Oscars Best Picture breakdown: ‘Anora’ holds the lead with ‘Conclave’ close behind
Originally published Feb. 5, 2025 at 11 a.m. PT; updated Feb. 24, 2025 at 8 a.m. PT after the SAG Awards results.
Heading into the Producers Guild and Directors Guild Awards, it had been several years since the Best Picture race had been this crowded and fraught. Before the industry weighed in on the race, a solid argument could have been made for six of the 10 Best Picture nominees to win at the 97th Oscars on March 2: Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, and Wicked. However, after Anora pulled off upset wins at both the Producers Guild and Directors Guild Awards (not to mention its win at the Critics Choice Awards), it became clear frontrunner in the race. But that was before Conclave made its final charge and stands poised to pull off the upset. Ahead is the Oscars Best Picture breakdown.
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Frontrunner: Anora
The movie that once looked like a spoiler in the race — the designation we gave when this breakdown of the Best Picture race was initially published — is now its frontrunner. However, maybe it always was: Anora was the top pick in the Best Picture field through most of the season and only fell behind The Brutalist after the Sean Baker film was blanked at the Golden Globes (notably a non-industry event). Neon’s Palme d’Or winner has quietly performed consistently for months, hitting every significant milestone — including wins at the Producers Guild, Directors Guild, and Writers Guild Awards, and key nominations from the Screen Actors Guild (where Anora was up for Best Ensemble) and BAFTA Awards (where it was nominated for Best Film). With six Oscar nominations, Anora didn’t miss a single predicted spot with Academy members — and while the explicit sex and nudity might be a turn-off for older Academy members, this is also the same group that just rewarded Poor Things with four Oscars last year, including Best Actress for Emma Stone. (It’s a matter of taste, but nothing in Anora is more explicit than what was shown in Poor Things.) The path for an Anora Best Picture win looks better after winning on a preferential ballot against eight of its fellow Best Picture nominees (including notably Conclave) at the Producers Guild Awards. But the last week has been a little tough on the erstwhile underdog. Anora lost Best Film at the BAFTA Awards to Conclave, a result that could be written off as the British Film Academy going for the hometown favorite (Conclave also won Best British Film, and the BAFTAs have a clear infatuation with the work of Edward Berger after their embrace of his papal thriller and his previous outing, All Quiet on the Western Front). But Anora also lost its Best Ensemble bid to Conclave at the SAG Awards, which was the worst possible outcome for the film in terms of its competition. Still, with its wins at the Producers and Directors Guild — two precursors that remain the gold standard for Oscar prognositcation — Anora remains in front of its top competition if by the skin of its teeth.
Potential Spoiler: Conclave
As controversy has raged around several Oscar nominees this year — most infamously Emilia Pérez — Conclave has quietly emerged as a consensus choice, and its recent industry wins at the BAFTA Awards and SAG Awards have it well-positioned to pull off the Best Picture upset. Berger's film is also arguably the most timely of this group: an old-fashioned movie about political disagreement and the ability of one person to stand up for what is right and change hearts and minds. If the Academy wants to make a statement about the current political climate in the U.S. and abroad, no movie winning would speak louder than Conclave. It is also the odds-on pick to win Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Editing, which boosts the Focus Features release: those categories often align with the Best Picture choice. However, if Conclave were to take down Anora at the Oscars on Sunday night, it would have to break significant historical precedent. After winning at the BAFTA Awards and SAG Awards, several movies have won Best Picture. Still, no film has ever won Best Picture with just those two precursor wins and nothing else from the Producers Guild, Directors Guild, or Writers Guild. (Shakespeare in Love came closest: It won Best Picture in 1999 after winning the SAG ensemble prize, and it later took home the BAFTA Award for Best Film after the Oscars ceremony; however, Shakespeare in Love was also a winner at the Writers Guild Awards, where Conclave wasn't eligible.)
Underdog: The Brutalist
With 10 nominations, it would seem not very smart to suggest the A24 epic drama overperformed with Academy voters. But despite whispers about voters allegedly having a difficult time even finishing the 215-minute film, The Brutalist hit every single category in which it was competitive for a nomination this year, including borderline spots like Best Editing (where it sat in fourth place in the odds before the nominations after missing several key precursors) and Best Supporting Actress (where Felicity Jones was in fourth place due to a spotty precursor run herself). Moreover, The Brutalist is expected to convert several of the 10 nominations into Oscar wins — including Best Actor for Adrien Brody, Best Cinematography, and Best Score. But following losses at the Producers Guild Awards and, critically, the Directors Guild Awards (where presumed Oscar frontrunner Brady Corbet lost to Baker), The Brutalist needs some help in the race, and it got a slight boost from the BAFTA Awards, where Corbet won Best Director and the movie took three other wins (but notably, not Best Film, which went to Conclave; more on that below). The Brutalist has the added advantage of being at least partially about its own creation. In interviews since its Venice Film Festival premiere last August, Corbet has spoken openly about his challenges in making the film and the contradictions between art and commerce — statements that speak loudly to many filmmakers and creatives in the industry who vote for the Oscars. If voters want to make a statement about the difficulties facing creatives right now — especially after the contentious labor strikes of 2023 — The Brutalist winning Best Picture couldn’t speak louder.
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