The air routes killed by lockdown – and those that could come back next month

Will cutting the quarantine period from 14 days to five offer a boost for the travel industry? On the face of it, yes, with surveys suggesting at least one in three Britons will be more likely to visit a “high-risk” destination such as France, Italy or Spain. But there are several reasons to believe any rise in bookings will be modest.

The cost of a test to permit an early release – in the region of ￡150 per person – is prohibitive. Will a family of four be willing to add ￡600 to the cost of their holiday?

The Foreign Office is still warning against all but essential travel to “high-risk” countries, so major tour operators will not offer trips, and insurance is trickier to find.

Furthermore, a five-day quarantine is still a major barrier to many, particularly those who cannot work from home.

At best, the change will benefit people travelling to visit family members, as well as a small number of flexible independent travellers. Business travellers can already sidestep quarantine, so for them the change will have limited impact.

Changes to flight schedules, therefore, will probably be minor, but comparing capacity in December 2019 with December 2020 suggests there are a few opportunities for airlines.

Which are the most popular flight routes in December?

In a normal December, it is the US, the Middle East, long-haul hubs like Singapore, and key business travel destinations, such as Frankfurt, Munich and Zurich, that dominate the top end of the table. That remains the case this year, but capacity on these routes has been slashed. On JFK-Heathrow, for example, the busiest route of all, 156,412 seats were offered in December 2019 – that has fallen to 55,906.  Flights to Dubai have also been drastically reduced. Routes to the Middle Eastern hub from Gatwick, Stansted, Edinburgh and Newcastle, accounting for around 90,000 seats in total, have all been scrapped entirely.

What about winter sun?

The likes of the Canary Islands and the Maldives, as well as many Caribbean islands, already have travel corridors, so will not benefit from a reduced quarantine period. Indeed, these routes are already performing relatively well. Next month there are actually more seats on offer to the Maldives, for example, compared with December 2019 –  7,327 vs 3,984. Entirely new routes have been launched too, such as Manchester’s service to Varadero, Cuba, which was not on the schedules last year.

Airlines have cut capacity on routes to non-corridor countries, as you would imagine, so the likes of Mexico, South Africa, Kenya, Egypt, Malta and Cyprus, all of which are welcoming Britons but aren’t yet on the travel green list, could be where they focus their efforts after December 15.

More than 25,000 seats were offered between the UK and Cape Town last December; next month that figure is just 11,187.  John Grant of aviation analyst OAG, said: “Airlines are more likely to add back additional capacity on those routes that are already operating, such as Heathrow – New York, and perhaps to the powerful Middle East hubs such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha, than add back new destinations where, with such short booking lead times, demand for December may be difficult to generate.

“If some new destinations are added then winter sun destinations in the Canary Islands, Caribbean and perhaps South Africa would be high on the list of candidates.”

Which lost routes might return?

In December 2019, 1,326 international routes operated from the UK. This December, that currently stands at 883 – so 443 have been lost. They include San Jose, served by BA last year but now mothballed. Costa Rica is open to British tourists, but not on the travel corridor list – so BA may be tempted to relaunch its route now the quarantine period is being cut.  Other lost routes will not be coming back any time soon. Qantas will not be flying from Heathrow to Perth, for example, as Australia’s borders remain closed.

A reboot for the regions?

The global lockdown has been devastating to connectivity from Britain’s regional airports, and even Gatwick has suffered with airlines shifting many departures to Heathrow in an attempt to consolidate.  Southend, for example, has lost 22 of its 27 routes, and the remaining five are operating at reduced capacity. It seems unlikely that airlines will risk relaunching routes from smaller airports until there is more certainty in the market, something a reduced quarantine period simply does not provide, and Ryanair has said it will continue to operate at close to 30% of its original capacity during December, with only a few extra flights to countries such as Spain, Italy and Poland.