Way too early Emmy odds: ‘Severance’ takes the lead in Best Drama Series
Are the outies at the Emmys ready to show Severance some major love after its three-year absence?
Apple TV+'s buzzy sci-fi series currently claims the No. 1 position in Gold Derby's Best Drama Series Emmy odds. Season 2 has been airing since mid-January, with a finale date scheduled for March 21. In 2022, the first season of Severance nabbed 14 total nominations and won two Emmys for main title design and music composition, but it fell short of the top prize. Will it expand the haul this year?
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Created by Dan Erickson, Severance follows a group of characters played by Adam Scott, Britt Lower, John Turturro, and Zach Cherry as workers at the sinister Lumon Industries who agree to separate their workplace memories from their external memories. This weekend at the Severance panel at SXSW, director-executive producer Ben Stiller said, "It's been fun to watch how the audiences have gone beyond the concept … and get emotionally invested with the characters."
Second place in our odds is The Last of Us Season 2, which debuts April 13 on HBO. (Watch the trailer). Pedro Pascal and Bella Ramsey, both Emmy nominees for the first season in 2023, star as survivors of a zombie apocalypse caused by a mass fungal infection. The horror show, adapted from the popular video game series of the same name, received 24 Emmy nominations for Season 1 and won eight: guest actor Nick Offerman, guest actress Storm Reid, main title design, picture editing, prosthetic makeup, sound editing, sound mixing, and visual effects.
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The Thailand edition of The White Lotus ranks in third place to win Best Drama Series. Season 3 explores wellness and spirituality against a beautiful backdrop of monkeys, massages, and mixed drinks, with the eight new episodes airing now on HBO. The sprawling ensemble cast is led by Natasha Rothwell, Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Parker Posey, Leslie Bibb, Carrie Coon, Michelle Monaghan, and Patrick Schwarzenegger. The first two seasons of Mike White's anthology series won 15 Emmy Awards.
Apple's Slow Horses Season 4 aired in the fall and is hoping to improve upon its Emmy tally last year, where it won Best Drama Writing for showrunner Will Smith. (No, not that Will Smith.) After being snubbed for its first two outings, Season 3 broke through with nine bids including Best Drama Series and lead actor Gary Oldman, who plays the unkempt yet brilliant former MI5 agent Jackson Lamb.
Rounding out the top eight most likely Best Drama Series nominees: Netflix's The Diplomat Season 2, Max's The Pitt Season 1, Peacock's The Day of the Jackal Season 1, and Netflix's Squid Game Season 2.
Gold Derby's Emmy odds are based on the combined forecasts of more than 1,600 people, including experts we’ve polled from major media outlets, editors who cover awards year-round for this website, and the mass of users who make up our biggest predictions bloc. Track the 2025 Emmys by exploring all of our charts and graphs, and be sure to sound off in our forums.
BEST DRAMA SERIES
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Severance — 9/2
2. The Last of Us — 5/1
3. The White Lotus — 13/2
4. Slow Horses — 15/2
5. The Diplomat — 17/2
6. The Pitt — 15/1
7. The Day of the Jackal — 18/1
8. Squid Game — 20/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Andor, Paradise, The Handmaid's Tale, House of the Dragon, Presumed Innocent, Bad Sisters, Yellowjackets, Your Friends and Neighbors
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