Has Iceland been over-estimating its growth in tourism?

The extraordinary surge in the number of visitors to Iceland since its tourism industry went into overdrive might actually have been overstated. It has now emerged that arrival statistics in recent years have accounted not just for tourists, but also for all those travellers who never left the airport.

In 2010, just over 450,000 people visited the northern European country, in search of staggering scenery, a multitude of waterfalls and geothermal geysers, but by last year, that figure had risen to 2.2 million, a level of growth that has caused consternation in those sectors concerned as to how the small island nation would cope with such an influx and protect its natural landscape.

But an analysis of its tourist figures has shown that the number of visitors in 2016 - 1.8 million - might have been closer to 1.5 million, as some 250,000 arrivals were either foreigners living in Iceland, air passengers using Reykjavik international airport to connect to another flight, or only stayed in the city for a number of hours before departing for home or onward travel. Reykjavik's Keflavik Airport is growing as a hub for transatlantic travel thanks to carriers WOWair and Icelandair. 

A survey carried out last year by the Icelandic tourism minister found that 5 per cent of passengers were “self-connecting” on flights to and from Keflavik Airport, 6 per cent “enjoyed some services outside the airport without staying overnight” and 3 per cent “were foreign citizens living in Iceland”, constituting 14 per cent of the total arrivals figure.

Icelandic news website Turisti said arrival figures for March this year were up 3 per cent on last year, but due to the way visitors are counted “it is very probable that the number of tourists visiting Iceland in March has in fact decreased”. Turisti says that 2017’s tourism figure of 2.2 million visitors is “more likely” to be a little under 2 million.

Alexander Goransson, a consultant at travel statisticians Euromonitor, said the country is likely still getting to grips with how to best measure its arrivals.

“[The way the tourism ministry measures arrivals] can vary a lot between countries,” he said. “Basically, [Iceland] is disputing its own data.

“When it comes to Iceland it should in theory be an easy country to track as there are not that many ways in or out.”

The accuracy of Iceland’s tourism statistics is vital for a country struggling to fortify its infrastructure around delicate natural sites to accommodate coach-loads of tourists. Critics of the surge of visitors have complained that downtown Reykjavik is turning into “Disneyland”.

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This week the Park Rangers Society of Iceland released a statement calling for year-round protection at sites of natural wonder and “to put nature in first place” amid personnel shortages.

“The stream of tourists has increased many times over in just a few years, and is now considerable all year round, but land management has unfortunately not been able to keep up,” the statement reads. “The need for land management services throughout the year has never been greater.”

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That authorities are in a sense overstating the number of tourists visiting the country might very well then be seen as a positive, but raises questions over the longevity of Iceland’s new tourism industry, today one of the largest contributors to GDP along with fishing and banking.

In March Telegraph Travel reported on the potential burst of Iceland’s tourism bubble as year-on-year growth slowed and airlines cut services.

Clive Stacey, managing director of independent travel specialist Discover the World, said the slow down might be in part due to the south coast’s reputation for being “somewhat overrun”. The Icelandic tourist board is committed to spreading visitors to the north, west and east of the island but the task has proved difficult with 99 per cent of arrivals entering the country via’s Reykjavik’s Keflavik Airport.