100 mph winds? Francine could get that strong, hurricane forecasters say.

Doyle Rice and Dinah Voyles Pulver, USA TODAY
Updated ·2 min read
2

Tropical Storm Francine – soon to be Hurricane Francine – has been slowly gathering strength since it formed Monday in the Gulf of Mexico, with winds now estimated at 65 mph as of Tuesday morning. One question is: How strong will Francine get before it hits land?

"Steady to rapid strengthening" is forecast before Francine approaches landfall Wednesday evening in Louisiana, the National Hurricane Center said. However, the forecast has decreased slightly and now calls for sustained winds of 90-95 mph near the storm center. This would make it a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale of Hurricane Intensity.

Thanks in part to unusually warm seawater in the Gulf of Mexico, Francine could even undergo what meteorologists call "rapid intensification," which occurs when a storm increases its wind speed by at least 35 mph within 24 hours.

The National Hurricane Center's forecast graphic for Tropical Storm Francine on the morning of Sept. 10, 2024.The cone shows the likely path of the center of the storm, and not the extent of its impacts.
The National Hurricane Center's forecast graphic for Tropical Storm Francine on the morning of Sept. 10, 2024.The cone shows the likely path of the center of the storm, and not the extent of its impacts.

Warm water vs. wind shear

However, while there's plenty of warm water for intensification, strong winds aloft could prevent strengthening:

"The tropical cyclone should be over very warm waters before landfall, although west-southwesterly vertical wind shear over the system is likely to increase," the hurricane center said in an online forecast released Tuesday morning. "The latter environmental influence will probably limit Francine's strengthening."

Wind shear acts to rip apart tropical cyclones, preventing them from forming and strengthening.

Tropical Storm Francine in a color-enhanced composite satellite photo on the morning of Sept. 10, 2024.
Tropical Storm Francine in a color-enhanced composite satellite photo on the morning of Sept. 10, 2024.

When and where will Francine's winds be worst?

"Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of southern Louisiana Wednesday, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect," the hurricane center said. Gusts of up to 115 mph are possible.

Preparations to protect life and property should be complete by tonight, since tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within this area early Wednesday, the center said.

What kind of damage could Francine cause?

Although a Category 1 is forecast at landfall, the hurricane center advises people in the path of the storm to plan for one category higher. According to the hurricane center, extremely dangerous winds would cause extensive damage during a Category 2 storm. This includes:

? Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. ? Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. ? Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks.

Tropical Storm Francine tracker

Francine spaghetti models

Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Will Francine rapidly intensify? Category 1 hurricane in forecast.

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