An Unpredictable Oscars Season Is Currently Underway Where Anything Can (and Will) Happen
The Oscars playoffs are in full swing.
All the glitz, glamour, and chaos kicked off with the Gotham Awards, which set the tone for what promises to be an unpredictable and heated race. The New York ceremony delivered the first shock of the season when A24’s dark dramedy “A Different Man,” starring Sebastian Stan, overtook presumptive favorite “Anora” to land the top prize.
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A day later, the New York Film Critics Circle added to the drama by naming Brady Corbet’s historical epic “The Brutalist” best film. Then “The Brutalist” was nearly shut out of the Independent Spirit Awards the next morning. That’s where “Anora” led the nomination tally alongside the spring indie sleeper “I Saw the TV Glow.”
Meanwhile, the National Board of Review threw its weight behind Universal’s undeniably popular “Wicked,” giving an extra prize to Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande. Acting honors also were bestowed on Daniel Craig’s work in the cerebral drama “Queer” and Nicole Kidman’s turn as a CEO engaged in a dangerous affair in “Babygirl.” All this highlights the growing tension between box office dominance and indie cachet.
The weekend brought more twists when the Los Angeles Film Critics Association crowned “Anora” its top winner, a move that left Oscar pundits buzzing. To cap it all off, the Golden Globes unveiled their best of 2024: “Emilia Pérez” led with a record-breaking tally, signaling its strength among the new international voters.
But what does it all mean?
If you’ve been anywhere near social media, you’ve seen the hot takes: “It’s over! ‘The Brutalist’ is winning Best Picture!” or “‘Emilia Pérez’ hasn’t shown up anywhere. It’s dead in the water.”
Here’s a reality check: Critics aren’t Oscar voters.
History has shown that an early awards-season sweep doesn’t guarantee Oscar glory. Take Guillermo del Toro’s “The Shape of Water” in 2017. At this point in the season, the romantic fantasy about a woman who falls in love with a fish hadn’t made a splash. It went on to win best picture at the Oscars.
The lesson? Awards season is long, and momentum shifts constantly. What seems inevitable in December can unravel by February when ballots are in hand.
Studios are flooding the industry with screenings, Q&As, and mixers, especially for contenders that have yet to be released—such as James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic “A Complete Unknown” with Timothée Chalamet and Robert Eggers’ horror flick “Nosferatu” with Lily-Rose Depp.
The truth is, many industry voters are just beginning to catch up. A veteran member of the Academy’s Producers Branch admits to Variety, “I’ve seen four movies this year.”
Which ones? “Inside Out 2,” “Gladiator II,” “Joker: Folie à Deux” and “Dune: Part Two”—all sequels.
The member adds, “I’ve heard a lot about some great movies. I’m dying to see ‘Brutalist,’ Pedro [Almodóvar’s] film, and the Dylan one. But you can’t get to everything.”
This lag in viewing underscores the importance of campaigns. The hope is that word-of-mouth hits like “The Brutalist” and “Anora” can stay top of mind and other hopefuls, like “Conclave” and “Emilia Pérez,” can start making some noise.
As the season unfolds, one thing is certain: Anything can happen.
Below are this week’s Oscar predictions (in alphabetical order) in all 23 categories. In addition to the first projections for the winners of the Golden Globes.
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Oscars Predictions Tracking
(Dec. 12, 2024)
Best Picture
“Anora”
“The Brutalist”
“A Complete Unknown”
“Conclave”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Nickel Boys”
“A Real Pain”
“The Substance”
“Wicked”
Director
Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Pérez”
Sean Baker, “Anora”
Edward Berger, “Conclave”
Jon M. Chu, “Wicked”
Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”
Actor
Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”
Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”
Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing”
Jesse Eisenberg, “A Real Pain”
Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave”
Actress
Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked”
Karla Sofía Gascón, “Emilia Pérez”
Angelina Jolie, “Maria”
Mikey Madison, “Anora”
Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here”
Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov, “Anora”
Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Edward Norton, “A Complete Unknown”
Guy Pearce, “The Brutalist”
Denzel Washington, “Gladiator II”
Supporting Actress
Danielle Deadwyler, “The Piano Lesson”
Selena Gomez, “Emilia Pérez”
Ariana Grande, “Wicked”
Isabella Rossellini, “Conclave”
Zoe Salda?a, “Emilia Pérez”
Original Screenplay
“All We Imagine as Light”
“Anora”
“The Brutalist”
“A Real Pain”
“The Substance”
Adapted Screenplay
“Conclave”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Nickel Boys”
“Sing Sing”
“Wicked”
Animated Feature
“Flow”
“Inside Out 2”
“Memoir of a Snail”
“Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl”
“The Wild Robot”
Production Design
“Blitz”
“The Brutalist”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Gladiator II”
“Wicked”
Cinematography
“The Brutalist”
“Conclave”
“Maria”
“Nickel Boys”
“Nosferatu”
Costume Design
“Beetlejuice Beetlejuice”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga”
“Gladiator II”
“Wicked”
Film Editing
“Conclave”
“Emilia Pérez”
“September 5”
“The Substance”
“Wicked”
Makeup and Hairstyling
“Dune: Part Two”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Sasquatch Sunset”
“The Substance”
“Wicked”
Sound
“A Complete Unknown”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Gladiator II”
“The Substance”
“Wicked”
Visual Effects
“Dune: Part Two”
“Gladiator II”
“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes”
“Mufasa: The Lion King
“Wicked”
Original Score
“The Brutalist”
“Challengers”
“Conclave”
“Emilia Pérez”
“The Wild Robot”
Original Song
“Forbidden Road” from “Better Man”
“El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez”
“Beautiful That Way” from “The Last Showgirl”
“I Always Wanted a Brother” from “Mufasa: The Lion King”
“The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight”
Documentary Feature
“Black Box Diaries”
“Dahomey”
“Daughters”
“Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat”
“Sugarcane”
International Feature
“Emilia Pérez” from France
“The Girl with the Needle” from Denmark
“I’m Still Here” from Brazil
“Kneecap” from Ireland”
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig” from Germany
Animated Short
“An Almost Christmas Story”
“Back to Normal”
“Humantis”
“Remember Us”
“Silent Panorama”
Documentary Short
“I Am Ready, Warden”
“Julia’s Stepping Stones”
“Makayla’s Voice: A Letter to the World”
“Motorcycle Mary”
“A Swim Lesson”
Live Action Short
“Dovecote”
“The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent”
“Motherland”
“Ripe!”
“Room Taken”
Golden Globes First Winner Predictions
Best Picture (Drama): “Conclave”
Best Picture (Musical/Comedy): “Anora”
Actor (Drama): Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”
Actor (Musical/Comedy): Jesse Eisenberg, “A Real Pain”
Actress (Drama): Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here”
Actress (Musical/Comedy): Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked”
Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Supporting Actress: Ariana Grande, “Wicked”
Director: Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Pérez”
Screenplay: “The Substance”
Original Score: “The Brutalist”
Original Song: “El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez”
Animated Feature: “The Wild Robot”
Non-English Language: “All We Imagine as Light”
Cinematic and Box Office Achievement: “Wicked”
TV Series (Drama): “Shōgun”
TV Series (Musical/Comedy): “Nobody Wants This”
Limited Series: “Baby Reindeer”
Stand Up Comedy: Nikki Glaser, “Nikki Glaser: Someday You’ll Die”
TV Actor (Drama): Hiroyuki Sanada, “Shōgun”
TV Actor (Musical/Comedy): Ted Danson, “A Man on the Inside”
Actor (Limited): Colin Farrell, “The Penguin”
TV Actress (Drama): Anna Sawai, “Shōgun”
TV Actress (Musical/Comedy): Jean Smart, “Hacks”
Actress (Limited): Jodie Foster, “True Detective: Night Country”
Supporting Actor (TV): Javier Bardem, “Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story”
Supporting Actress (TV): Liza Colón-Zayas, “The Bear”
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