Emmys cliffhanger: Will ‘House of the Dragon’ cast outdo ‘Game of Thrones’?

Jacob Sarkisian
·7 min read

“House of the Dragon” will be looking to chase down its predecessor “Game of Thrones” at this year’s Emmys. “Thrones” followed a battle for the Iron Throne between major political players while the looming threat of an age-old figure, the Night King, began to rise once more. “House of the Dragon,” meanwhile, set nearly 200 years before “Thrones,” follows the civil war between the Targaryen family as they fight to rule Westeros. Both shows feature astonishing casts with brilliant performances, but “House of the Dragon” will be looking to match or beat the Emmys feat that the “Thrones” cast managed — 10 acting nominations in a single year for its cast.

“Thrones” was a mammoth player at the Emmys, winning an whopping 59 awards across its eight seasons. In total, the show’s cast was nominated 32 times. Here’s the breakdown: Seasons one and two garnered just a single bid — Peter Dinklage for Drama Supporting Actor for playing Tyrion Lannister. Season three upped the ante, however, with three nominations — Dinklage again, plus a Drama Supporting Actress bid for Emilia Clarke (Daenerys Targaryen), and a Drama Guest Actress bid for Diana Rigg (Olenna Tyrell). Dinklage and Rigg were nominated in the same categories again for season four, while it was Cersei Lannister actress Lena Headey who was this time nominated for Drama Supporting Actress to make a total of three season four nominations.

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Dinklage, Headey, and Rigg were nominated for the same categories again in season five, while Clarke picked up her second nomination for Drama Supporting Actress. Four in total for season five. Season six went a couple better, however, as it landed six nominations. Dinklage, Headey, and Clarke were all nominated again while Kit Harington (Jon Snow) joined Dinklage in Drama Supporting Actor and Maisie Williams (Arya Stark) joined Clarke and Headey in Drama Supporting Actress. Plus, Max von Sydow (The Three-Eyed Raven) was nominated for Drama Guest Actor. Season seven was nominated for four acting bids — Dinklage and Headey, as usual, plus Rigg for her final Drama Guest Actress nomination. The fourth bid went to Nikolaj Coster-Waldau (Jaime Lannister) for Drama Supporting Actor.

Curiously, however, it was the much-maligned eighth season that earned the show its highest amount of acting nominations in a single year with a whopping 10 bids. Harington and Clarke were promoted to Drama Actor and Drama Actress, respectively, while Dinklage and Coster-Waldau were again nominated for Drama Supporting Actor. Theon Greyjoy actor Alfie Allen joined them. Headey and Williams were joined in Drama Supporting Actress by Sansa Stark performer Sophie Turner and Brienne of Tarth actress Gwendoline Christie. The 10th acting bid went to Carice van Houten for Drama Guest Actress.

Combined, that is a gargantuan 32 nominations for the acting in “Thrones.” However, voters were a little more reserved when it came to handing out victories for the “Thrones” cast — only four of those 32 bids turned into actual wins. They all came for Dinklage, who won Drama Supporting Actor for seasons one, five, seven, and eight. “Thrones” had the best success in the Drama Supporting Actor category, where it got 12 of its 32 nominations and all four of its wins. Drama Supporting Actress is just behind — it was nominated 11 times in this category. And the guest categories did well for “Thrones,” too, amassing six total nominations across both Drama Guest Actor and Drama Guest Actress.

But what about “House of the Dragon?” Will this well-reviewed show be able to match that outrageous “Thrones” season eight record of 10 nominations? Well, the good news is that “House of the Dragon” has 12 actors in the running for various categories this year. The bad news? Only two of those are predicted to be nominated. Firstly, we think Emma D’Arcy (the elder version of Queen Rhaenyra) will be nominated for Drama Actress alongside Elisabeth Moss (“The Handmaid’s Tale”), Imelda Staunton (“The Crown”), Bella Ramsey (“The Last of Us”), Melanie Lynskey (“Yellowjackets”), and Sarah Snook (“Succession”). D’Arcy has got a great chance at a nomination here — Rhaenyra is the heart of the show and gets arguably the best character arc as she goes from princess to queen. D’Arcy will be strong in voters’ minds.

Meanwhile, we also predict that Matt Smith (the unpredictable Daemon Targaryen) will be nominated for Drama Supporting Actor, alongside John Lithgow (“The Old Man”), “Succession” trio Alexander Skarsg?rd, Nicholaus Braun, and Alan Ruck, F. Murray Abraham (“The White Lotus”), Giancarlo Esposito (“Better Call Saul”), and Matthew Macfadyen (also “Succession”). Out of all of his co-stars, Smith has the best chance here. We know that voters love the more colorful supporting roles in Westeros. Dinklage reaped the rewards of that love and Smith, whose Daemon is probably the most charismatic character in “House of the Dragon,” could follow suit.

However, there are plenty of actors who could be nominated elsewhere. Paddy Considine is right on the precipice of a nomination for Drama Actor. He’s only just outside of our odds chart for that category, so he could well get in for his transformative performance as King Viserys Targaryen. His performance was so good that “Thrones” writer George RR Martin said that Considine’s Viserys is better than his own.

Olivia Cooke (the elder Alicent Hightower) and Milly Alcock (the younger Rhaenyra) are also both just outside of our predicted nominees in the Drama Supporting Actress odds chart, along with Emily Carey (the younger Alicent) and Eve Best (Rhaenys Targaryen). Those four actresses have Westeros history on their side — they are competing in the Drama Supporting Actress category, which we know from the stat above that Emmy voters liked a lot for “Game of Thrones.” Similarly, Rhys Ifans (Otto Hightower), Steve Toussaint (Corlys Velaryon), and Fabien Frankel (Criston Cole) will be hoping that their supporting turns can lead to a nomination in the same way that so many did for “Game of Thrones.”

Curiously, there are only two actors competing for guest roles for “House of the Dragon.” Queen Aemma Arryn actress Sian Brooke for Drama Guest Actress and Ty Tennant, the younger Aegon Targaryen, for Drama Guest Actor. Both of those are way outside of our predicted lineups, however.

So, it looks like “House of the Dragon” will fall far short of that “Thrones” record of 10 nominations for season eight. But “Thrones” had built up its love and respect over eight years, so much so that even the controversy surrounding the eighth and final season didn’t prevent the show from landing 10 acting bids, its most ever. This is the inaugural season of “House of the Dragon” and many people went into this show with skepticism thanks to the furor around “Thrones” season eight.

“House of the Dragon” has had to start from scratch — it doesn’t have the years’ worth of love, admiration, and history to trade in on like “Thrones” did. Future seasons of “House of the Dragon” may well garner more acting bids but, for now, this season will likely get only two. But that’s double the amount that the first season of “Thrones” managed, so that’s a win for “House of the Dragon.” Plus, if either D’Arcy or Smith manage to turn their expected bids into wins (we aren’t predicting them to do that just yet, it should be mentioned), then they will match the record of acting wins in one season that “Thrones” set — just one. Let’s see how things play out.

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