Oscar voting has officially closed — so here are our burning questions
Pencils down, tabs closed. Oscar winner voting officially closed at 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT, meaning the end of the most unpredictable awards season in recent memory is nearing the finish line. Before the 2025 Oscars ceremony reveals this year’s winners — and ahead of the several anonymous Oscar voters who will be discussing their preferences with us between now and March 2 — here are the three biggest burning questions about the race.
How will the Best Actress race play out?
After Anora breakout Mikey Madison won at the BAFTA Awards on Sunday against The Substance star Demi Moore, it confirmed the long-held speculation that the Oscars Best Actress race had not yet been decided. In some ways, regardless of whether she wins at the Screen Actors Guild Awards on Sunday, it is arguably Madison who now holds the edge against the veteran actress. Madison is guaranteed at least a split of the industry precursors and leads the Best Picture frontrunner. But before Team Anora and Madison’s online stans start popping champagne in anticipation of her potential Best Actress win, consider this: Neither Madison nor Moore has competed against the exact Oscar Best Actress field yet this season. That’s because I’m Still Here star Fernanda Torres, the Golden Globe Award winner for Best Drama Actress, was snubbed by both the BAFTA Awards and SAG Awards (and didn’t land a Critics Choice Award nomination either). On the one hand, Torres’s failure to secure bids from those influential industry groups might give her the appearance of an also-ran. But don’t judge a book by its cover: the passion for Torres is hard to ignore — so much so that it’s possible her support within the Academy actually pushed I’m Still Here into the Best Picture field, where it was a long shot to receive a nomination. Torres is also the “apple in the bag of oranges,” if you’ll excuse the idiom. I’m Still Here is a biographical film about the real-life activist Eunice Paiva, and the drama has anecdotally left several audiences overcome with emotion. The other four nominees for Best Actress, including Madison and Moore? They’re in comedies with dramatic elements, musicals with dramatic elements, or a body-horror satire with dramatic elements. That doesn’t mean Torres should be considered the frontrunner here or that she’ll eventually emerge victoriously to shock the world (but not her Brazilian fan base, which has given her rabid support online for months). However, she’s probably a lot closer to pulling off the unlikely win than many want to think about.
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How many Oscars will Sean Baker win?
Sean Baker may leave the Oscars on March 2 with his name placed alongside Walt Disney in the Academy Awards record books. With four nominations — as a producer, director, editor, and writer — Baker could tie Disney with four Oscar wins in a single night (and become the first person to win four Oscars for a single project, unlike Disney). It feels like Baker will win two or three of those four nominations: Best Picture and Best Director. (Even though Baker lost at the BAFTAs, it’s hard to bet against a precursor like the Directors Guild Awards, which has matched the Oscars in 18 of the last 20 years and was won this year by the Anora filmmaker.) He could also win Best Original Screenplay, although perhaps Jesse Eisenberg will surprise for A Real Pain and break a 20-year streak at the Oscars. Only the editing race seems out of play: not only did Baker lose in that category at the BAFTA Awards to presumed favorite Conclave, he’d also be only the second director in 35 years to win an Oscar for editing his own movie (Alfonso Cuarón was a co-editor when he won for Gravity).
Is Best Picture as competitive as it once seemed?
Just after the Oscar nominations and before Karla Sofía Gascón exploded the Emilia Pérez Best Picture campaign, it felt like six movies were in legitimate competition for the top Oscar. Or maybe that was a mirage, especially with Wicked becoming a tech player and A Complete Unknown continually being blanked by the industry. (The Bob Dylan biopic has not won a major award this season.) Heading into Sunday’s SAG Awards, Anora remains the frontrunner — and if any movie other than Conclave were to win Best Ensemble from the Actors Guild, it would stay the overwhelming best bet. And if Conclave were to win? Well, Anora is still the frontrunner, but maybe the race is slightly closer.
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