Experts slugfest: Debating the 4 Oscar acting races — and whether Isabella Rossellini will really pull off ‘an upset’
Who will win the four acting races at the upcoming Academy Awards? Five top Oscar experts — Gold Derby's Debra Birnbaum, Variety's Clayton Davis, The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg, Deadline's Pete Hammond, and Indiewire's Anne Thompson — think they know. Watch the Oscars slugfest video above.
While everyone agrees that Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) is a lock for supporting actor, there isn't unanimous consensus around supporting actress, because, in a shocker, Davis is predicting underdog Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) to prevail over frontrunner Zoe Salda?a (Emilia Pérez).
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"I'm going to put as my no guts, no glory prediction that we're going to see an upset in supporting actress," Davis declares. When the other pundits question his choice, he explains, "Listen, based on my findings, she's getting a lot of votes [on anonymous ballots]. A lot of older people are voting for her. They like the movie. I find her present on ballots that have a lot of Anora and Brutalist on it, which are a part of the top three."
Birnbaum chimes in, "I don't think you can outweigh all of the awards that Zoe has won versus a couple of anonymous ballots." For the record: Salda?a is undefeated, winning at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTAs, and SAG Awards, while Rossellini is still empty-handed.
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Moving over to Best Actor, Thompson doesn't put a lot of merit in SAG's decision to reward Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) over Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) because it's a "more mainstream group." She adds, "It's still Adrien Brody. He carries The Brutalist. It's an extraordinary dramatic performance. It's Holocaust survivor. There's so many reasons why it's the serious performance to beat." The other pundits are all picking Brody, too, but warn to watch out for both Chalamet and Ralph Fiennes (Conclave).
As for Best Actress, Hammond thinks Demi Moore (The Substance) has the edge because "she's been around" and has been delivering amazing speeches. Mikey Madison (Anora) is "fantastic," but "she's young and she'll have other chances ... will Demi? I don't know." And then he brings up the "wildcard" of the season, Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here), who gives a "beyond magnificent" performance, but who hasn't been seen at an awards show since her victory at the Golden Globes.
"I'm using my last few hours before I have to lock in my final picks to ponder all of this," Feinberg readily admits. "But I don't think it's crazy to think that Mikey, even though she's only won the BAFTA, could still do this." He suggests that "not everyone will have seen or stuck with The Substance — it's very polarizing." Similarly, I'm Still Here is "very admired, but not as widely seen" by the Academy at large.
Which Oscar expert do you agree with the most? Sound off down in the comments section and join the discussion in our movie forums.
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