We Found Box-Office Growth Hiding in Plain Sight: The Rise of the Theatrical Multiple
This summer saw the revival of Marvel and Pixar, but the real surprise was an exhumation. We welcome the return of a trend we feared to be dead: The strong box-office hold.
“Inside Out 2” opened to $150 million and “Deadpool & Wolverine” to $220 million; each are headed for domestic totals of over $600 million. “Despicable Me 4” opened to $70 million in five days over July 4; it will be around $370 million.
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Industry shorthand for assessing audience reaction is the letter grade of a Cinemascore, but far more acute is a film’s multiple, aka the relationship between a release’s total domestic gross versus its opening weekend. However, the rise of home viewing — and a real decline in attendance — would seem to undercut that metric.
Instead, this summer’s top-grossing films reflect some of the best the multiples we’ve seen in years.
Logic might suggest that multiples would wither with the dramatic decline in theatrical windows. Before 2019, films weren’t available for PVOD rental at least 70 days after release. Currently, the average is 40 days or less. Instead, the inverse has happened: Top films are sustaining longer runs.
This is one reason that summer 2024 became an unexpected box-office hero. In June, it appeared that the summer would struggle to reach even $3 billion, rather than the $4 billion of 2023. Instead, we’re heading for $3.5 billion-$3.6 billion — still down, but only by about 10 percent rather than 25 percent or more.
Nothing is as important as the total gross, but a multiple of three times or more is the best indication of audience satisfaction. Pre-Covid, a wide release averaged something over 2.5 times — i.e., if a film opened to $20 million, it would total somewhere above $50 million. Big hits generally (but not always) did better; flops often did less.
Looking at the box-office performance across six summers, including this one (2014, 2018, 2019, 2022-2024), we calculated the multiples for all films that grossed over $100 million; if there were fewer than 10, we used the 10 biggest. (Excluded were titles that opened midweek, since the timing makes normal calculation impossible.)
Top 10 Summer Films | Box-Office Multiple |
2014 | 2.84 |
2018 | 2.99 |
2019 | 2.90 |
2022 | 3.22 |
2023 | 3.21 |
2024 (estimated) | 3.37 |
That consistent growth comes across the period when home viewing became a norm. Given the overall decline in annual box office, it would be a stretch to suggest earlier windows have helped theaters. However, these statistics reinforce the idea that PVOD play does little to no damage to theatrical runs.
At the same time, PVOD returns create signficant revenue with 80 percent of the rentals and purchases going to studios after carriage charges — far more than the average share from tickets. That’s further incentive to produce movies for theaters.
Other factors could have contributed, but a three-year trend suggests that 2024 will not be an anomaly. Perhaps audiences are somewhat slower to respond to a movie before hearing reactions. Perhaps recent films have had better word of mouth. Each summer (and this one in particular) has seen fewer releases; perhaps that helped as well. This summer’s top-heavy response to animated titles (which traditionally have with bigger multiples) could be a factor.
Ultimately, the reality remains: At an average of 40 days or less, the shorter theatrical windows aren’t hurting top films.
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