How to Overcome Decision Fatigue
First let’s clarify what we’re talking about: A tough decision is one that involves lots of uncertainty or unknowns, says Sydney Finkelstein, PhD, professor of management at Dartmouth University and host of The Sydcast podcast. To take a not-life-and-death example, he says, “Imagine your flight is delayed at the gate for ‘aircraft maintenance.’ There’s another that’s leaving in two hours, but getting a seat on it will require you to give up the seat you now have. Do you wait for your current plane or take a chance on the later flight?” There’s no easy way to know which choice will get you home quicker.
The most common tough decision is… “Should I stay or should I go?” says Finkelstein—in a job or in a relationship.
To make a tough decision, ignore this old saying. “Most know of the adage that ‘past predicts future,’” says Finkelstein. “That may be generally true, but specifically it leads people astray: If they did something once and it was successful, then they reach the conclusion that they are awesome at that thing and will always be successful at it. Or they think that if they did something once and it was unsuccessful, then they stink at it and will always be unsuccessful at it. Either way, the big conclusion is based on a sample size of one.” You don’t have to be a statistician to know that the law of averages doesn’t kick in at one.
Look beyond “either/or.” In the airplane scenario, you have more choices than your airline gave you, points out James Langabeer, PhD, professor of entrepreneurial informatics at the University of Texas Health Science Center and founder of the strategic consulting firm Yellowstone Research. You could check with other airlines to see if they have earlier flights, or if you don’t want to pay for a new ticket, you could check the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Airline Customer Service Dashboard to see which companies have reciprocal rebooking agreements with your airline. “[Research shows] the key to making better choices is to have more alternatives,” says Langabeer.
If your only choice is between two equally good (or bad or unknowable) things, base your decision on this: Assess each option or outcome based on the energy efficiency or the cost efficiency, says Langabeer. Maybe catching that other flight is going to involve an extra $250 or require you to get to a different boarding area on the other side of the airport, which will require you to schlep to a train, then to a new faraway gate. Maybe it’s worth $250 to be home earlier, or maybe you’d rather not race across the terminal and instead use the time to catch up on work or relax with a drink.
What to do if the decision is extremely high stakes? If you have cancer, the decision to get traditional chemotherapy or an experimental immunotherapy can seem unsolvable. “These cases really require contemplation,” says Langabeer. But research shows that most often in these situations, “there’s a lot of worrying and anxiety,” he says, “but very little contemplation.” Most of us can’t go to PubMed.com and read the scientific literature and totally understand it, so a person in this situation needs to really interview their doctors, looking for explanations and facts that can provide you with context: “How many times has this been done nationally? How many times have you done it? What are the outcomes? What are the side effects?” says Langabeer. Other questions he would recommend in this situation are: “If this were your son or daughter, where would you take her for care? Why?” Get a second opinion. If you are considering alternative therapy, get third and fourth opinions. “After you’ve done all that, you can line up the information you’ve received with your values,” he says. That’s the opportunity for deep contemplation. Do you want to minimize risk or minimize side effects? The only way to get to that final step is by having gathered all the information you can.
Amanda Robb is a Newhouse Mirror Award-winning New York–based journalist, who recently produced season seven of the podcast Someone Knows Something.
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