What Does the No. 1 Debut of ‘WHAM’ Mean for Lil Baby’s Career?
For the fourth time in four tries this decade, Lil Baby has the No. 1 album in the country.
The rap star’s latest, WHAM (which stands for Who Hard as Me), bows atop the Billboard 200 this week (dated Jan. 18) with 140,000 first-week units. It follows the No. 1 debuts of 2020’s My Turn, 2021’s The Voice of the Heroes (with Lil Durk) and 2022’s It’s Only Me — albeit with the lowest first-week number of the four sets, and only one track debuting in the Billboard Hot 100‘s top 40: the Future and Young Thug collab “Dum, Dumb and Dumber” (No. 16).
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What does the album bow mean for Lil Baby’s stardom? And what should he be focusing more on with his future album releases? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
1. WHAM debuts at No. 1 with 140,000 equivalent album units moved. On a scale from 1-10, how happy do you think Lil Baby should be with that first-week performance?
Kyle Denis: A strong 8. Pulling a six-figure opening week is nothing to scoff at, and Lil Baby has done it with his last three studio albums. WHAM’s numbers are even more impressive when you consider that the album doesn’t include any of the three solo standalone singles (“5AM,” “Insecurities” and “Touchdown”) he dropped leading up to the record’s full release. Given the lukewarm reception to WHAM online from casual and devoted fans alike, WHAM’s first-week performance is a triumph for Baby.
Carl Lamarre: 10. I’m beyond elated if I’m Baby, because the internet wasn’t thinking too fondly of my release. Plus, I escaped Bad Bunny by a millisecond after he dropped his album two days after mine. For Baby, he’s no longer the indomitable force he was after his volcanic opus My Turn blitzed the industry in 2020. There’s no reason why LiAngelo Ball, an overnight success, should generate more traction than an established superstar like Baby to start the calendar year. Despite those glaring concerns, Baby ended up on top, and that’s what matters most.
Jason Lipshutz: A 7. Releasing an album in the opening week of the year can be a little dicey, as listeners divert their attention away from Christmas music and refocus following their holiday breaks. Lil Baby placed a bet on being the biggest game in town once the calendar flipped over to 2025, and sure enough, he snagged another No. 1 debut — with a lower equivalent album units total than 2022’s It’s Only Me, but with a track list roughly half as long as its predecessor hampering streams a bit, so a six-figure bow is pretty impressive.
Michael Saponara: I think he’s gotta be at a 9. To outsell Bad Bunny and debut at No. 1 after Baby’s 2024 singles weren’t generating a ton of buzz is a major W.
Andrew Unterberger: At least an 8. Yes, things might’ve tilted differently if Bad Bunny had a full first week to work with, but the fact that Benito made such a late charge and Baby still ended up on top — while also eclipsing SZA’s revitalized SOS blockbuster — is no small feat, and speaks to the rapper’s continued resonance.
2. The star-studded “Dum, Dumb and Dumber” with Future and Young Thug is the set’s top debut on the Billboard Hot 100, entering in the top 20. Does it feel like a long-lasting hit, or is it mostly bowing so high on the strength of its guest list?
Kyle Denis: This doesn’t feel like a long-lasting hit to me, and it feels particularly tepid for Thugger’s first post-prison verse. I’d be surprised if any of the WHAM songs stick around and become hits on the level of “We Paid” or “Sum 2 Prove.” Maybe the Dominique album will fare better in that arena.
Carl Lamarre: The more I listen to it, the more I like it, but I don’t see it having the endurance of being a long-lasting hit. A torrid Future coming off three No. 1 albums in ’24 alongside Thug’s first post-jail verse should be enough to blow the top off any record, but I don’t think these guys really brought their A-game this time. It felt more like a scrimmage versus a full-throttled performance.
Jason Lipshutz: Although it might never climb higher on the Hot 100 than its current peak, I think it’s going to endure. “Dum, Dumb and Dumber” was obviously newsworthy as Young Thug’s return to the microphone, but Lil Baby and Future match his level of urgency on the track; the beat, co-produced by Wheezy, wails and pummels, letting all three stars rise toward its intensity without relenting for a chorus. That lack of a hook might limit its crossover potential, but I’d bet on “Dum, Dumb and Dumber” continuing to accrue millions of streams and dominate hip-hop playlists in the coming months.
Michael Saponara: Young Thug’s first spotlighted verse since being released from jail combined with a Future reunion is a formula for commercial success. Baby capitalized on the moment and it’s a solid three-man weave between the Atlanta trio, but I don’t see it having a ton of staying power in the Hot 100’s top 25.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s a strong song, and I don’t think it’s going to disappear from the culture completely, but I dunno if it really has enough of a hook — either in terms of a chorus or just an overall narrative coherence — to really keep listeners coming back. It’s great to hear those three voices together on a track again, though, no doubt.
3. Bad Bunny debuts just underneath Baby with his new set Debí Tirar Más Fotos, which notches 122,000 in an incomplete first week. Given that the album was released on a Sunday, already a full two days into the tracking week, do you think it’ll have a good shot at climbing to No. 1 on next week’s chart?
Kyle Denis: Absolutely. Bad Bunny dropped a compelling project, and it’s resonating with people as several songs on the album morph into breakout streaming hits around the world. Between viral quotes from a Rolling Stone interview, an NYC subway takeover, a short film, and co-hosting The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon, Bad Bunny has been extremely present throughout the past week, which will only help the second-week performance of Debí Tirar Más Fotos. Of course, Benito is also getting a lot of good press for his innovative approach to ticketing for his upcoming Puerto Rico residency.
But this record also already has much more positive word of mouth than his last LP, 2023’s Nadie Sabe Lo Que Va a Pasar Ma?ana, and that’s probably the clearest sign that DTMF momentum is just getting started.
Carl Lamarre: I don’t see Baby’s album securing another week at No. 1 for this cycle. The fact that Bunny was only 18,000 units shy of sealing another No. 1 album after an incomplete week is telling, and worrisome for Camp Baby. There’s more chatter surrounding Bunny’s album because of the storytelling, the chances he took sonically, and the ingenious rollout. Bunny’s Rolling Stone interview and recent subway performance with Jimmy Fallon resonated more with people than Baby’s conversation with Charlamagne and his late-night outings.
Jason Lipshutz: Definitely. If you take a peek at daily streaming charts, Bad Bunny’s new album is not just performing strongly but seems to be gaining momentum, with the crackling “DtMF” leading a slew of tracks that will likely fly up the Hot 100 chart next week. The Sunday release helped prevent Bad Bunny from scoring another No. 1 debut himself, but he’s got a great shot at getting there next week, especially considering that there are no new Lil Baby-sized debuts to for Debí Tirar Más Fotos to compete with.
Michael Saponara: Yeah, Bad Bunny should do another solid number next week as the tracks are still streaming well across DSPs. However, Mac Miller’s posthumous Balloonerism arrives on Friday (Jan. 17) which could interrupt Benito’s run at No. 1 pretty quickly should he claim the top spot next week.
Andrew Unterberger: Yeah it certainly should be considered a frontrunner to claim the top spot in the next couple weeks. Really cool to see Bad Bunny on track to another enduring full-length, in the wintertime no less.
4. Lil Baby’s career momentum has been trending somewhat in the wrong direction since the 2020 breakthrough of My Turn made him one of the biggest stars in hip-hop. Does WHAM and the early reception to it give you confidence that he can turn that around?
Kyle Denis: My biggest gripe with WHAM is how Baby is seemingly unwilling to deviate from the formula established with his mixtapes and first three albums. The record lacks standout moments, but it’s not a poor collection of songs – he’s just not pushing himself in meaningful or interesting ways. As it stands, Wham tells me that Baby is okay not fulfilling the role of “generation leader” that many tried to cast him in back in 2020. I think Baby has the talent to turn his momentum around, but it’s probably more of a matter of how happy he is with where he’s currently at.
Carl Lamarre: For Baby to land back-to-back No. 1 albums despite falling flat musically speaks a lot to his fanbase. They still believe in him because of his Herculean effort on My Turn. In 2020, he accomplished what few manage to do in the modern-day rap era: conquer the charts and, more importantly, the hearts of listeners. That’s why fans of artists like Roddy Ricch still have hope, as he achieved that same feat with his 2019 debut album. But, like Roddy, Baby is possibly down to his last strike after failing to connect on his previous two projects.
Jason Lipshutz: Lil Baby is an interesting case study in 2020s hip-hop, where an artist can score multiple No. 1 albums and top 10 Hot 100 hits, remain a constant presence on New Music Friday through solo tracks and collaborations, command a sizable touring audience, and yet simultaneously feel like momentum is flagging because the genre is so focused on new voices and achievements. Over the past half-decade, Lil Baby has hunkered down on a winning formula, but also hasn’t taken the artistic chances that can help superstars grow into icons. The chart-topping success of WHAM is in line with what he’s done in the past, and there’s nothing wrong with those commercial wins — but taking the next step as a leader in hip-hop may require an evolution.
Michael Saponara: Turn it around to the level of 2019-2021 Lil Baby? No, but WHAM is a step in the right direction. The test will come next month as Baby already said his Dominique album is slated to arrive in February. Is the appetite for another solo body of work there just a month out? As the great Lee Corso would say, “Not so fast, my friend!”
Andrew Unterberger: It shows me that he still has the fan support that if he ever does release the right project to turn things around, it won’t be too late for him to actually do so. I don’t think this is necessarily the project for that though — it’s solid, but doesn’t really advance his artistry or sound in any meaningful way, so it seems unlikely to have an extensive impact outside of that core fanbase.
5. If you could advise Lil Baby on his next release, is there any particular direction or area of focus you’d recommend he zero in on? Anything to really recapture the excitement of his turn-of-the-‘20s run?
Kyle Denis: Lock in with one executive producer – either Section 8, Twysted Genius, or someone brand new – and try to get back to the headspace that made you sound so voracious on your biggest and best records. And keep making sure those tracklists are tight and concise, WHAM was a good step in that direction.
Carl Lamarre: I would ease down on the Autotune and tap more into his heartfelt bag like he did the intro and outro of WHAM. I thought “Listen Up” and “Streets Colder” showed flashes of the old Baby regarding candor and vulnerability. That’s what made songs like “Emotionally Scarred” and “The Bigger Picture” instant classics upon first listen. Ultimately, he could be back in everyone’s good graces if he can connect the dots and inject that same pathos into his bars on the next album.
Jason Lipshutz: I find it interesting that “The Bigger Picture” — a smart, incisive single that captured the energy around the 2020 Black Lives Matter protests — has yet to receive a proper follow-up, or anything too overtly political, from Lil Baby. Maybe he’s not interested in that lane, but his level of thoughtfulness, refined flow and broad appeal would help him dominate it, if he so chooses.
Michael Saponara: Instead of coming back next month with another solo project, I’d say to finish the joint album he teased with Future and mix in some Young Thug. I think that would really galvanize his fan base and put the rest of the rap game on notice while holding his own with a pair of his heavyweight ATL peers.
Andrew Unterberger: The answer is almost always “focus” — make an album that feels a little more purposeful in its songs, track ordering, guest list and overall messaging. I might also encourage Baby to do a team-up album with a younger, ascending rap star, someone who can maybe challenge him a little and get him a little more motivated to prove himself and his continued supremacy.
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