Baftas 2024 predictions: who will win, who should win
The British Academy Film Awards are rarely ones to rock the boat, and this year’s nominees are a perfect case in point – the Oscar-season equivalent of a serene paddle around a frost-fringed pond, with moorhens honking picturesquely on the bank.
Sure, those inclined to do so could dredge the scene for snubs: no Leonardo DiCaprio or Andrew Scott in Best Actor; Barbie’s Greta Gerwig, Poor Things’s Yorgos Lanthimos and even Martin Scorsese missing in Best Director, and so on. But the biggest upset wasn’t upsetting at all: it was that voters found space in the Leading and Supporting Actress line-ups for Fantasia Barrino and Danielle Brooks from the forthcoming musical version of The Color Purple, which after the Golden Globes looked a lost cause.
With an entire month still to go until the ceremony, the campaigning is only just warming up, but a picture of where things might land on Sunday February 18 is starting to coalesce. So to labour the boating metaphor to sinking point, let me stick my oar in early: here’s who looks likely to win, and who should.
Best film
Anatomy of a Fall
Poor Things
Should win: Oppenheimer
It’s been said before, but an experimental drama about nuclear fission becoming a huge summer multiplex hit is the most exciting thing to happen to cinema in years.
Will win: Oppenheimer
The combined artistic and commercial clout of Nolan’s film makes it seemingly unbeatable: what more could the British film industry want?
Outstanding British Film
How to Have Sex
Napoleon
The Old Oak
Poor Things
Saltburn
Scrapper
Wonka
The Zone of Interest
Should win: The Zone of Interest
This is a largely impressive, almost dizzyingly wide-ranging list: British cinema had a fine year. But in terms of artistry, craftsmanship and shattering impact, Jonathan Glazer’s Auschwitz drama is leagues ahead.
Will win: Poor Things
Wild performances, verbal fireworks, dreamy world-building of are all irresistible: if Yorgos Lanthimos’s gothic romp doesn’t win Best Film, a de facto silver medal here awaits.
Best Director
Andrew Haigh, All of Us Strangers
Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Should win: Christopher Nolan
Lots of skilful handling of tricky material in the list above, but Nolan’s turning of a physicist biopic into box-office-shaking spectacle with substance is the heftiest achievement.
Will win: Christopher Nolan
Britain’s most successful working director has been nominated in this category only once before, for Dunkirk – and then lost – which is so obviously mad that members should be falling over themselves this year to make sure he wins outright.
Leading Actor
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Barry Keoghan, Saltburn
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Teo Yoo, Past Lives
Should win: Cillian Murphy
Do you pick Murphy, the seasoned supporting artist seizing his moment in the spotlight, or Giamatti, distilling everything he does best down to its funniest, most moving essence? A close thing, but the steely force of Murphy’s work should clinch it.
Will win: Cillian Murphy
Murphy wins at the Baftas, Giamatti wins at the Oscars, and everyone’s happy (except the other nominees, obviously).
Leading Actress
Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Vivian Oparah, Rye Lane
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Should win: Emma Stone
Her five rivals are excellent, but in Poor Things, Stone covers every note they hit collectively and more.
Will win: Emma Stone
Yes, Stone won here once before seven years ago for La La Land, but with a performance this courageously unhinged, no Bafta member is going to feel a second is superfluous.
Supporting Actor
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr, Oppenheimer
Jacob Elordi, Saltburn
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers
Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers
Should win: Robert Downey Jr
After a decade-plus of Downey the Marvel Star, Oppenheimer reminded the world what an extraordinarily compelling actor he could be too.
Will win: Robert Downey Jr
There are few career shifts awards season loves more than this.
Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Claire Foy, All of Us Strangers
Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest
Rosamund Pike, Saltburn
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Should win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
One of those rare technically accomplished turns that looks so effortless, Randolph’s performance in The Holdovers is its secret weapon.
Will win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Rosamund Pike’s uproarious faded It Girl would be a fun alternative, but the greater range of Randolph’s role feels decisive.
Original Screenplay
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Maestro
Past Lives
Should win: The Holdovers
Endlessly funny on the surface with all manner of clever thematic rumblings underneath, David Hemingson’s period comedy knows when to show off and when to let the craft speak for itself.
Will win: Anatomy of a Fall
A courtroom thriller that makes you feel incredibly smart even though you have no idea whether the accused is actually guilty or not: it’s hard to ignore screenwriting as relentlessly ingenious as this.
Adapted Screenplay
All of Us Strangers
American Fiction
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Should win: The Zone of Interest
Borrowing just a single line of dialogue from the Martin Amis source novel, this is a masterclass in turning literature to cinematic ends.
Will win: Poor Things
But then, in a very different way, so is this – and voters will find it hard to resist a pacy literary adaptation whose every line has been honed to maximum quotableness.
Film Not in the English Language
20 Days in Mariupol
Anatomy of a Fall
Past Lives
Society of the Snow
The Zone of Interest
Should win: The Zone of Interest
The Holocaust has been addressed in cinema many times before, but Glazer’s utterly original approach makes it comprehensible in a way no viewer will ever forget.
Will win: Anatomy of a Fall
The most successful French film at the UK box office in more than a decade, Fall has considerable crossover appeal – and that works on Bafta voters too.
Animated Film
The Boy and the Heron
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
Elemental
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Should win: The Boy and the Heron
The film which looks likely to be Studio Ghibli’s last is an ideal swan-song for the studio, revisiting all of their strong suits in ways that feel glisteningly fresh and strange.
Will win: The Boy and the Heron
Bafta goes off the Hollywood piste in this category pleasingly often, and this would be an especially good year in which to do so.
Documentary
20 Days in Mariupol
American Symphony
Beyond Utopia
Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie
Wham!
Should win: 20 Days in Mariupol
Perhaps not a vintage year for documentaries overall, but Mstyslav Chernov’s chronicle of the early days of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shows the form at its most strikingly urgent.
Will win: 20 Days in Mariupol
Ripped-from-the-headlines topicality should play well here, especially when three of its rivals are relatively soft-edged celebrity portraits.
Outstanding British Debut
Blue Bag Life
Bobi Wine: The People’s President
Earth Mama
How to Have Sex
Is There Anybody Out There?
Should win: How to Have Sex
The best debuts are the ones that make you excited to see what their makers’ second, third, even tenth films might look like, and Molly Manning Walker’s felt like the first chirp from an exciting new voice.
Will win: How to Have Sex
Walker’s film is the only nominee to appear in other categories, which strongly indicates a breath of support its rivals lack.
EE Rising Star Award (voted for by the public)
Phoebe Dynevor
Ayo Edebiri
Jacob Elordi
Mia McKenna-Bruce
Sophie Wilde
Should win: Jacob Elordi
A strong line-up in which, unusually, no nominee feels too risen to qualify, but Elordi’s extraordinary current trajectory (Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein and the new Paul Schrader next) means he fits the title best.
Will win: Jacob Elordi
Elordi’s high heartthrob value and recent grabby roles in Saltburn and Priscilla will surely make him the favourite in a public vote.
The winners of the Bafta 2024 Film Awards will be announced on February 18, broadcast on BBC One and BBC iPlayer
