meaning to the new report.
"With so many agencies failing to report a full year of data for 2021, this year’s annual crime data release will have significant blind spots," the Brennan Center for Justice said in an analysis of the report.
"It will probably be impossible to speak of a precise 'national' murder rate or 'national' violent crime rate for 2021... Policymakers will have to exercise great care when using this limited data," the Brennan analysis concluded.
More: FBI: Record surge in 2020 murders; nearly 30% increase drives spike in violent crime
Richard Rosenfeld, a criminologist at the University of Missouri-St. Louis, raised similar concerns.
"When only 62% of agencies have provided one-year of data and you have to estimate for the others, that's a problem," Rosenfeld said.
"Clearly, there is uncertainty surrounding the data released today. Let's hope this is a one-year blip."
Incident-based reporting
The FBI's incident-based system is designed to provide a deeper examination of crime in the United States that has been long dependent on a summary form of tracking in the agency's Uniform Crime Report. In addition to reporting major violent crimes and property offenses, the NIBRS system is expected to capture demographics of victims and offenders, while attempting to measure other offenses such as human trafficking, simple assault, bullying or intimidation.
Historically, policy analysts and lawmakers have relied on the data to develop new crime fighting strategies or allocate additional resources, including more police officers, to jurisdictions in need of assistance even as some communities have feared that reports of rising crime could draw unwelcome national attention.
Despite the limited data submissions from police agencies in Wednesday's report, federal authorities expressed confidence in the methodology. But authorities also offered their own clear caution, saying that the significance of the year-to-year changes were unclear given the limited participation of reporting agencies.
"In most instances, differences in the comparison of 2021 data to 2020 do not meet the criteria for statistical significance," the report said. "However, it should be noted that the main contributor to that finding is the large amount of variation...that is measured in the 2020 data due to low coverage of participating agencies. As coverage increases, the FBI will be able to improve its ability to measure these critical metrics for the nation."
The slight overall decrease in violent crime recorded in 2021 was driven in part by a nearly 9% decline in robbery, according to the report. Though the 4.3% murder increase follows a 29.4% surge in 2020.
More: Homicides down but violent crime increased in major US cities, midyear survey says
The new report comes in the midst of a super-charged election cycle in which communities across the country have been struggling to contain troubling outbreaks of violence and as local officials are seeking clarity in addressing the root causes of crime.
The Major Cities Chiefs Association, a consortium of police officials representing the nation's largest law enforcement agencies, reported in August that overall violent crime was up 4.4% in its 2022 midyear survey of 70 cities.
While the association reported a dip in homicide from the midyear totals in 2021, this year's report showed a 50% jump compared to 2019.
“These shocking numbers demonstrate how the sustained increase in violent crime has disproportionately impacted major urban areas," the association said in its August report.
With the approaching election and crime surging, Adam Gelb, president and chief executive officer of the nonpartisan Council on Criminal Justice, said there is hunger for a meaningful accounting but he described the new report as "disappointing."
"It's as clear as a glass of milk," he said.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 2021 FBI crime data lacks information from major police agencies
