Golden Globe winner predictions: ‘Anora’ takes the early lead in comedy/musical [Updated Dec. 11]
Who would win if the 2025 Golden Globes ceremony was held today? According to our exclusive Gold Derby predictions, where more than 1,200 people have made their forecasts following the Globe nominations on Dec. 9, 2024, we have the first peek at the early leaders for this year’s trophies.
Below is a snapshot of our film odds and TV odds for the 82nd annual ceremony, updated on Dec. 11, 2024. Our predicted winners are denoted in gold. One of the hottest races of the year is Best Film Comedy/Musical, where “Anora” has the edge over co-nominees “Wicked,” “Emilia Pérez,” “A Real Pain,” “The Substance,” and “Challengers.”
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This year’s movie nominations were led by “Emilia Pérez” with 10 overall bids, followed by “The Brutalist” with seven, “Conclave” with six, and “Anora” and “The Substance” with five apiece. The top television contenders were “The Bear” at five bids, and “Only Murders in the Building” and “Shōgun” each at four.
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Gold Derby’s Golden Globe odds are based on the combined forecasts of experts from major media outlets, our editors who cover awards year-round, the top 24 users with the best accuracy scores last year, and the mass of users who make up our biggest predictions bloc. Track the awards races by exploring all of our charts and graphs, and be sure to sound off in our forums. The live ceremony will be held at the Beverly Hilton Hotel on Jan. 5, 2025.
BEST FILM DRAMA
1. “The Brutalist” — 18/5
2. “Conclave” — 39/10
3. “A Complete Unknown” — 11/2
4. “Dune: Part Two” — 11/2
5. “Nickel Boys” — 13/2
6. “September 5” — 13/2
BEST FILM DRAMA ACTRESS
1. Angelina Jolie (“Maria”) — 19/5
2. Nicole Kidman (“Babygirl”) — 4/1
3. Fernanda Torres (“I’m Still Here”) — 9/2
4. Pamela Anderson (“The Last Showgirl”) — 11/2
5. Tilda Swinton (“The Room Next Door”) — 13/2
6. Kate Winslet (“Lee”) — 7/1
BEST FILM DRAMA ACTOR
1. Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”) — 18/5
2. Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”) — 4/1
3. Timothée Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown”) — 9/2
4. Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”) — 11/2
5. Sebastian Stan (“The Apprentice”) — 7/1
6. Daniel Craig (“Queer”) — 7/1
BEST FILM COMEDY/MUSICAL
1. “Anora” — 37/10
2. “Wicked” — 4/1
3. “Emilia Pérez” — 9/2
4. “A Real Pain” — 6/1
5. “The Substance” — 6/1
6. “Challengers” — 7/1
BEST FILM COMEDY/MUSICAL ACTRESS
1. Mikey Madison (“Anora”) — 69/20
2. Cynthia Erivo (“Wicked”) — 9/2
3. Karla Sofía Gascón (“Emilia Pérez”) — 5/1
4. Demi Moore (“The Substance”) — 5/1
5. Zendaya (“Challengers”) — 13/2
6. Amy Adams (“Nightbitch”) — 7/1
BEST FILM COMEDY/MUSICAL ACTOR
1. Jesse Eisenberg (“A Real Pain”) — 37/10
2. Sebastian Stan (“A Different Man”) — 4/1
3. Glen Powell (“Hit Man”) — 9/2
4. Hugh Grant (“Heretic”) — 11/2
5. Gabriel LaBelle (“Saturday Night”) — 13/2
6. Jesse Plemons (“Kinds of Kindness”) — 7/1
BEST FILM SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Zoe Salda?a (“Emilia Pérez”) — 7/2
2. Ariana Grande (“Wicked”) — 19/5
3. Isabella Rossellini (“Conclave”) — 11/2
4. Felicity Jones (“The Brutalist”) — 11/2
5. Selena Gomez (“Emilia Pérez”) — 13/2
6. Margaret Qualley (“The Substance”) — 13/2
BEST FILM SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”) — 10/3
2. Guy Pearce (“The Brutalist”) — 4/1
3. Denzel Washington (“Gladiator II”) — 5/1
4. Yura Borisov (“Anora”) — 11/2
5. Jeremy Strong (“The Apprentice”) — 13/2
6. Edward Norton (“A Complete Unknown”) — 7/1
BEST FILM DIRECTOR
1. Brady Corbet (“The Brutalist”) — 18/5
2. Sean Baker (“Anora”) — 9/2
3. Edward Berger (“Conclave”) — 5/1
4. Jacques Audiard (“Emilia Pérez”) — 5/1
5. Coralie Fargeat (“The Substance”) — 6/1
6. Payal Kapadia (“All We Imagine as Light”) — 7/1
BEST FILM SCREENPLAY
1. “Anora” — 71/20
2. “Conclave” — 9/2
3. “A Real Pain” — 5/1
4. “The Brutalist” — 11/2
5. “The Substance” — 6/1
6. “Emilia Pérez” — 7/1
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1. “The Wild Robot” — 69/20
2. “Flow” — 9/2
3. “Inside Out 2” — 9/2
4. “Memoir of a Snail” — 11/2
5. “Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” — 6/1
6. “Moana 2” — 7/1
BEST NON-ENGLISH FILM
1. “Emilia Pérez” — 17/5
2. “All We Imagine as Light” — 4/1
3. “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” — 5/1
4. “I’m Still Here” — 11/2
5. “Vermiglio” — 7/1
6. “The Girl with the Needle” — 7/1
BEST SCORE
1. “Conclave” — 19/5
2. “The Brutalist” — 4/1
3. “Challengers” — 5/1
4. “The Wild Robot” — 11/2
5. “Dune: Part Two” — 6/1
6. “Emilia Pérez” — 13/2
BEST SONG
1. “The Wild Robot” (“Kiss the Sky”) — 39/10
2. “Emilia Pérez” (“El Mal”) — 4/1
3. “Emilia Pérez” (“Mi Camino”) — 9/2
4. “The Last Showgirl” (“Beautiful That Way”) — 11/2
5. “Better Man” (“Forbidden Road”) — 13/2
6. “Challengers” (“Compress/Repress”) — 7/1
CINEMATIC AND BOX OFFICE ACHIEVEMENT
1. “Wicked” — 4/1
2. “Deadpool and Wolverine” — 6/1
3. “Inside Out 2” — 13/2
4. “Gladiator II” — 8/1
5. “The Wild Robot” — 8/1
6. “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” — 9/1
7. “Alien: Romulus” — 19/2
8. “Twisters” — 19/2
BEST DRAMA SERIES
1. “Shōgun” — 10/3
2. “Slow Horses” — 9/2
3. “The Diplomat” — 5/1
4. “Mr. and Mrs. Smith” — 6/1
5. “Squid Game” — 13/2
6. “The Day of the Jackal” — 13/2
BEST TV DRAMA ACTOR
1. Hiroyuki Sanada (“Shōgun”) — 17/5
2. Gary Oldman (“Slow Horses”) — 4/1
3. Eddie Redmayne (“The Day of the Jackal”) — 5/1
4. Jake Gyllenhaal (“Presumed Innocent”) — 11/2
5. Donald Glover (“Mr. and Mrs. Smith”) — 13/2
6. Billy Bob Thornton (“Landman”) — 7/1
BEST TV DRAMA ACTRESS
1. Anna Sawai (“Shōgun”) — 69/20
2. Keri Russell (“The Diplomat”) — 9/2
3. Kathy Bates (“Matlock”) — 9/2
4. Maya Erskine (“Mr. and Mrs. Smith”) — 6/1
5. Keira Knightley (“Black Doves”) — 6/1
6. Emma D’Arcy (“House of the Dragon”) — 7/1
BEST COMEDY SERIES
1. “Hacks” — 17/5
2. “Nobody Wants This” — 9/2
3. “The Bear” — 9/2
4. “Only Murders in the Building” — 11/2
5. “Abbott Elementary” — 13/2
6. “The Gentlemen” — 15/2
BEST TV COMEDY ACTOR
1. Adam Brody (“Nobody Wants This”) — 19/5
2. Jeremy Allen White (“The Bear”) — 39/10
3. Ted Danson (“A Man on the Inside”) — 5/1
4. Martin Short (“Only Murders in the Building”) — 11/2
5. Steve Martin (“Only Murders in the Building”) — 6/1
6. Jason Segel (“Shrinking”) — 13/2
BEST TV COMEDY ACTRESS
1. Jean Smart (“Hacks”) — 10/3
2. Kristen Bell (“Nobody Wants This”) — 9/2
3. Ayo Edebiri (“The Bear”) — 5/1
4. Quinta Brunson (“Abbott Elementary”) — 6/1
5. Selena Gomez (“Only Murders in the Building”) — 13/2
6. Kathryn Hahn (“Agatha All Along”) — 7/1
BEST LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE
1. “Baby Reindeer” — 7/2
2. “The Penguin” — 9/2
3. “Disclaimer” — 9/2
4. “Ripley” — 11/2
5. “True Detective: Night Country” — 13/2
6. “Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story” — 13/2
BEST LIMITED/MOVIE ACTOR
1. Richard Gadd (“Baby Reindeer”) — 37/10
2. Colin Farrell (“The Penguin”) — 19/5
3. Andrew Scott (“Ripley”) — 9/2
4. Cooper Koch (“Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story”) — 6/1
5. Kevin Kline (“Disclaimer”) — 6/1
6. Ewan McGregor (“A Gentleman in Moscow”) — 15/2
BEST LIMITED/MOVIE ACTRESS
1. Jodie Foster (“True Detective: Night Country”) — 18/5
2. Cristin Milioti (“The Penguin”) — 4/1
3. Cate Blanchett (“Disclaimer”) — 9/2
4. Sofia Vergara (“Griselda”) — 11/2
5. Naomi Watts (“Feud: Capote vs. The Swans”) — 13/2
6. Kate Winslet (“The Regime”) — 7/1
BEST TV SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Ebon Moss-Bachrach (“The Bear”) — 39/10
2. Tadanobu Asano (“Shōgun”) — 9/2
3. Jack Lowden (“Slow Horses”) — 9/2
4. Javier Bardem (“Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story”) — 11/2
5. Harrison Ford (“Shrinking”) — 11/2
6. Diego Luna (“La Maquina”) — 7/1
BEST TV SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Jessica Gunning (“Baby Reindeer”) — 17/5
2. Hannah Einbinder (“Hacks”) — 9/2
3. Liza Colón-Zayas (“The Bear”) — 5/1
4. Allison Janney (“The Diplomat”) — 11/2
5. Kali Reis (“True Detective: Night Country”) — 13/2
6. Dakota Fanning (“Ripley”) — 7/1
BEST TV STAND-UP COMEDY PERFORMANCE
1. “Nikki Glaser: Someday You’ll Die” — 37/10
2. “Jamie Foxx: What Had Happened Was” — 39/10
3. “Adam Sandler: Love You” — 11/2
4. “Seth Meyers: Dad Man Walking” — 6/1
5. “Ali Wong: Single Lady” — 6/1
6. “Ramy Youssef: More Feelings” — 13/2
Note: Golden Globes producer Dick Clark Productions is owned by Penske Media Eldridge, a joint venture between Eldridge and Penske Media Corporation, which owns Gold Derby.
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