SAG/DGA Film Analysis: How The Snubs, Surprises, And Successes Affect The State Of Oscar Race
After the first two major guilds weighed in this morning, it is still very clear, as it has been for some time, that it is a “Barbenheimer” world and we just live in it.
Neither component of the summer blockbuster duo of Barbie and Oppenheimer saw its path to Oscar disrupted in any way due to the nomination announcements of the crucially important SAG and DGA awards. They tied for the lead with four each at SAG, including Outstanding Cast, and Barbie’s Greta Gerwig and Oppenheimer’s Christopher Nolan are on the list of five finalists at the Directors Guild, each group recently significantly right in lockstep with eventual Oscar winners in acting and directing.
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It is a must to make these cuts, and the golden pair succeeded. In fact, I was not surprised at all by the DGA list, which also includes the DGA-beloved Martin Scorsese for Killers of the Flower Moon, Yorgos Lanthimos for Poor Things and Alexander Payne for The Holdovers, the latter benefitting from a particularly heavy presence on the Q&A and reception circuit this season and clearly building momentum.
You can probably count on four of these nominees at DGA to make the cut in the Oscar Best Director category, with the fifth slot going international there (as has been the trend in recent years), with The Zone of Interest or Anatomy of a Fall as the likely benefactors. Also missing from DGA today was Bradley Cooper for his tour-de-force work on Maestro, leaving Gerwig as the only actor to get the directors approval (her second after 2017’s Lady Bird). For his 2018 directorial debut on A Star Is Born, Cooper got a rare two nominations in both DGA film categories including First Time Director.
Speaking of that, two other newer names, Cord Jefferson for American Fiction and Celine Song for Past Lives, got nominated for First Time Feature Director, which certainly is some consolation even if they are longer shots to make the Oscar cut. But neither is out of it, for sure. In fact, American Fiction was one of the key success stories of the SAG Awards film nominations, not only getting its ensemble in the mix for the crucial Outstanding Cast prize but as expected lead actor Jeffrey Wright and, not quite as expected but welcome, Sterling K. Brown for Supporting Actor — a very strong showing.
On the other hand, the bubble burst a little for Poor Things, which missed out on the Cast nomination, likely in favor of The Color Purple, thus settling for individual nominations for Emma Stone and actors’ favorite Willem Dafoe, who made the final in supporting over co-star Mark Ruffalo. Killers of the Flower Moon did well by landing individual nominations for Lily Gladstone and Robert De Niro, but star Leonardo DiCaprio will have to settle for being part of the Outstanding Cast nomination the film received. He was snubbed in the lead actor category.
Like the DGA list, international favorites and Cannes Film Festival sensations Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest were AWOL at SAG, a particular slight for German star Sandra Hüller, so great in both of them and whose name has been floated for a potential two acting Oscar nominations. Statistically now she will have to defy the odds and do it without help from SAG (Oscar voting starts Thursday and runs through Tuesday). The snub of Netflix’s May December by both DGA for Todd Haynes and especially SAG for its entire cast — notably Julianne Moore and Charles Melton, who have been prominent at other precursor events — is a warning sign. That’s because the guilds are the groups that have voting members most in common with the Academy, and these contests are the ones pundits follow most closely in predicting where the Oscar winds might be blowing.
Netflix, though, has to be happy that, in addition to Cooper and co-star Carey Mulligan, its Nyad stars Annette Bening and Jodie Foster won nominations, as did Colman Domingo for Rustin. And Neon has to be pleased that its Ferrari supporting contender Penelope Cruz was recognized by SAG after failing to gain traction in the earlier critics contests, or at Golden Globes and Critics Choice.
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Take heart. All is not lost if you didn’t get the love from SAG today. Although the guild has had a stellar recent track record of matching the Academy on eventual Oscar winners, it has been more spotty in terms of lining up in nominations in the four acting categories the two share in common. Last year, SAG went 12-for-20, the year before it was 16 of 20, before that 14 of 20, and in both 2018 and 2019, it was 15 of 20.
Next up among the four major guilds will be the Producers Guild film nominations announcement on Friday, and then BAFTA comes up on January 18. Oscar nominations are announced on January 23. BTW, if you are eager to see where the Writers Guild stands on all of this, you will have to wait until February 21 for its nominations, that late date due to the strike delaying its awards calendar. WGA’s awards ceremony will be held on April 14 — more than a month past the Oscars (!).
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