Cynthia Erivo and Marianne Jean-Baptiste could make Best Actress Oscar history for just the third time in 97 years
In the past 96 years of the Academy Awards, there have only been two years in which two Black women were nominated for Best Actress in the same year. That ignominious statistic could very well change for the better this year, as performers Cynthia Erivo (“Wicked”) and Marianne Jean-Baptiste (“Hard Truths”) are both closing in on nominations.
Erivo’s star turn as Elphaba, a role which won the Best Musical Actress trophy at the 2004 Tony Awards for Idina Menzel, currently ranks fifth in our combined Oscar odds. It would mark her second nomination in the category, following her breakout film role as Harriet Tubman in “Harriet” (2019). The actress earned two nominations that year, also receiving recognition for the song “Stand Up,” which she wrote with Joshuah Brian Campbell. The Tony winner for “The Color Purple” currently has 80% of experts and 40% of Gold Derby editors predicting her for the nom.
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SEE Oscar odds update: ‘Wicked’ star Cynthia Erivo soars into experts’ Best Actress predictions
Jean-Baptiste currently sits just one slot behind Erivo, but is a very strong contender in an especially unpredictable race. Like Erivo, she has a previous Oscar nomination for “Secrets & Lies” (1996), which was also written and directed by “Hard Truths’s” Mike Leigh. Leigh films tend to do well in the acting categories: aside from Jean-Baptiste’s bid for “Secrets & Lies,” Brenda Blethyn landed a Best Actress bid, and his “Vera Drake” scored Imelda Staunton her sole Best Actress nom in 2004. In our odds, 50% of experts and an impressive 70% of our editors predict Jean-Baptiste for the nomination.
Erivo and Jean-Baptiste currently trail Mikey Madison (“Anora”), Angelina Jolie (“Maria”), Karla Sofía Gascón (“Emilia Perez”), and Nicole Kidman (“Babygirl”), who currently occupy Gold Derby’s top four.
Erivo may certainly be helped by the strength of “Wicked” heading into the thick of awards season. The movie was just named Best Film by the National Board of Review, which also awarded director Jon M. Chu. It was also cited as one of the American Film Institute’s top 10 movies of the year. “Wicked” has thus been surging in our odds, with 93% of experts, 91.9% of users, and 90% of editors predicting it in Best Picture. She also just netted the Golden Globe nomination in the Comedy/Musical Actress category, the fourth of her career following two bids for “Harriet” and one for “Genius.”
Jean-Baptiste has been picking up important precursor nominations and awards for her performance. She just won the coveted Best Actress prize from the New York Film Critics Circle. In the past 14 years, nine of the winners of this prize have gone on to earn a corresponding Best Actress nom at the Oscars. Those performers were Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”), Cate Blanchett (“Tár”), Saoirse Ronan (“Lady Bird”), Isabelle Huppert (“Elle”), Ronan (“Brooklyn”), Marion Cotillard (“Two Days, One Night”), Blanchett (“Blue Jasmine”), Meryl Streep (“The Iron Lady”), and Annette Bening (“The Kids Are All Right”). She also picked up a wins with the Los Angeles Film Critics Awards as one of the two winning Lead Performances alongside Madison and from the British Independent Film Awards for Best Lead Performance. She received an additional bid at the Gotham Awards, as did the film in International Feature. The film nabbed another International Feature nom at the Spirit Awards, and a screenplay bid and a citation as one of the top 10 independent films from the National Board of Review. She was unexpectedly snubbed by the Golden Globes, though, where she ranked third in our combined picks for Drama Actress.
Should Erivo and Jean-Baptiste both receive nominations, it would be just the third time in Oscar history that two Black actresses were nominated together in the top acting category. The first time dates back to film year 1972, when Diana Ross (“Lady Sings the Blues”) and Cicely Tyson (“Sounder”) both earned bids; they were bested by Liza Minnelli (“Cabaret”) and shared the category with Maggie Smith (“Travels with My Aunt”) and Liv Ullmann (“The Emigrants”). The second and most recent time happened in film year 2020, when Viola Davis (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”) and Andra Day (“The United Sates vs. Billie Holiday”) were both nominated; Frances McDormand (“Nomadland”) prevailed, and Vanessa Kirby (“Pieces of a Woman”) and Carey Mulligan (“Promising Young Woman”) were also nominated.
Academy voters had the chance to nominated Davis and Danielle Deadwyler together just two years ago for “The Woman King” and “Till,” respectively, but both were overlooked. Leading up to the Oscar noms, Davis had scored BAFTA, Critics Choice, Golden Globes, and Screen Actors Guild Award nominations for the role, while Deadwyler had BAFTA, Critics Choice, Gotham, and Screen Actors Guild Award noms, which made both of their omissions particularly surprising. Deadwyler could compete this year in the Supporting Actress category for “The Piano Lesson.”
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