Will Kendrick Lamar ‘Squabble’ With Shaboozey’s Claim for 20 Weeks Atop the Hot 100?
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Dec. 7, 2024, we look at whether a major surprise drop is going to halt Shaboozey’s historic run atop the chart.
Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” (American Dogwood/EMPIRE/Magnolia Music): The biggest country crossover hit of 2024 is now officially also the longest-running Hot 100 No. 1 of all-time – though it still has to share the status, at least for now, with Lil Nas X’s Billy Ray Cyrus-featuring “Old Town Road.” Both songs have now spent 19 weeks atop the Hot 100, with “Bar Song” holding off Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars’ “Die With a Smile” this frame to tie the historic mark – helped by the added exposure from an eventful night at the CMA Awards, albeit one marked by more controversy than likely expected.
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And it’s good for Shabozoey that he got his 19th week — because not only is the gap between “A Bar Song” and “Die With a Smile” continuing to shrink, but it’s also about to get very crowded at the top of the Hot 100.
Kendrick Lamar, “Squabble Up” (pgLang/Interscope/ICLG): Kendrick Lamar shocked the world on Friday (Nov. 22) by surprise-releasing his new album GNX at noon, with no previous indicators that an album (or really new music in general) was particularly imminent. The 12-track set follows his major moment in the spotlight earlier this year with his exceedingly high-profile Drake feud, which was essentially bookended by a pair of Hot 100-toppers: “Like That,” for which he appeared as a guest rapper on Future and Metro Boomin’s We Still Don’t Trust You album, and his own “Not Like Us,” an immediate hip-hop all-timer.
He may now get his third chart-topper of the year. Unsurprisingly, GNX has taken over on streaming services the past week – five days after its release, the album’s 12 tracks still hold all of the top 12 spots on Apple Music’s real time chart, and as of Tuesday, the album held the entire top eight on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA listing. The latter tally is led by “Squabble Up,” the album’s second track and presumptive lead single, which samples Debbie Deb’s 1984 freestyle classic “When I Hear Music” and also now has its own music video, released Monday.
“Squabble Up” is expected to lead the way for Kendrick’s new set on the chart next week – and with its robust streaming numbers, it should have a good chance at capturing the top spot – though it may have some competition from one of its album mates. “TV Off,” featuring Gunplay, has also emerged as a fan favorite from the LP, helped by its highly “Not Like Us”-reminiscent beat and viral-friendly “MUSTAAAARRRRRRD!” mid-song howl namechecking the song’s star producer. It’s taken over from “Squabble Up” atop Apple Music and sits just below it on Spotify – so if it keeps growing, it may be a real challenger to “Squabble” as soon as next week.
Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars, “Die With a Smile” (Streamline/Interscope/Atlantic/ICLG): “Die With a Smile” has gotten within striking distance of the Hot 100’s No. 1 spot a couple times now, but has still yet to get over the hump to become Bruno Mars’ ninth No. 1 and Lady Gaga’s sixth on the chart. Unfortunately for the superstar duo, it’s only likely to get more difficult for “Smile” in the weeks to come, as even if it finally manages to close the gap for good with “A Bar Song,” it now has a glut of Kendrick Lamar songs and an avalanche of holiday songs looking to pass it on the chart. The song’s airplay is still slowly climbing, though – so if Bruno and Gaga have one more card up to play for the song, that top spot will likely be within reach for a little while still. (They should maybe wait until 2025 to use it at this point, though.)
Mariah Carey, “All I Want for Christmas Is You” (Columbia/Legacy): The Queen of Christmas is officially out of hibernation. “All I Want for Christmas Is You” re-enters the Hot 100 at No. 16 this week, and with Thanksgiving now right around the corner, the run-up to holiday season is soon to be in full bore. The preponderance of expected high debuts from Lamar’s GNX – it could launch half its tracklist in the top 10, possibly even more — might keep it on the edge of the top 10 for next week, but it’s only a matter of time before “All I Want” (which has led for 14 weeks since 2019) is challenging for the Hot 100 title in earnest.
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