Sundance 2025: Will Indie Box Office Revival Spur Dealmaking?
The independent film community settling into Park City where the next crop of indie films will launch at the 2025 Sundance Film Festival has something to celebrate: a 2024 where audiences turned out and started to turn the market around.
“In the independent theatrical world post-Covid, we were asking ‘Are we going to exist?’ And the answer is, ‘Yes. We can’,” says producer Erik Feig, founder and CEO of Picturestart. “These movies are working on a financial level. They are working on a cultural level, and that’s what theatrical movies are all about.”
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“I’m feeling that there’s definitely more opportunity bubbling around in terms of the audiences that are showing up,” agrees Lia Buman, co-founder of Tango Entertainment. “And then, when a film is hitting its target with its audience, that’s how word of mouth builds and then that’s how they grow and grow. It’s almost old school. But I think it’s happening again … It feels like the floor is just being lifted on all of our films.”
The rebound has been broad, buoying indie films from Neon, A24, Focus Features and Searchlight Pictures, to Mubi, Sideshow/Janus Films and more.
Last year’s Sundance did its part, premiering A Real Pain and Thelma, Dìdi, My Old Ass and Kneecap, which all had nice box office runs. So did Late Night With the Devil, which rocked March, and Civil War in April, leading into Longlegs and Sing Sing in July and surprise hit The Substance in August. Audiences flocked to Sony/Crunchyroll anime, Angel Studios films, Fathom offerings, Indian fare and K-pop concert films. The fall started to feel like a real recovery with a diverse indie slate including Terrifier 3, Anora, Conclave, Heretic and animated Flow, leading to a crowded indie holiday frame not seen in years with Nosferatu, A Complete Unknown, Babygirl, The Last Showgirl, The Brutalist, Nickel Boys and more. Oscar nominations announced this morning will give some an added bump.
“There are a lot of good case studies right now. There are a lot of good, kind of happy, stories of acquisitions that worked out,” says Feig, who has a great Sundance record, most recently selling Theater Camp in 2023 (to Searchlight) and Cha Cha Real Smooth (to Apple TV+) in 2022. This year, he’s bringing Together by Michael Shanks, an Australian-set psychological horror starring Dave Franco and Allison Brie premiering in the Midnight section.
Lia Buman worked on Together as well and is debuting satire Magic Farm, the second film from El Planeta director Amalia Ulman, and Eva Victor’s Sorry, Baby, with Barry Jenkins a producer.
“I’m thinking distributors will need more films. I think the demand is going to be high. Whether the deals are high I don’t know,” she said of the festival. “My hope is for many films to find homes and healthy deals. That’s what the ecosystem needs.”
Behind The Rebound
Indie distributors Deadline spoke with in recent weeks offered a dozen reasons why things are better, but caveats also. Indie film is not fully back. It is not the same as it was. It is not apples to apples from pre-Covid. Fewer movies platform slowly. The theaters they expand into are different. There’s no longer a floor to how little money an indie film will make if it fails to connect. The recovery could fizzle.
That said, here’s the good news.
There has been a steadier stream of appealing movies to bring audiences out. Younger people are flocking to all kinds of films, and older demos are back in force for some. A generational change was needed as the aging of the arthouse moviegoer was an existential threat before Covid.
The dine-in Alamo Drafthouse chain with bars and old printing presses and kung fu themes is expanding and thriving, picking up slack for longtime indie stalwart Landmark Theatres, which has been closing locations. AMC Grove and AMC Century City are doing well with indie films in Los Angeles, where the market was pummeled by the loss of the ArcLight/Cinerama Dome and Landmark Pico.
Exhibitors in general are upgrading theaters, adding liquor, fancy food, themed popcorn buckets and large-screen formats that can play as well with some independent films as with studio fare.
Loyalty plans at chains from AMC (Stubs) to Angelika are helping to lure moviegoers. Letterboxd, the cinephile social media platform, has become a powerful marketing tool. And filmmakers, distributors and exhibitors are working together to creatively “eventize” films.
Distributors are recognizing that theatrical does not cannibalize PVOD but makes it stronger and premium video on demand, which expanded during the pandemic, offers a good financial backstop. They are getting savvier about release strategies in a new landscape of fewer windows and experimenting with more bespoke plans tailored to each film.
New distributors are entering the market or stepping up. Apple and Max may not be buying much this Sundance, some producers anticipate, but Mubi may comes in. Or Metrograph. If the audience is showing up, distributors will meet that demand.
Will Sundance Feel The Love?
So will a newfound optimism ripple into Sundance? Producers tend to think so even with what some note are fewer marquee directors on the roster.
André Holland, who is at the festival with Love, Brooklyn by Rachael Abigail Holder, a first-time filmmaker, says, “We’re getting phone calls and emails from people all the time saying, ‘I can’t wait to see it’ or ‘Can I see it early?’” The film, backed by Steven Soderbergh, follows three longtime Brooklynites navigating careers, love, loss and friendship against the rapidly changing landscape of their beloved city. Holland produced and also stars with Nicole Beharie, DeWanda Wise, Roy Wood Jr., Cassandra Freeman and Cadence Reese.
His company is out pitching other indie projects too. This time last year, he says, “when we were out pitching some of these same projects, there wasn’t as much excitement around them as I feel there is now. People seem to be more interested.”
“It’s nice to go into this festival coming off a year where there are a number of films, of success stories, that you can point to,” says Michael Heimler, a partner at Black Bear, at Sundance with buzzy title Train Dreams by Clint Bentley, written by Bentley and Greg Kwedar, the duo behind Sing Sing. Based on the 2011 novella by Denis Johnson, it stars Joel Edgerton as a day laborer building America’s railroads at the start of the 20th century.
He believes the enthusiasm of 2024 will rub off. Since Covid, “there’s been uncertainty as far as where and when and who would be distributing your films. And the good news is, that with the success of films over the last 12 months, there’s inevitably going to be more competition among the distributors because they can point to economic and critical success. There’s a blueprint they can follow. So, this festival could [see] more competitive bidding with more films,” he said.
It’s going to come down to the films themselves.
Does it “have something to say? Does it have an audience? Is it distinctive?” asks Feig. He finds much to like across the Sundance lineup. And every year “there’s a random movie that is on no one’s radar that just kind of emerges and everyone is talking about it.”
“As someone who has not been living in my house for a week and a half,” dealing with what the LA wildfires wrought, “I am really looking forward to being in Park City at Sundance and having the distraction of the festival, which I really love. It’s such a joyful place to be. It’s such a celebration of creativity … and I think this is just we need right now.”
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