5 Bold Wine-World Predictions for 2025
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It’s been an exciting year in the world of wine, which, among its ups and downs, has seen a decrease in the amount of wine being consumed in the United States and is grappling with impending implementation of a new round of tariffs after barely recovering from those levied in 2018. Harvests were a mixed bag, with outstanding results in both quality and quantity touted in the western U.S. and the lowest yields in memory across all of France and much of Europe. Although extreme weather was responsible for France’s ills, heavy rains in California fortunately fell before and after the grape-growing season, and America was spared of any severe wine country wildfire events. While we are not in the habit of predicting the weather (or even commenting on it, except as it relates to wine) here are our prognostications for what we can expect to see happen in the vinous sphere in 2025.
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Tariffs Will Raise the Price on American Wine, Too
Proposed 20 percent tariffs on all goods imported into the United States will substantially raise prices on wines from Europe and the Southern Hemisphere. While this sounds like a boon for American wine producers, the effects will be more far-reaching, as wine corks are sourced mainly from Portugal as well as Spain, Italy, France, and northern Africa, and many wine bottles come from European producers, so American wine prices will rise as a result. Even if much of the world is spared and only Chinese goods have tariffs added, this will affect wine bottles and other packaging such as boxes, aluminum caps, and foil toppers that are made there, again impacting consumer costs. Rising wine prices will be a burden for importers, distributors, retailers, and restaurants, potentially causing loss of income or jobs. Impending mass deportations can also cause a severe labor shortage in the vineyards, as many vine workers hail from Mexico and Central America.
Vineyards Will Be Ripped Out in Record Numbers
A 2024 bumper crop in California’s vineyards and a decline in consumer wine purchases have led to a grape glut that saw tons of grapes unsold or even unpicked this year. Almost a year ago we reported on changes at Washington’s largest winery, Ste. Michelle Wine Estates, and the trickle-down effect on grape-growers; a similar situation is taking place in California in part due to Vintage Wine Estate’s bankruptcy proceedings. While removing older vineyards and replanting with younger vines or more popular varieties is an ongoing cycle in viticulture, the decrease in the amount of wine being drunk by Americans—especially at the entry level—is having a severe impact on grape farmers, who are forced to remove vines rather than bear the expense of growing grapes they will not be able to sell.
Italian Whites Are on the Rise
Your favorite Chardonnay and Sauvignon Blanc will have major competition in the white-wine aisle. We are seeing expanded lineups of white Italian grapes on wine lists, and it’s moved beyond Pinot Grigio. Every time we talk to sommeliers or other wine experts on topics such as increased client requests or wines that are suitable for aging, white varieties from Italy are mentioned with increasing frequency. Look for Vermentino, Fiano, Arneis, Falanghina, Verdicchio, Carricante, Grillo, Garganega, which is the main grape of Soave, and Cortese, the principal variety in Gavi. And we just know somebody’s going to tell us we forgot one!
Back to the Stone Age
While oak still reigns supreme as the aging vessel of choice for wine, expect to hear more about fermentation and aging in granite, concrete, sandstone, and terra-cotta. Everything old is new again, and the modern revival of this ancient winemaking technique first took hold with the rise of the natural wine movement and has spread throughout the ranks. Concrete, granite, and sandstone are neutral vessels that are less porous than wood but not airtight like stainless steel, while terra-cotta tinaja from Spain and qvevri from Georgia can impart a sense of earthiness to wine. Either way, as you read the wine press and chat with sommeliers at your favorite restaurants, you are bound to hear about wine made in these old-school vessels.
The Winery Will Come to You
To reach a broader circle of loyal customers, high-end wineries in Napa and elsewhere will increase the number of cities in which they host wine dinners for top customers and their friends. Programs like Lokoya Collectors Premiere, which offers personalized VIP dinners and pop-up events around the country, are becoming more prevalent. As wineries fine-tune their direct-to-consumer channels and realize that a visit to wine country is not on everyone’s agenda every year, wining and dining consumers closer to their own homes is a way to reward their best clients while bringing new friends into the fold.
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