Golden Globes Analysis: How the Race Affects Emilia Perez and Wicked
The Golden Globes unveiled nominations this morning, offering a blend of surprising choices and unexpected omissions that could reshape the awards landscape. With the Oscars nomination voting period just weeks away, the Globes voters have once again asserted themselves as a momentum driver, and indicator of what might follow in Hollywood’s most glamorous season.
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Jacques Audiard’s Spanish-language musical “Emilia Pérez” emerged as the morning’s biggest story, garnering an impressive 10 noms. This feat not only sets a new Golden Globes record for a comedy or musical film, surpassing “Cabaret” (1972) and “Barbie” (2023) which shared the previous record with nine; but also helped Netflix lead the way for all studios with 12 mentions for film. Most importantly, it cemented “Emilia’s” status as one of the year’s frontrunners for the best picture statuette.
A record-breaking 28 Globe nominations came from movies that began their awards journey at the Cannes Film Festival, compared to 20 in 2023. Among those included is the Palme d’Or winner “Anora,” the combined actress winners from “Emilia Pérez,” the screenplay victor “The Substance” and others.
Adding to the intrigue, these announcements coincide with a particularly frenzied moment in the season. Today marks the deadline for Critics Choice Awards ballots, while Oscar shortlist voting begins in 10 categories, including documentary feature, international feature, sound, visual effects and more. Meanwhile, SAG Awards voting kicks off next week, on Dec. 16, further intensifying the race.
On the small screen, the Golden Globes nominations reveal an industry in transition. Again, Netflix had a standout day, racking up seven series noms across its programming slate. Leading the charge were dramas “The Diplomat” and “Squid Game,” comedies “The Gentlemen” and “Nobody Wants This,” and limited series “Baby Reindeer,” “Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story,” and “Ripley.” However, FX’s “The Bear” claimed the top spot for all shows with five mentions, keeping up its status as a critical darling. The culinary dramedy has now secured its third consecutive nom, solidifying its place in awards history for consecutive season nominees (not always a given at Globes). Hulu’s “Only Murders in the Building,” another perennial favorite, also fared well (minus the Meryl Streep snub), continuing its streak of recognition for its sharp writing and ensemble performances.
The nominations raise pressing questions about how these picks will influence the Oscar race. Can “Emilia Pérez” sustain its momentum in a more traditional Academy landscape? Will Netflix maintain its dominance as a platform capable of excelling in drama, comedy, and limited series? And what does the overwhelming success of “The Bear” say about the growing embrace of hybrid genres in television?
Below, we dive into 15 takeaways and pivotal questions from this year’s Golden Globes nominations.
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Drama Between ‘Brutalist’ Vs. ‘Conclave’
Brady Corbet’s sweeping historical epic “The Brutalist” and Edward Berger’s religious thriller “Conclave” emerged as major players, earning seven and six Globe nominations respectively, trailing only the musical “Emilia Pérez.” Both films have been considered serious contenders for the Academy’s top prize, based on industry buzz and glowing reviews.
Focus Features, eyeing the first best picture win for the studio, is banking on the power of the preferential ballot, in addition to possible triumphs for drama actor Ralph Fiennes, and screenplay for Peter Straughan.
Regarding “Brutalist,” acquired by A24 after its Venice premiere, it has been considered a bonafide contender in multiple categories, including directing, actor for Adrien Brody, and numerous artisan awards. Brody’s nom comes 22 years after his Oscar win for “The Pianist,” and he also won big with New York Film Critics.
However, the film’s trajectory has seemed to echo the 2002 awards race when “Pianist” pulled off key upsets in directing (Roman Polanski), actor (Brody) and adapted screenplay (Ronald Harwood), losing best picture to another musical “Chicago.” Could “The Brutalist” duplicate a similar evening, if the Academy ends up going for “Emilia Pérez” or “Wicked?”
History offers no guarantees. On the drama side, a Globe win for best picture doesn’t always translate to Oscar success. Films like “1917,” “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” “The Revenant,” “The Social Network” and “Babel” claimed the Globe but ultimately lost the Oscar’s top prize to “Parasite,” “The Shape of Water,” “Spotlight,” “The King’s Speech” and “The Departed.”
Noteworthy is the inclusion of James Mangold’s “A Complete Unknown” in drama, which could see its lead actor nominee Timothee Chalamet emerge victorious. Also, “Dune: Part Two” had a ho-hum showing, which came with only two mentions (one of which is ineligible), and a head-scratching omission from the box office category. The road for Denis Villeneuve’s masterful sci-fi epic is looking a bit grim.
What Do the Sole Drama Noms for ‘Nickel’ and ‘September’ Mean?
The day after Amazon MGM Studios’ “Nickel Boys” from RaMell Ross and Paramount Pictures’ “September 5” from Tim Fehlbaum tied at the L.A. Film Critics Awards for best editing, the pair landed in the best picture (drama) category, but as the film’s sole nominees. Only eight films in history have been nominated for just one Golden Globe for best picture (drama): “The Great Debaters” (2007), “Crimes and Misdemeanors” (1989), “La Bamba” (1987), “In Cold Blood (1967), “The Professionals” (1966), “The Chalk Garden” (1964), “The Great Escape” (1963) and “The Inspector” (1962). Coincidentally, none of them translated to an Oscar nom for best picture.
In addition to their surprise inclusions, it’s also interesting to see which films they pushed out, including A24’s prison drama “Sing Sing” (which landed a sole nod for Colman Domingo) and Bleecker Street’s British character study “Hard Truths” (which was unfortunately shut out).
So what does that mean for “Nickel Boys” and “September 5?” Let’s see how they continue to perform.
Is the Best Picture Winner From Comedy/Musical?
Between Sean Baker’s poignant indie Palme d’Or winner “Anora,” which recently topped the L.A. Film Critics Association, Jacques Audiard’s dazzling nomination leader “Emilia Pérez,” and Jon M. Chu’s beloved blockbuster musical “Wicked,” three of the presumed frontrunners for the Oscar best picture race hail from the comedy/musical side of the Globes. This year’s lineup suggests a resurgence for the genres, but the big question remains: Which film can seal the deal for its studio and ultimately cross the finish line at the Oscars?
It’s worth remembering that success in the comedy/musical category at the Globes doesn’t always translate to Oscar glory. In recent years, notable examples include “The Banshees of Inisherin,” which triumphed at the Globes only to lose the best picture Oscar to “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (2022). Similarly, “The Grand Budapest Hotel” charmed its way to a win, only to watch “Birdman” (2014) dominate the Oscars ceremony.
But one thing’s for certain: If the Globes producers are looking to ensure maximum audience engagement, they’d be wise to save the comedy/musical categories for the final act of the show. This year’s lineup features all the heavyweights and crowd-pleasers that will keep viewers glued to their screens.
A Winning Advantage for One Drama Actress
There’s been a growing consensus the race for best actress is the most competitive, with an embarrassment of riches. The nominees include Pamela Anderson for “The Last Showgirl,” Angelina Jolie for “Maria,” Nicole Kidman for “Babygirl,” Tilda Swinton for “The Room Next Door,” Fernanda Torres for “I’m Still Here” and Kate Winslet for “Lee.” Each talented performer brings a unique and compelling portrayal to the table, only adding to the fierce competition at hand.
Among the nominees, Torres stands out as the only actress whose film also earned another mention, landing a spot in the Non-English Language category (aside from Anderson whose film landed song). Does the dual recognition make her the frontrunner for this prize? Multiple industry insiders and voter conversations suggest she’s a favorite among members, which could solidify her position as a leading contender, which could help her in her awards prospects. But while Torres may have the edge, Kidman and Jolie’s portrayals have also garnered significant support.
For Anderson and Swinton, the nominations provide a much-needed jolt of momentum. Both actresses have faced somewhat muted awards buzz leading up to nominations. And then there’s Winslet, whose double nom — including her nod for the miniseries “The Regime” — adds an intriguing layer. The last time Winslet landed two Globe noms was in 2008 when she went on to win for both “Revolutionary Road” and “The Reader.” Could voters throw one her way?
‘Wicked’ Director Doesn’t Fly. Is He Out of the Running?
One of the more surprising omissions from this year’s Globes was the snub for Jon M. Chu in the directing category for Universal’s “Wicked,” which prompted a flurry of social media declarations: “It’s over” for the film’s directing and best picture chances.
Not so fast, Ozians.
History reminds us that a Globe snub doesn’t necessarily spell doom. Five films have gone on to win the Oscar for best picture despite their directors missing out on Globes: “CODA” (2021), “Crash” (2005), “Driving Miss Daisy” (1989), “Chariots of Fire” (1981) and “The Sting” (1973). And in the rare but not impossible case of a director missing the Globe nod and still clinching the Oscar, there are two examples: Roman Polanski for “The Pianist” (2002) and George Roy Hill for “The Sting.”
While not unprecedented, Chu’s omission raises the stakes for “Wicked” as the season continues to heat up. The Directors Guild of America noms, which come in January, will be key in determining whether the film’s directorial vision can still carve out its path to Oscar night glory.
Also noteworthy, sometimes “overperforming” can be a bad thing in the grand scheme of Oscar campaigning. Just ask “Barbie” following its nine Globe noms, and record-breaking 18 CCA mentions last year.
For now, it’s still anyone’s game.
Is ‘All We Imagine as Light’ the New ‘Anatomy of a Fall?’
India is the new France, at least in the Oscar international feature world.
After years of contentious selections — most notably not choosing “Anatomy of a Fall” over “The Taste of Things” last year — France appears to have finally realigned its strategy with Jacques Audiard’s “Emilia Pérez,” a choice vindicated by its 10 noms. In contrast, India’s choice to bypass Payal Kapadia’s Cannes Grand Prix winner, “All We Imagine as Light” in favor of “Lucky Ladies,” turned some heads. Many believe that Kapadia’s film possesses the thematic depth and cinematic artistry to be a true challenger to “Emilia.”
Despite not being India’s official entry, “All We Imagine” is gaining traction in the U.S. Securing distribution through Janus Films and Sideshow — the team behind the best picture-nominated “Drive My Car” — Kapadia’s film is poised for a robust awards campaign. Its recent victories in the Foreign Language categories at both the L.A. Film Critics and Gotham awards show strength. Additionally, dual mentions for non-English language and director amplify its visibility and credibility in the crowded awards landscape.
This could mimic the road for “Anatomy” last year, which went on to receive five Oscar nominations, winning one for original screenplay. BAFTA will be vital.
‘A Real Pain’ is a Real Possibility for Jesse Eisenberg Hat Trick
Searchlight Pictures’ “A Real Pain,” written, directed, and produced by Jesse Eisenberg, had a strong showing at the nominations, earning nods for picture (comedy), supporting actor (Kieran Culkin), actor and screenplay (both for Eisenberg).
Thus far, Glen Powell’s charismatic turn in “Hit Man,” Jesse Plemons’ Cannes-winning performance in “Kinds of Kindness” and the double-nominated Sebastian Stan for “A Different Man” have been assumed to be the frontrunners. However, Eisenberg’s momentum, bolstered by “A Real Pain’s” screenplay win from L.A. Film Critics, and Culkin’s current steamroll with other critics groups, suggests he shouldn’t be counted out.
If Eisenberg pulls off a Globe victory, he could join an elite club of actors who directed themselves to Oscar nominations, including Bradley Cooper (“A Star Is Born,” “Maestro”), Denzel Washington (“Fences”), and Clint Eastwood (“Million Dollar Baby,” “Unforgiven”). Eisenberg, a former Oscar nominee for “The Social Network” (2010), has proven he’s capable of delivering compelling performances, ones the Academy can embrace, and his work in “A Real Pain” is no exception.
Two Sebastian Stans Are Better Than None
Sebastian Stan has doubled his awards season presence, earning two lead noms — one for his daring portrayal of Donald J. Trump in the drama “The Apprentice” and the other for his tender turn as a man grappling with neurofibromatosis in the dramedy “A Different Man.”
This rare feat places Stan among an elite group of performers. The last actor to achieve dual lead nominations in both drama and comedy categories was Julianne Moore in 2014, winning for “Still Alice” while also nominated for “Maps to the Stars.” Among male actors, he joins the ranks of Ryan Gosling (2011’s “The Ides of March” and “Crazy, Stupid, Love”), Tom Hanks (1993’s “Philadelphia” and “Sleepless in Seattle”), and Dustin Hoffman (1970’s “Midnight Cowboy” and “John and Mary”). Notably, Gosling is the only one of these not to secure an eventual Oscar nomination, underscoring the significance of this accomplishment.
Stan’s awards trajectory is further bolstered by his co-star Jeremy Strong, who earned a supporting actor nom for “Apprentice.” This added co-star presence could strengthen Stan’s chances with Academy voters, particularly in a year with a comparatively weaker lead actor field. However, the road is not without challenges. Vote-splitting between his two standout performances could dilute his Oscar chances, and “The Apprentice,” despite its acclaim, faces polarizing reactions due to the cultural baggage of its subject. On the other hand, “A Different Man,” which won best feature at the Gothams, may present a more accessible option for voters. Perhaps there’s room for our favorite “Winter Soldier?”
Diversity and Representation Highlights
The Globes acting nods delivered a mix of triumphant milestones and notable snubs with diversity and representation.
Latino actors had one of their strongest showings in decades, particularly Afro-Latinos. Colman Domingo earned a nom for his powerful role in “Sing Sing,” while Zoe Salda?a, a standout in “Emilia Pérez,” was joined by her co-star Selena Gomez, who scored a second mention for TV comedy actress in “Only Murders in the Building.” Brazilian actress Fernanda Torres, nominated for “I’m Still Here,” follows in the footsteps of her mother, Fernanda Montenegro, who was recognized in 1998 for “Central Station.” On the TV side, Liza Colón-Zayas (“The Bear”), Sofía Vergara (“Griselda”), and Diego Luna (“La Máquina”) also received deserved noms. Notable: “Alien: Romulus,” directed by Uruguayan auteur Fede álvarez, earned a spot for box office and cinematic achievement. However, Nicholas Alexander Chavez, the sole Latino main actor in “Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story,” was snubbed, even as his co-stars Javier Bardem and Cooper Koch had their names called.
Black actors were highlighted on the film side with Denzel Washington (“Gladiator II”), Zendaya (“Challengers”), Cynthia Erivo (“Wicked”), along with Salda?a and Domingo. Yet glaring omissions were felt, with Danielle Deadwyler (“The Piano Lesson”), Clarence Maclin (“Sing Sing”), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (“Hard Truths”), and RaMell Ross (director of “Nickel Boys”) left out. On the TV side, Jamie Foxx’s comedy special earned a nod, as did Quinta Brunson (“Abbott Elementary”), Ayo Edebiri (“The Bear”), and Donald Glover (“Mr. and Mrs. Smith”).
AAPI talent shone on the television side, with Ali Wong, Ramy Youssef, Tadanobu Asano, Hiroyuki Sanada, Anna Sawai, and Maya Erskine all landing mentions. Meanwhile, hopes are high for Indigenous performer Kali Reis to follow in Lily Gladstone’s historic win last year (“Killers of the Flower Moon”), with her nom for HBO/Max’s “True Detective: Night Country.”
Karla Sofía Gascón hit a significant milestone for the LGBTQ community with her nom for “Emilia Pérez, ” becoming the first out trans performer to be nominated in a top film acting category (“Pose” actor Michaela Jaé Rodriguez won the TV actress comedy in 2022). Non-binary actor Emma D’Arcy was among the TV nominees for “House of the Dragon” in lead drama actress, along with other openly gay actors such as Jodie Foster and Kali Reis (“True Detective: Night Country”) and Richard Gadd (“Baby Reindeer”). That also included film nominees such as Domingo and Erivo.
Globes Message to Oscars: Take ‘The Substance’
Coralie Fargeat’s bold and visceral “The Substance” made a major splash with five Globe noms, including best picture (Comedy), directing, screenplay, actress (Demi Moore) and supporting actress (Margaret Qualley). A significant moment for the often-overlooked horror genre, but the bigger question remains: Will the Academy embrace this daring, genre-defying choice?
The film, which won the screenplay prize at Cannes, has garnered critical acclaim for its audacious storytelling, particularly its jaw-dropping, chaotic third act. International voters could be the group to rally behind its innovative approach, but convincing Hollywood’s more conservative (snobby?) voting body to recognize a horror film is a perennial challenge. Still, the film’s momentum is undeniable.
A fascinating footnote: This marks Demi Moore’s first Globe nomination on the film side since “Ghost” (1990) — when she was nominated alongside her “Substance” co-star Qualley’s mother, Andie MacDowell (“Green Card”), before Qualley was even born. A full-circle moment.
‘Squid Game’ Sole Nom Puts Spotlight on Difficulty for Late-Breaking TV Releases
The first season of Netflix’s “Squid Game” landed three Globe noms in 2021, including drama series. Now, it’s been three years since the show, which became the most-watched series in Netflix history, and voters gave it a sole nom for drama series. But don’t read too much into that. Netflix made Season 2 available to Globe voters (Season 2 doesn’t release until Dec. 26), however, this is different from late-breaking films which have fall festivals and other avenues to pick up steam. The TV awards calendar blends overlapping Emmy seasons.
It’s also difficult for a show to take such a long hiatus, and return for more (i.e., “Atlanta”). Nonetheless, “Squid Game” is back in the conversation, and hoping for another dance at the Emmys (especially now that “Succession” is over).
‘Abbott Elementary’ Continues to Represent Broadcast TV
While broadcast networks broke their way back into the Emmy race earlier this year with ABC and CBS picking up 38 nods each, that wasn’t the outcome for Globe nominations.
ABC’s hit mockumentary “Abbott Elementary” is the sole nominated broadcast show, picking up two noms for TV comedy series and lead actress Quinta Brunson. The rest of the field was dominated by streamers (and a little bit of cable). After “Abbott” won the top prize for the first season, it was de-throned by “The Bear” last year.
In the middle of an amazing fourth season, could the critically acclaimed comedy make another trip to the Beverly Hilton ballroom stage?
‘Everybody Wants This’ – Kristen Bell & Adam Brody Awards Run?
Netflix has long sought a dominant player in the TV comedy awards race, with past contenders like “Orange Is the New Black,” “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt,” “Master of None” and “Wednesday” earning acclaim but falling short of the top prize. Now, the streamer appears poised for a breakthrough with the rom-com series Nobody Wants This.
Starring Kristen Bell and Adam Brody, the show centers on the unconventional relationship between an agnostic woman and a rogue rabbi, striking a chord with audiences and critics alike. As a result, the series landed three Globe noms — for Comedy Series, Actor, and Actress — mirroring the same showing at the Critics Choice TV Awards nominations last week. With a 94% score on Rotten Tomatoes and a growing fanbase, “Nobody Wants This” could give Netflix the chance to walk away with its second Globe win for a comedy series after “The Kominsky Method” in 2019.
But one thing’s for certain, this is the streamer’s comedy pony to push for next year’s Emmys and they’re determined to get it there.
‘The Penguin’ Didn’t Waddle, It Sprinted Into the Emmy Race
HBO/Max’s crime drama miniseries “The Penguin” has solidified its place in this year’s TV awards conversation, earning three noms for Colin Farrell, Cristin Milioti, and limited series and joining its network counterpart “House of the Dragon” among the genre shows recognized.
Farrell, a past Globe winner for the film “In Bruges,” emerges as a formidable contender, potentially challenging Emmy winner Richard Gadd (“Baby Reindeer”). Meanwhile, Milioti’s mention for her standout portrayal positions her as a dark horse in the actress category, where she could upset fellow HBO/Max star Jodie Foster (“True Detective: Night Country”).
Interestingly, the Globes and Emmys have aligned in this category for the past five years, but history suggests the occasional surprise. Memorable upsets include Patricia Arquette’s (“Escape at Dannemora”) over Regina King (“Seven Seconds”) and Drew Barrymore’s win for “Grey Gardens” over Emmy-winning co-star Jessica Lange.
“The Penguin” could go far.
‘The Bear’ Is Still Strong (And Still a Comedy)
After a historic Emmy loss despite breaking the all-time nomination record for a comedy series, FX’s “The Bear” leads the Globe nominations for all series with five, including comedy series, and four of its actors.
While Season 3 of the FX hit received a more tempered response compared to its earlier seasons, this marks the second major voting body to cast their ballots on this previous outing. The Critics Choice TV Awards only provided a sole mention for supporting comedy actress Liza Colón-Zayas. The show’s uneven reception hasn’t stopped its dominance, but the ongoing debate over whether “The Bear” truly qualifies as a comedy will continue to be a topic going into the next season, surely.
The question now is whether Globe voters will double down on their love for “Bear,” or pivot to fresher, newer contenders.
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