Will Kendrick Lamar Lead the Hot 100 After Historic Super Bowl Performance?
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Feb. 22, we look at the multiple Kendrick Lamar songs that could have a shot at capturing the No. 1 spot following the rapper’s Super Bowl halftime performance.
Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us,” “Luther” (with SZA) & “TV Off” (feat. TV Gunplay) (pgLang/Interscope/ICLG): Kendrick Lamar just electrified the music-listening world with one of the most-anticipated Super Bowl halftime shows of all time — coming not just one week after a Grammy sweep on Feb. 2 that saw Lamar win all five of his nominations (including record and song of the year), but a year-long run of one W after another that saw him earn our editorial staff’s Greatest Pop Star of 2024 title. The performance was the most-watched in the show’s history, according to presenter Apple Music and the NFL, with over 133.5 million people tuning in to see K Dot take the ultimate victory lap.
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And of course, the song they were most interested in seeing him play was his 2024 Billboard Hot 100-topper “Not Like Us.” The already-legendary diss track, our editorial staff’s No. 1 song of last year, had been tied up in litigation in recent months, thanks to lawsuits levied by its target, fellow rap superstar Drake, who seemed intent on making it difficult for his opponent to play the incendiary cut on the world’s biggest stage. But Lamar indeed delivered the song as his performance’s centerpiece, even offering a conspicuous (and already much-memed) smile to the camera upon his first “Say Drake…” mention.
Though “Not Like Us” has been out for eight months already at this point, and enjoyed two separate trips to No. 1 on the Hot 100 (the second coming after the release of its similarly headline-capturing music video in July), it should have a good chance of capturing the top spot again this week. The song, which has continued to linger on the Hot 100 (already rebounding to No. 15 this week, in anticipation of Lamar’s set and following his big Grammy night), shot back to the top of the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart, the Apple Music real-time chart and the iTunes chart following Lamar’s performance, as its performance on Sunday night remains at the center of all pop- and hip-hop-related discussion this week.
But it’s not Lamar’s only track threatening the No. 1 spot this week. Lamar has also seen big gains this week for his GNX single “Luther,” which he and collaborator SZA also gave a centerpiece spot during his halftime set, and which currently ranks just below “Not Like Us” at No. 2 on each of the aforementioned rankings. And right underneath them is the Lefty Gunplay-featuring “TV Off,” which Lamar offered immediately following “Not Like Us” as the closing part of his performance – with producer Mustard coming out to dance and silently rap along to the anthem. “Luther” and “TV Off” are also in prime position on the Hot 100 currently, ranking at No. 3 and No. 10 on this week’s chart, respectively.
Radio play will also be a major factor in which of the Super Bowl-boosted Kendrick tracks plays the biggest threat to the Hot 100’s top spot next week. “Luther” is currently leading there, as it bounds from No. 14 to 11 on the Radio Songs chart this week, and has already been up another 9% in audience impressions over the first four days of this tracking week (Feb. 7-10), according to Luminate. But “TV Off” is also gaining, and “Not Like Us” is now rebounding as well, up a whopping 35% over that same four-day period.
If “Not Like Us” can sustain across streaming, sales and radio throughout the week, it might have the best chance of jumping to No. 1 next week – which would make it the extremely rare non-holiday single with three different runs at No. 1, each separated by multiple months. And regardless, we should see a whole lot of Kendrick Lamar in the top 10 next week.
Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars, “Die With a Smile” (Streamline/Interscope/Atlantic/ICLG) & Lady Gaga, “Abracadabra” (Interscope/ICLG): “Die With a Smile” is officially the song to beat this early 2025, with the superstar duet returning for a fifth frame at No. 1 this week, after briefly being interrupted by Travis Scott’s pole position-debuting “4×4.” The song has even finally captured the crown on Radio Songs, after Shaboozey’s historic 27-week run atop that chart with “A Bar Song (Tipsy),” and should also reign for a second week on that listing – though it will likely soon face serious competition from another starry Bruno Mars teamup, with ROSé on “APT.”
Speaking of Bruno and Gaga providing their own competition – the latter now has a breakout smash entirely of her own. Her “Abracadabra” bows at No. 29 on the Hot 100 this week with just over four days of tracking, after debuting with its music video as part of a Mastercard commercial during the Grammys. The song got off to a white-hot start on streaming, and continued growing in the days after, even briefly capturing the top spot on the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart — though it has since gotten buried under an avalanche of Kendrick Lamar and SZA. Regardless, the song should make a big jump in its first full week on the Hot 100 – perhaps to the top 10, if it doesn’t get boxed out by Kendrick – and is already aiming to debut on Pop Airplay, as well.
Chappell Roan, “Pink Pony Club” (Amusement/Island): Don’t forget about the Grammys’ best new artist, who has been surging on the Hot 100 following her big win and show-stopping performance of what now appears to be the signature song of Roan’s early career, “Pink Pony Club.” Despite being originally released in 2020, the song is only now really catching on both streaming and radio, as it re-enters Streaming Songs at No. 24 and hits a new high of No. 32 on Radio Songs this week. It should continue climbing on both listings next week, and may also rise on the Hot 100, after hitting a new peak of No. 18 this week.
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