Feinberg Forecast: Oscar Landscape As Last Guilds Weigh In and Nomination Voting Begins
PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter’s awards columnist Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and awards strategists, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars ceremony itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.
*BEST PICTURE*
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Frontrunners
Belfast (Focus, Nov. 12, trailer) AFI*, CCA, DGA, HFPA, NBR, PGA, SAG
The Power of the Dog (Netflix, Nov. 17, trailer) AFI, CCA, DGA, HFPA, PGA
West Side Story (Disney, Dec. 10, trailer) AFI, CCA, DGA, HFPA, NBR, PGA, WGA
King Richard (Warner Bros., Nov. 19, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA, NBR, PGA, SAG, WGA
Dune (Warner Bros., Oct. 22, trailer) AFI, CCA, DGA, HFPA, NBR, PGA, WGA
Licorice Pizza (MGM/UA, Nov. 26, trailer) AFI, CCA, DGA, HFPA, NBR, PGA, WGA
Tick, Tick … Boom! (Netflix, Nov. 19, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA, PGA, WGA
CODA (Apple, Aug. 13, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA, PGA, SAG, WGA
Don’t Look Up (Netflix, Dec. 10, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA, NBR, PGA, SAG, WGA
Nightmare Alley (Searchlight, Dec. 17, trailer) AFI, CCA, NBR, WGA
Possibilities
Being the Ricardos (Amazon, Dec. 10, trailer) PGA, WGA
Drive My Car (Sideshow/Janus, Nov. 24, trailer) LAFCA, NSFC, NYFCC
No Time to Die (MGM/UA, Oct. 8, trailer)
Spider-Man: No Way Home (Sony, Dec. 17, trailer)
House of Gucci (MGM/UA, Nov. 24, trailer) SAG
The Lost Daughter (Netflix, Dec. 17, trailer) FI, IFP
Longer Shots
Flee (Neon/Participant, Dec. 3, trailer)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple, Dec. 25, trailer) AFI, NBR
Parallel Mothers (Sony Classics, Dec. 24, trailer)
The French Dispatch (Searchlight, Oct. 22, trailer) WGA
The Hand of God (Netflix, Dec. 3, trailer)
Cyrano (MGM/UA, Feb. 25, 2022, trailer)
*BEST DIRECTOR*
Frontrunners
Kenneth Branagh (Belfast) CCA, DGA, HFPA
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) CCA, DGA, HFPA, LAFCA, NYFCC
Steven Spielberg (West Side Story) — podcast CCA, DGA, HFPA
Denis Villeneuve (Dune) — podcast CCA, DGA, HFPA
Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza) CCA, DGA, NBR
Possibilities
Guillermo del Toro (Nightmare Alley) — podcast CCA
Adam McKay (Don’t Look Up) — podcast
Reinaldo Marcus Green (King Richard)
Pedro Almodóvar (Parallel Mothers) — podcast
Sian Heder (CODA)
Longer Shots
Lin-Manuel Miranda (Tick, Tick … Boom!) — podcast
Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car) NSFC
Paolo Sorrentino (The Hand of God)
Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter) FI, HFPA, IFP
Julia Ducournau (Titane)
*BEST ACTOR*
Frontrunners
Will Smith (King Richard) — podcast CCA, HFPA, NBR, SAG
Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick … Boom!) — podcast CCA, HFPA, SAG
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog) — podcast CCA, HFPA, NYFCC, SAG
Bradley Cooper (Nightmare Alley)
Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos) HFPA, SAG
Possibilities
Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth) — podcast CCA, HFPA, SAG
Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up) HFPA
Jude Hill (Belfast)
Joaquin Phoenix (C’mon C’mon) IFP
Peter Dinklage (Cyrano) — podcast CCA, HFPA
Longer Shots
Simon Rex (Red Rocket) — podcast FI, IFP, LAFCA
Nicolas Cage (Pig) — podcast CCA
Hidetoshi Nishijima (Drive My Car) NSFC
Cooper Hoffman (Licorice Pizza) HFPA
Mahershala Ali (Swan Song) — podcast HFPA
*BEST ACTRESS*
Frontrunners
Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) — podcast CCA, HFPA, SAG
Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) — podcast CCA, HFPA, IFP, SAG
Lady Gaga (House of Gucci) — podcast CCA, HFPA, NYFCC, SAG
Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers) — podcast LAFCA, NSFC
Emilia Jones (CODA)
Possibilities
Kristen Stewart (Spencer) — podcast CCA, HFPA
Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) — podcast CCA, HFPA, SAG
Jennifer Hudson (Respect) SAG
Renate Reinsve (The Worst Person in the World)
Longer Shots
Rachel Zegler (West Side Story) HFPA, NBR
Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza) CCA, HFPA
Frances McDormand (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
Jennifer Lawrence (Don’t Look Up) — podcast HFP
*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR*
Frontrunners
Troy Kotsur (CODA) CCA, FI, HFPA, IFP, SAG
Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog) CCA, HFPA, LAFCA, NYFCC, SAG
Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza) SAG
Jamie Dornan (Belfast) CCA, HFPA
Ciarán Hinds (Belfast) CCA, HFPA, NBR
Possibilities
Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog)
Jared Leto (House of Gucci) — podcast CCA, SAG
Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar) — podcast HFPA, SAG
J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos) CCA
Woody Norman (C’mon C’mon)
Longer Shots
Mike Faist (West Side Story)
David Alvarez (West Side Story)
Mark Rylance (Don’t Look Up)
Jonah Hill (Don’t Look Up)
Anders Danielsen Lie (The Worst Person in the World) NSFC
*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS*
Frontrunners
Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog) CCA, HFPA, SAG
Caitriona Balfe (Belfast) CCA, HFPA, SAG
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) CCA, HFPA, LAFCA, SAG
Cate Blanchett (Nightmare Alley) — podcast SAG
Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) — podcast CCA, HFPA, NBR
Possibilities
Ruth Negga (Passing) — podcast FI, HFPA, IFP, NSFC, SAG
Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter) FI, IFP
Marlee Matlin (CODA) IFP
Rita Moreno (West Side Story) — podcast CCA
Longer Shots
Judi Dench (Belfast) — podcast
Gaby Hoffmann (C’mon C’mon) IFP
Meryl Streep (Don’t Look Up) — podcast
Kathryn Hunter (The Tragedy of Macbeth) NYFCC
*BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY*
Frontrunners
The Power of the Dog (Jane Campion) CCA, HFPA, USC
Dune (Eric Roth, Jon Spaihts & Denis Villeneuve) CCA, USC, WGA
West Side Story (Tony Kushner) CCA, WGA
The Lost Daughter (Maggie Gyllenhaal) CCA, FI, IFP, USC
Drive My Car (Ryusuke Hamaguchi & Takamasa Oe) LAFCA, NSFC
Possibilities
Nightmare Alley (Guillermo del Toro & Kim Morgan) — podcast (del Toro) WGA
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Joel Coen) NBR, USC
CODA (Sian Heder) CCA, WGA
Tick, Tick … Boom! (Steven Levenson) WGA
Longer Shots
Passing (Rebecca Hall) IFP, USC
The Tender Bar (William Monahan)
House of Gucci (Roberto Bentivegna & Becky Johnston)
Cyrano (Erica Schmidt)
*BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY*
Frontrunners
Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson) CCA, HFPA, NYFCC, WGA
Belfast (Kenneth Branagh) CCA, HFPA
Don’t Look Up (Adam McKay & David Sirota) — podcast (McKay) CCA, HFPA, WGA
Being the Ricardos (Aaron Sorkin) — podcast CCA, HFPA, WGA
Parallel Mothers (Pedro Almodóvar) — podcast
Possibilities
King Richard (Zach Baylin) CCA, WGA
C’mon Cmon (Mike Mills) FI
The Hand of God (Paolo Sorrentino)
The French Dispatch (Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola & Jason Schwartzman) WGA
Longer Shots
The Worst Person in the World (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt)
Last Night in Soho (Krysty Wilson-Cairns & Edgar Wright)
A Hero (Asghar Farhadi) — podcast NBR
Zola (Janicza Bravo & Jeremy O. Harris) FI
*BEST ANIMATED FEATURE*
Frontrunners
Encanto (Disney) ACE, ADG, ANN, CAS, CCA, HFPA, MPSE, NBR, PGA
The Mitchells vs. the Machines (Netflix) ACE, ADG, ANN, CAS, CCA, MPSE, NYFCC, PGA
Luca (Pixar) ACE, ADG, ANN, CAS, CCA, HFPA, MPSE, PGA
Raya and the Last Dragon (Disney) ACE, ADG, ANN, CAS, CCA, HFPA, MPSE, PGA
Sing 2 (Illumination/Universal) ACE, ADG, ANN, CAS, MPSE, PGA
Possibilities
Flee (Neon/Participant) ANN, CCA, HFPA, LAFCA
Belle (GKIDS) ANN
My Sunny Maad (Negativ) HFPA
Longer Shots
The Summit of the Gods (Netflix) ANN
Fortune Favors Lady Nikuko (GKIDS) ANN
Pompo: The Cinephile (GKIDS) ANN
*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE*
Frontrunners
Summer of Soul (Hulu/Searchlight) ACE, AFI*, CAS, CCA, CEH, DGA, FI, IDA, IFP, LAFCA, MPSE, NBR, PGA
Flee (Neon/Participant) ACE, CCA, CEH, FI, IDA, IFP, MPSE, NBR, NSFC, NYFCC, PGA
Ascension (MTV) CCA, CEH, DGA, FI, IFP, NBR, PGA
The Velvet Underground (Apple) — podcast (Todd Haynes) ACE, CAS, CEH, MPSE
The Rescue (Nat Geo) ACE, CCA, CEH, DGA, NBR, PGA
Possibilities
Attica (Showtime) CCA, DGA, NBR
Simple as Water (HBO) PGA
The First Wave (Neon) — podcast (Matthew Heineman) PGA
In the Same Breath (HBO) FI, IDA, PGA
Billie Eilish: The World’s a Little Blurry (Apple) ACE, MPSE
Longer Shots
Writing With Fire (Music Box) IDA, PGA
Faya Dayi (Janus Films) ASC, CEH, IDA, IFP
Procession (Netflix) CCA, FI
President (Greenwich) IFP
Julia (Sony Classics)
*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE*
Frontrunners
Drive My Car (Japan) CCA, FI, HFPA, IFP
The Hand of God (Italy) CCA, HFPA, MPSE
The Worst Person in the World (Norway) CCA, IFP, NBR, NYFCC
A Hero (Iran) — podcast (Asghar Farhadi) CCA, HFPA, MPSE, NBR
Flee (Denmark) CCA
Possibilities
Compartment No. 6 (Finland) FI, HFPA
Great Freedom (Austria)
Prayers for the Stolen (Mexico) FI
The Good Boss (Spain)
Playground (Belgium)
Longer Shots
I’m Your Man (Germany)
Lamb (Iceland) NBR
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
Hive (Kosovo)
Plaza Catedral (Panama)
*BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY*
Frontrunners
Dune (Greig Fraser) ASC, CCA, CI
The Power of the Dog (Ari Wegner) ASC, CCA, LAFCA
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Bruno Delbonnel) ASC, CCA, CI, NBR
Belfast (Haris Zambarloukos) ASC, CCA
West Side Story (Janusz Kaminski) CCA, NYFCC
Possibilities
Nightmare Alley (Dan Laustsen) ASC, CCA
No Time to Die (Linus Sandgren)
Passing (Edu Grau) FI
C’mon C’mon (Robbie Ryan) CI
Don’t Look Up (Linus Sandgren)
Cyrano (Seamus McGarvey)
Longer Shots
The Green Knight (Andrew Droz Palermo) NSFC
Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson & Michael Bauman)
Last Night in Soho (Chung Chung-hoon)
The French Dispatch (Robert Yeoman)
Drive My Car (Hidetoshi Shinomiya)
Spider-Man: No Way Home (Mauro Fiore)
*BEST COSTUME DESIGN*
Frontrunners
West Side Story (Paul Tazewell) CCA, CDG
Dune (Robert Morgan & Jacqueline West) CCA, CDG
Cruella (Jenny Beavan) CCA, CDG
Nightmare Alley (Luis Sequeira) CCA, CDG
The French Dispatch (Milena Canonero)
Possibilities
Coming 2 America (Ruth E. Carter) CDG
Cyrano (Jacqueline Durran & Massimo Cantini Parrini) CDG
House of Gucci (Janty Yates) CCA, CDG
Licorice Pizza (Mark Bridges)
Spencer (Jacqueline Durran)
Last Night in Soho (Odile Dicks-Mireaux)
Belfast (Charlotte Walker)
The Power of the Dog (Kirsty Cameron)
Mothering Sunday (Sandy Powell)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Mary Zophres)
Being the Ricardos (Susan Lyall)
Longer Shots
Passing (Marci Rodgers)
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (Kym Barrett) CDG
The Green Knight (Malgosia Turzanska) CDG
In the Heights (Mitchell Travers) CDG
The Matrix Resurrections (Lindsay Pugh) CDG
The Suicide Squad (Judianna Makovsky) CDG
No Time to Die (Suttirat Anne Larlarb) CDG
Don’t Look Up (Susan Matheson) CDG
Zola (Derica Cole Washington) CDG
Spider-Man: No Way Home (Sanja M. Hays) CDG
*BEST FILM EDITING*
Frontrunners
Dune (Joe Walker) ACE, CCA
Belfast (Una Ni Dhonghaile) ACE, CCA
The Power of the Dog (Peter Sciberras) ACE, CCA
No Time to Die (Tom Cross & Elliot Graham) ACE
West Side Story (Sarah Broshar & Michael Kahn) CCA
Possibilities
Summer of Soul (Joshua L. Pearson) LAFCA
Licorice Pizza (Andy Jurgensen) ACE
Don’t Look Up (Hank Corwin) ACE
Nightmare Alley (Cam McLauchlin)
Spider-Man: No Way Home (Leigh Folsom & Jeffrey Ford)
Tick, Tick … Boom! (Myron Kerstein & Andrew Weisblum) ACE
The French Dispatch (Andrew Weisblum) ACE
King Richard (Pamela Martin) ACE
Longer Shots
CODA (Geraud Brisson)
Being the Ricardos (Alan Baumgarten) CCA
House of Gucci (Claire Simpson)
Last Night in Soho (Paul Machliss)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Joel Coen & Lucian Johnston)
Cruella (Tatiana S. Riegel) ACE
The Lost Daughter (Affonso Gon?alves)
The Hand of God (Cristiano Travaglioli)
*BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING*
Frontrunners
Dune CCA, MUHS
Cruella CCA, MUHS
The Eyes of Tammy Faye CCA, MUHS
West Side Story MUHS
No Time to Die MUHS
Possibilities
House of Gucci CCA, MUHS
Nightmare Alley CCA
Coming 2 America MUHS
The Suicide Squad MUHS
Cyrano
*BEST ORIGINAL SCORE*
Frontrunners
Dune (Hans Zimmer) CCA, HFPA, HMMA, SCL
The Power of the Dog (Jonny Greenwood) CCA, HFPA, HMMA, SCL
The French Dispatch (Alexandre Desplat) HFPA, HMMA, SCL
Don’t Look Up (Nicholas Britell) CCA, HMMA, SCL
No Time to Die (Hans Zimmer) HMMA
Possibilities
Parallel Mothers (Alberto Iglesias) HFPA, HMMA, LAFCA, SCL
King Richard (Kris Bowers) HMMA
Encanto (Germaine Franco) HFPA, SCL
Spencer (Jonny Greenwood) CCA, SCL
The Harder They Fall (Jeymes Samuel)
Longer Shots
The Last Duel (Harry Gregson-Williams) HMMA
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Carter Burwell) HMMA
The Green Knight (Daniel Hart) SCL
Being the Ricardos (Daniel Pemberton)
Candyman (Robert A.A. Lowe)
*BEST ORIGINAL SONG*
Frontrunners
“No Time to Die” — Billie Eilish & Finneas O’Connell (No Time to Die) — podcast CCA, HFPA, HMMA, SCL
“Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)” — Jamie Alexander Hartman, Jennifer Hudson & Carole King (Respect) HFPA, HMMA, SCL
“Guns Go Bang” — Jay-Z, Scott Mescudi [Kid Cudi] & Jeymes Samuel (The Harder They Fall) CCA, HMMA, SCL
“Just Look Up” — Nicholas Britell, Ariana Grande, Scott Mescudi [Kid Cudi] & Taura Stinson (Don’t Look Up) CCA, HMMA, SCL
“So May We Start” — Ron Mael & Russell Mael (Annette)
Possibilities
“Your Song Saved My Life” — Bono, The Edge, Adam Clayton, Larry Mullen Jr. (Sing 2) — podcast [Bono & The Edge] HMMA
“Be Alive” — Beyoncé Knowles-Carter & Darius Scott (King Richard) CCA, HFPA, HMMA
“Down to Joy” — Van Morrison (Belfast) HFPA, HMMA
“Somehow You Do” — Diane Warren (Four Good Days) — podcast HMMA, SCL
“Dos Oruguitas” — Lin-Manuel Miranda (Encanto) — podcast CCA, HFPA
Longer Shots
“Automatic Woman” — H.E.R., Van Hun & Starrah (Bruised) — podcast
“Beyond the Shore” — Nicholai Baxter, Matt Dahan, Sian Heder & Marius de Vries (CODA) HMMA
“The Anonymous Ones” — Benj Pasek, Justin Paul & Amandla Stenberg (Dear Evan Hansen)
“Right Where I Belong” — Brian Wilson & Jim James (Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road) HMMA
“Dream Girl” — Idina Menzel & Laura Veltz (Cinderella)
*BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN*
Frontrunners
Dune (Zsuzsanna Sipos & Patrice Vermette) ADG, CCA
West Side Story (Rena DeAngelo & Adam Stockhausen) ADG, CCA
The French Dispatch (Rena DeAngelo & Adam Stockhausen) ADG, CCA
Nightmare Alley (Tamara Deverell & Shane Vieau) ADG, CCA
Belfast (Jim Clay & Claire Nina Richards) CCA
Possibilities
No Time to Die (Dennis Gassner & Mark Tildesley) ADG
Cruella (Fiona Crumbie & Alice Felton) ADG
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Stefan Dechant & Nancy Haigh) ADG
Licorice Pizza (Florencia Martin & Ryan Watson) ADG
Don’t Look Up (Clayton Hartley) ADG
The Power of the Dog (Grant Major & Amber Richards)
Longer Shots
In the Heights (Nelson Coates) ADG
Cyrano (Sarah Greenwood & Katie Spencer)
Last Night in Soho (Victoria Allwood, Judy Farr & Emily Norris)
Spider-Man: No Way Home (Sam Avila & Darren Gilford)
The Lost Daughter (Inbal Weinberg) ADG
House of Gucci (Arthur Max & Letizia Santucci)
*BEST SOUND*
Frontrunners
West Side Story CAS, MPSE
Dune CAS, MPSE
No Time to Die CAS, MPSE
Spider-Man: No Way Home CAS, MPSE
Tick, Tick… Boom! MPSE
Possibilities
The Power of the Dog CAS, MPSE
Belfast MPSE
The Matrix Resurrections MPSE
Last Night in Soho MPSE
A Quiet Place Part II
*BEST VISUAL EFFECTS*
Frontrunners
Dune CCA, VES
No Time to Die CCA
The Matrix Resurrections CCA, VES
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings CCA, VES
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Possibilities
Godzilla vs. Kong VES
Eternals
Black Widow
Ghostbusters: Afterlife
Free Guy
*BEST ANIMATED SHORT*
Shortlist (alphabetical)
Affairs of the Art
Angakusajaujuq: The Shaman’s Apprentice
Bad Seeds
Bestia ANN
Boxballet
Flowing Home
Mum Is Pouring Rain
The Musician
Namoo
Only a Child
Robin Robin
Souvenir Souvenir
Step Into the River
Us Again
The Windshield Wiper
*BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT*
Shortlist (alphabetical)
águilas
Audible
A Broken House
Camp Confidential: America’s Secret Nazis
Coded: The Hidden Love of J.C. Leyendecker
Day of Rage
The Facility
Lead Me Home
Lynching Postcards: “Token of a Great Day”
The Queen of Basketball
Sophie & the Baron
Takeover
Terror Contagion
Three Songs for Benazir
When We Were Bullies
*BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT*
Shortlist (alphabetical)
Ala Kachuu — Take and Run
Censor of Dreams
The Criminals
Distances
The Dress
Frimas
Les Grandes Claques
The Long Goodbye
On My Mind
Please Hold
Stenofonen
Tala’vision
Under the Heavens
When the Sun Sets
You’re Dead Helen
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