Why the biggest hit of the year might NOT be the strongest Grammy contender for Best Country Song
The Grammy for Best Country Song has gone to some of the most iconic tunes ever in the genre. From all-time classics like Glen Campbell‘s “Gentle on My Mind” and Willie Nelson‘s “On the Road Again” to modern smash hits like Lady A’s “Need You Now” and critically acclaimed gems like Kacey Musgraves’s “Space Cowboy,” voters are often very careful and accurate in awarding the very best in country music. This year’s set of nominees is, in my opinion, one of the strongest the category has ever seen, with a mix of Grammy favorites and already-classic country songs facing off.
Perhaps the only song that doesn’t have much of a chance to win here is Brandy Clark’s “Buried.” The track isn’t really a big hit or particularly acclaimed, and Clark will likely fare better in the Americana categories anyway. Still, Clark got six nominations this year, so it’s unfair to say she has no shot at all. She’s also a big academy favorite despite not having any wins yet; she’s currently tied with Bjork for the most nominations for a female artist without a win. So while her victories will more likely come in the American roots field, it wouldn’t be wild to think the love there could translate to a sweep for Clark, especially with country and Americana categories merged into a single voting field this year.
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The other four nominees all have advantages and disadvantages that make the category hard to predict. For example, voters might simply go for Chris Stapleton’s “White Horse” here. The track was a big hit for Stapleton, peaking in the top 20 on the Billboard Hot 100. However, Stapleton will likely win big next year when the rest of his album will be eligible, and there are bigger hits in this category as well as more acclaimed tracks, so it isn’t really necessary to award him now, although Stapleton is so loved by the academy that they still might.
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There’s also Tyler Childers with his hit “In Your Love,” which went viral after featuring a video advocating for gay rights and black lung prevention. It is hard to predict it with bigger hits in the category. That said, Childers overperformed in the nominations, earning five including one for Best Americana Performance as well as Best Country Album. All that love for Childers would make it odd for him to go home empty-handed, but stranger things have happened.
Also nominated are two number-one hits. The first is Zach Bryan and Kacey Musgraves’s “I Remember Everything,” which is also poised to win Best Country Duo/Group Performance, while Bryan’s self-titled album has a good chance of winning Best Country Album. While the song is a big hit, will Bryan really go from being almost entirely snubbed at the last Grammys to winning three? It’s possible, but it does feel like a weird switch-up from voters, especially as he was a huge star already with his last album that they overlooked, “American Heartbreak.”
Then there’s Morgan Wallen’s “Last Night.” The song’s biggest obstacle is the fact that it only has this one nomination. However, last year’s winner, Cody Johnson’s “Til You Can’t,” also was solely nominated for Best Country Song, so that’s not a deal-breaker. It seems like voters chose to only nominate “Last Night” here because the artist isn’t credited as a writer on the song, meaning they could vote for the massive hit without having to award its controversial singer. As such, wouldn’t “Last Night” win just like “Til You Can’t” did? After all, the song was the biggest hit of 2023 in the US.
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The difference is that “Til You Can’t” had actually won a CMA Award for Single of the Year, demonstrating industry support for it, and it was a very sentimental song about living life to the fullest before we pass away. “Last Night,” on the other hand, flopped at the CMAs, getting zero nominations, and Wallen lost his mere three noms from the association. That could mean that, even with the abundant success of the song, the industry doesn’t really care that much for it.
I think there’s a path here for “I Remember Everything” to win. While “White Horse” and “In Your Love” are hits too, it would make sense for voters to ultimately go for the Bryan and Musgraves combo, especially as a number-one hit from two acclaimed songwriters. Still, this category could really go to any of the five nominees and it wouldn’t be much of a shock.
Will win: Zach Bryan feat. Kacey Musgraves, “I Remember Everything”
Could win: Chris Stapleton, “White Horse”
Dark horse: Tyler Childers, “In Your Love”
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