How Many Oscars Will ‘Anora’ and ‘Conclave’ Win?
This week’s “Screen Talk” podcast wraps up last weekend’s Film Independent Spirit and Screen Actors Guild awards, and co-hosts Ryan Lattanzio and Anne Thompson share their final Oscar nominations predictions ahead of the ceremony on Sunday. (Anne’s final 23 category picks are here, and our shorts predictions are here.)
We also look at two deaths that took place in the span of 24 hours this week, Michelle Trachtenberg and Gene Hackman. Meanwhile, Netflix released viewership data for the second half of 2024, and it’s telling how small audience interest was in a number of the streamer’s 2025 Oscar contenders.
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At the Spirits, “Anora” was the big winner with three top awards, and director Sean Baker gave a powerful speech about how indies need to sustain careers going forward.
At the SAG Awards, the big surprise was Timothée Chalamet finally notching a win for his performance as Bob Dylan in “A Complete Unknown.” Will that repeat at the Oscars? No, and we explain why. What about “Conclave”’s ensemble win? With BAFTA and SAG top wins and the Oscar preferential ballot, “Conclave” is the mainstream choice for many voters. But “Anora” took the DGA, WGA, and PGA, which also has a preferential ballot.
Here’s what the 10 Best Picture nominees are likely to win:
“Wicked”: Costume Design, Production Design
“Emilia Pérez”: Zoe Salda?a for Supporting Actress, “El Mal” for Best Song, Best International Feature
“Dune: Part Two”: Sound, Visual Effects
“A Complete Unknown”: In the running for Best Sound and Best Actor, but could win nothing.
“Conclave”: Best Adapted Screenplay, Editing
“I’m Still Here”: Best International Feature is a possibility.
“Nickel Boys”: A long shot for Adapted Screenplay
“The Substance”: Makeup and Hairstyling, Best Actress Demi Moore
“The Brutalist”: Best Actor Adrien Brody, Original Score, Best Cinematography
“Anora”: Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, Best Picture, with Mikey Madison in the running for Best Actress
Best Documentary is the toughest category to call: “Porcelain War” competes with “No Other Land” and “Sugarcane.”
An Oscar sure bet, though? Kieran Culkin, Best Supporting Actor for “A Real Pain.”
Meanwhile, Netflix June-to-December 2024 viewership data indicates views were low for films like “Maria” (800,000 views) and “Emilia Pérez” (1,500,000 views). “The Piano Lesson,” shut out of the Oscars, was bigger (5,100,000 views).
We wrap up with a tribute to the late great Gene Hackman. We both picked “Night Moves” as our favorite Hackman film. Over decades, the actor showed mastery of the craft of acting: He could play terrifying villains (“Unforgiven”), complicated heroes (“The Conversation”), and anti-heroes (“The French Connection”). IndieWire also ranks his 12 best films.
Listen to the episode below.
Screen Talk is produced by Azwan Badruzaman and available on Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, and Spotify, and hosted by Megaphone. Browse previous episodes here, subscribe here, and be sure to let us know if you’d like to hear the hosts address specific issues in upcoming editions of Screen Talk.
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