Dr. Fauci Explains How We Can Avoid Another COVID-19 Surge This Winter
Dr. Anthony Fauci says the three available COVID-19 vaccines are like a “positive wild card” in the fight to end the pandemic.
If vaccinations continue at their current rate, he explains, “the chances of there being a surge are extraordinarily low.”
President Joe Biden has set a goal of delivering at least one vaccine dose to 70% of American adults by July 4.
More than half of all American adults have now received at least one dose of the three available COVID-19 vaccines, according to the the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Cases of the novel coronavirus have been plummeting since February, and they’ll likely keep falling if people continue lining up for their shots, according to Anthony Fauci, M.D., director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
“One thing that is quite certain is that when you have a vaccine, or a group of vaccines, that are as highly effective in the real world ... as these vaccines are, and you get a substantial proportion of the population vaccinated, the chances of there being a surge are extraordinarily low,” Dr. Fauci told The Washington Post this week.
The COVID-19 vaccines, which have been proven to prevent serious and symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections, are like a “positive wild card” on our side. The most recent and serious COVID-19 peak occurred at the end of 2020 and the beginning of 2021, “a point when virtually no one in the country was vaccinated,” Dr. Fauci said.
Now, the vaccines have the power to keep it from happening again. “I really don’t foresee there being the risk of a surge, provided we continue to get people vaccinated at the rate we have now,” Dr. Fauci said.
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Experts agree. “Just look at the numbers,” which have been dropping steadily as vaccinations have ramped up, says Stephen Gluckman, M.D., an infectious disease expert and medical director of Penn Global Medicine. “That really can only be attributed to the vaccine, because the other preventative measures—which are very effective, by the way—were already in place and were not effective enough.”
Masking, social distancing, and hand-washing have still been invaluable in the fight against COVID-19 and other seasonal illnesses; for example, flu activity has been much lower than in previous seasons, likely due to these practices, experts say.
The available vaccines are remarkable, even if they’re not 100% effective, because they decrease the number of serious, symptomatic infections. By keeping people less sick, the vaccines also reduce the risk of mutations, Dr. Gluckman explains, meaning that deadlier or more infectious variants (like the ones that were first identified in the U.K. and California) are less likely to develop and spread.
When will we reach herd immunity?
Earlier this month, President Joe Biden announced he aims to administer at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccines to 70% of American adults by July 4. Nine states, including New Jersey, Hawaii, and New Mexico, have already met this goal at the time of publication. About 62% of American adults have received one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, and about 50% of adults are considered to be fully vaccinated, per the CDC. (Note that these figures only reflect vaccination rates in adults, not the full U.S. population.)
Although the exact percentage of vaccinated people necessary to achieve herd immunity remains unclear, Dr. Fauci has previously estimated that 70% to 85% of the population must be fully vaccinated to significantly prevent community spread. Biden’s plan focuses only on adults, but children are crucial to herd immunity as well; vaccine approval for kids under 12 could hopefully come in the next few months.
Although we don’t know exactly how long individual immunity will last post vaccine, Dr. Fauci isn’t worried about the effects wearing off soon: “I think [the vaccines] will be effective long enough that we will get to the point where we are not going to be necessarily worrying about a surge,” he said in the interview. (Plus, Pfizer, Moderna, and Johnson & Johnson are already in the process of testing booster doses to maintain protection.)
What about the CDC’s updated mask guidelines?
In some areas, face coverings are becoming less common due to the CDC’s updated masking guidance—but that’s dangerous for unvaccinated people, for those who are immunocompromised, and for anyone in a crowded area. It’s still crucial to become fully vaccinated before you go without a mask in high-risk spaces, like hospitals or public transportation.
“Somehow, that might have gotten lost in the announcement about masks,” Dr. Gluckman says. If you choose to wear a mask because you want to, there’s no harm in doing so. It helps keep you and those around you safe.
But ultimately, doing your part for your community means lining up for your dose. “There’s still enough [COVID-19] around for yet another surge,” says Dr. Gluckman. “The way to prevent that is by getting vaccinated.”
This article is accurate as of press time. However, as the COVID-19 pandemic rapidly evolves and the scientific community’s understanding of the novel coronavirus develops, some of the information may have changed since it was last updated. While we aim to keep all of our stories up to date, please visit online resources provided by the CDC, WHO, and your local public health department to stay informed on the latest news. Always talk to your doctor for professional medical advice.
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