Oscar Nominations: Major Category Predictions And What You Need To Know Before Thursday

Pete Hammond

Wed, January 22, 2025 at 3:00 PM UTC

6 min read

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When it comes to predicting Oscar nominations it is always a crap shoot, but I think it is safe to say that there is music in the air in the Best Picture race with original musical Emilia Pérez, Bob Dylan musical biopic A Complete Unknown and the Broadway musical adaptation Wicked all likely to be the talk of the town around 5:45 a.m. or so when the noms announcement is over and done with Thursday morning. All will be nominated for Best Picture, making it the most musical lineup in the category since My Fair Lady fought off Mary Poppins 60 years ago.

To invoke the name of another Best Picture contender (that is not a musical), you should be able to Sing Sing this group.

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The aforementioned Netflix marvel Emilia Pérez has some pundits wondering whether it might dominate like no other movie in Oscar history, perhaps tying or even breaking the all-time record for nominations currently held by the trio of All About Eve, Titanic and La La Land (the latter the only one of the three not to eventually end up a Best Picture winner — but you remember that!)

The reason for that is Pérez has multiple opportunities for double nominations in Supporting Actress (Zoe Salda?a, Selena Gomez) and two tunes in Original Song, plus it is the only Best Picture contender this year to also be assured of a nomination for Best International Feature as France’s official entry and front-runner there. Add to the all the crafts possibilities — a genuine contender for Editing, Sound, Makeup & Hair, Cinematography, Original Score — plus longer shots in Production Design and Costume Design, and add in Director, Adapted Screenplay and Actress (Karla Sofía Gascón) If all of the above come in as sort of a sweep mentality among voters then you could have a whopping 16 noms, and this is genuinely a movie that has a fighting chance to do that. I don’t think it will, but I can see a minimum of 12. Netflix has never had a Best Picture win and this one is their best shot to date.

Ralph Fiennes in 'Conclave' — Ralph Fiennes in ‘Conclave’

Wicked has no original songs or double nominee possibilities, and isn’t in the International race like Emilia Pérez, but it is loved by the members I have been talking with so look for it to land at least 10 nominations — and there is upside as that doesn’t count Directing and Adapted Screenplay, or Jonathan Bailey, who landed a surprise supporting actor nomination at the SAG Awards. It would be a shame if Jon M. Chu is overlooked for the spectacular job he did (as he was at the DGA Awards), but that is the kind of thing the directors branch does regularly.

I haven’t talked with anyone who also doesn’t love or at least really like James Mangold’s Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown and that Searchlight film is assured slots for Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Lead Actor Timothée Chalamet, Supporting Actor Edward Norton, and probably Supporting Actress Monica Barbaro, Sound, and Editing. Directing is trickier since that branch often leans international, but Mangold, never Oscar nominated in the category, at least stands a decent chance due to the admiration for this film.

'The Brutalist' review — ‘The Brutalist’

Other no-brainers on the list of 10 Best Picture nominees is Golden Globes Best Picture – Drama winner The Brutalist, which stands to make Brady Corbet a two-time nominee Thursday including in Directing and Original Screenplay; and Conclave, which led both the BAFTA nominations and was tied at Critics Choice in overall nominations and stands a good chance of doing the same thing at the Oscars with nominations for Picture, Actor for Ralph Fiennes, Supporting Actress for Isabella Rossellini, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design, Editing, Sound, Original Score, plus an outside shot for Stanley Tucci as Supporting Actor.

Joining Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Brutalist, Conclave and A Complete Unknown for Best Picture nominations are probably A Real Pain, Anora, The Substance, Dune: Part Two and my deserving long shot September 5. Don’t count out Amazon MGM Studios’ Nickel Boys or Challengers, and A24’s well-liked Sing Sing if any of those fall short.

Demi Moore in 'The Substance' — Demi Moore in ‘The Substance’

There is a real wild card factor this year with the L.A. wildfires having caused the Academy to extend the voting deadline twice, giving voters five full extra days. Whether pre-occupied Los Angeles Academy members even bothered to finish seeing films (many I talked with just before the holidays had seen very little), or vote, even with that extension, is a big question mark. I haven’t seen the Academy putting out any notifications as in the past about having record turnouts, and that is understandable. This all could add up to a more lopsided participation among the Academy’s international voting block, increasingly large and important, and that could favor a big day for something like Emilia Pérez (which doesn’t need the help) or actors like Marianne Jean-Baptiste of Hard Truths and Golden Globe winner Fernanda Torres for Brazil’s I’m Still Here. It could also help directors like The Substance’s Coralie Fargeat, I’m Still Here’s Walter Salles, or other international filmmakers like The Seed of the Sacred Fig’s Mohammad Rasoulof as well as their films’ Best Picture prospects in addition to in the International category.

So this will all be answered tomorrow in a year that at this point is still wide open.

Here is how the other five major categories could shake out:

Best Actress

The most competitive lineup in years could see switches in fortune by just a few votes. Demi Moore (The Substance), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Mikey Madison (Anora), Gascón (Emilia Pérez) and Torres (I’m Still Here) loom large at this point on this list, but like I said just a few votes could change those fates and produce an alternate lineup that includes — among others — SAG nominee Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl) and Kate Winslet (Lee).

Best Actor

Not quite as competitive this year as Lead Actress, locks are Golden Globe winner Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) and Fiennes (Conclave). Joining them are likely Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) and the overdue and never once nominated Brit of your choice, Daniel Craig (Queer) or Hugh Grant (Heretic). Sebastian Stan could and should be in there too if not for competing against himself for votes for his Globe-winning role in A Different Man and his BAFTA-nominated The Apprentice. Wouldn’t you just love to see Donald Trump crash the Oscarcast again, this time complaining about a Best Actor nominee playing him?

Best Supporting Actress

Salda?a (Emilia Pérez), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl) and Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) feel likely to me, but don’t discount The Piano Lesson’s SAG nominee Danielle Deadwyler or BAFTA nominee Gomez (Emilia Pérez).

Best Supporting Actor

Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Yura Borisov (Anora), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Norton (A Complete Unknown) and Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice). Wildcard: Tucci (Conclave)

Best Director

Edward Berger (Conclave), Corbet (The Brutalist), Sean Baker (Anora), Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez) and Fargeat (The Substance).

Oscar nominations will be revealed starting at 5:30 a.m. PT/8:30 a.m. ET Thursday. Look for my complete analysis shortly after. The 97th Academy Awards are Sunday, March 2, 2025 live on ABC and Hulu.

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