Dave Karger's 2023 Oscars predictions: It's Fraser vs. Farrell in the Best Actor race
As the fall season continues, several top contenders are becoming more widely seen by industry people and regular audiences alike. Now that we're just a few weeks away from the first crop of critics awards and nominations, here are my current ranked lists of the top 12 contenders in each of the top six categories.
Best Picture
This year's mandated 10-nominee line-up means that films of all different budgets and genres should make it into the race. The strong early response to Black Panther: Wakanda Forever moves it up a couple notches in my rankings. Right now I'd say the impressive dramas The Woman King and She Said are just outside of these 12 contenders.
The Fabelmans
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All At Once
TáR
Women Talking
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Top Gun: Maverick
Empire of Light
Avatar: The Way of Water
Elvis
Marvel Studios 'Black Panther: Wakanda Forever'
Best Director
Steven Spielberg remains the early favorite for his very personal drama, The Fabelmans. Women Talking's Sarah Polley, meanwhile, is the best shot against an all-male roster in this category.
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Todd Field, TáR
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Daniel Scheinert & Dan Kwan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Rian Johnson, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Sam Mendes, Empire of Light
James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
Damien Chazelle, Babylon
Baz Luhrmann, Elvis
Best Actor
This category still strikes me as a race between two respected veteran actors who have never been nominated: Brendan Fraser and Colin Farrell. Farrell sits at the top of my rankings because I anticipate a more favorable overall response to The Banshees of Inisherin. Will Smith remains the wild card for his late entry, Emancipation. He's an outside contender but his still-controversial persona makes him a long shot at best.
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Austin Butler, Elvis
Hugh Jackman, The Son
Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans
Jeremy Pope, The Inspection
Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
Adam Sandler, Hustle
Bill Nighy, Living
Daniel Craig, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Searchlight Pictures Brendan Gleeson and Colin Farrell in 'The Banshees of Inisherin'
Best Actress
The top five here seem impenetrable right now, with the possible exception of The Woman King's Viola Davis, although I don't see who she could bump out. Danielle Deadwyler should see her profile rise as more people see her remarkable performance in Till. I'd love to see more attention, meanwhile, for the fabulous Mia Goth from Pearl.
Cate Blanchett, TáR
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway
Mia Goth, Pearl
Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Best Supporting Actor
The supporting races seem much tougher to predict this year. Will films like The Fabelmans and The Banshees of Inisherin score double nods here? It very well could happen.
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ben Whishaw, Women Talking
Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time
Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse
Jeremy Strong, Armageddon Time
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
JoJo Whilden/Universal Pictures Zoe Kazan and Carey Mulligan in 'She Said'
Best Supporting Actress
Carey Mulligan's decision to go supporting for She Said provides a shake-up in this category. Meanwhile, the rising buzz for Everything Everywhere All at Once bumps Jamie Lee Curtis up into the top five in my rankings.
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jessie Buckley, Women Talking
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Claire Foy, Women Talking
Carey Mulligan, She Said
Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Nina Hoss, TáR
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Laura Dern, The Son
Thuso Mbedu, The Woman King
Known in the FYC industry for his expert Oscars predictions, Awards correspondent Dave Karger (who spent 17 years on staff at EW, writing over 50 cover stories) has made more than 200 live appearances on NBC's Today to talk movies and awards, and has co-hosted ABC's Live From the Red Carpet on Oscar night. Watch this space for his regularly updated rankings within the major categories.
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