Who is Sabrina Carpenter’s ‘Coincidence’ about? Fans think they know

“Coincidence,” an early standout track on Sabrina Carpenter’s sixth studio album “Short n’ Sweet,” has fans entering detective mode.

On X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, listeners have already started to analyze the song’s lyrics.

Could the song, which is about a man going back and forth between two women, be inspired by someone in Carpenter’s life?

Internet sleuths are connecting the dots between Carpenter, 25, and her rumored relationship with artist Shawn Mendes, 26. The two were linked in the spring of 2023.

In April of that year, Mendes reunited with his ex, Camila Cabello, 27, at Coachella and shared a kiss that went viral. The on again, off-again pair then broke up.

In a March 6 appearance on Alex Cooper’s “Call Her Daddy” podcast, Cabello opened up about the split, saying that it “wasn’t even like a decision.”

“I think you’re just kind of like, ‘Yeah this doesn’t really … it’s not a fit — it doesn’t feel right,’” she said. “Luckily, I was in a place in my life where … it took us both less time to be like, ‘This doesn’t feel right, and we don’t really need to try so hard to make it work. It’s all good, let’s move on.’”

Fans hear echoes of the story in the “Coincidence” lyrics when Carpenter sings, “Your car drove itself from L.A. to her thighs/ Palm Springs looks nice, but who’s by your side?/ Damn it, she looks kinda like the girl you outgrew/ Least that’s what you said.”

She touches on the reunited couple’s breakup at the end of the song, singing, “What a coincidence/ Oh, wow, you just broke up again/ What a coincidence.”

Other songs on the album are also fueling speculation that her rumored relationship with Mendes, and his relationship with Cabello, inspired parts of “Short n’ Sweet.”

In the song “Taste,” Carpenter addresses a woman who is dating her ex: “I heard you’re back together and if that’s true/ You’ll just have to taste me when he’s kissin’ you/ If you want forever, I bet you do/ Just know you’ll taste me too,” Carpenter sings.

Maybe the songs are inspired by a real-life love triangle — or maybe it’s all just a coincidence.

What is the song ‘Coincidence’ about?

The lyrics of “Coincidence” tell the story of an unexpected love triangle.

In the first verse, Carpenter expresses that even when she’s with her partner, his ex is still in the picture.

She sings, “The second I put my head on your chest/ She knew, she’s got a real sixth sense/ Now her name comes up once, then it comes up twice/ And without her even bein’ here, she’s back in your life/ Now she’s in the same damn city on the same damn night.”

Carpenter sarcastically describes the turn of events as a “coincidence” and implies that her partner’s reconnection with his ex isn’t as random as it appears. “And you’ve lost all your common sense/ What a coincidence,” she sings.

In the second verse, Carpenter notices that her partner is different now that his ex is back in his life. “Last week, you didn’t have any doubts/ This week, you’re holding space for her tongue in your mouth," she sings.

She then details how the ex is attempting to rekindle emotions from her previous relationship with Carpenter’s partner: “Now shе’s sendin’ you some pictures wеarin’ less and less/ Tryna turn the past into the present tense, huh/ Suckin’ up to all of your mutual friends.”

By the bridge, Carpenter’s partner has officially returned to his ex, despite previously assuring Carpenter that his former partner was “the girl (he) outgrew.”

“What a surprise, your phone just died/ Your car drove itself from L.A. to her thighs/ Palm Springs looks nice, but who’s by your side?/ Damn it, she looks kinda like the girl you outgrew/ Least that’s what you said.”

Once more, Carpenter calls the events a “coincidence” — but this time, she’s also referring to the fact that her ex and his partner have broken up yet again. “What a coincidence/ Oh, wow, you just broke up again/ What a coincidence,” she sings.

Read the lyrics to ‘Coincidence’

The second I put my head on your chest

She knew, she’s got a real sixth sense

Now her name comes up once, then it comes up twice

And without her even bein’ here, she’s back in your life

Now she’s in the same damn city on the same damn night

And you’ve lost all your common sense

What a coincidence

Oh, na-na, na-na-na-na

Oh, na-na, na-na-na-na

Last week, you didn’t have any doubts

This week, you’re holding space for her tongue in your mouth

Now shе’s sendin’ you some pictures wеarin’ less and less

Tryna turn the past into the present tense, huh

Suckin’ up to all of your mutual friends

And you’ve lost all your common sense (You’ve lost all your common sense)

The way you told me the truth, minus seven percent (Minus seven percent)

What a coincidence, uh

Oh, na-na, na-na-na-na

Oh, na-na, na-na-na-na

Na-na-na-na, na-na-na-na

Na-na-na-na, na-na-na-na

What a surprise, your phone just died

Your car drove itself from L.A. to her thighs

Palm Springs looks nice, but who’s by your side?

Damn it, she looks kinda like the girl you outgrew

Least that’s what you said (That’s what you said)

What a coincidence

Oh, wow, you just broke up again

What a coincidence

Oh, na-na, na-na-na-na (Coincidence)

Oh, na-na, na-na-na-na (Coincidence)

Na-na-na-na, na-na-na-na (Coincidence)

Na-na-na-na, na-na-na-na (Coincidence)

This article was originally published on TODAY.com