Box Office Vindication: ‘Mufasa’ Passes Up ‘Sonic 3’ in U.S., Heads for $700M Globally
Mufasa: The Lion King has been vindicated.
On Friday, Disney’s prequel and follow-up to 2019’s The Lion King narrowly passed up Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog 3 at the domestic box office with $232.7 million in ticket sales, a feat no one thought possible after a muted opening at the Christmas box office. And by Sunday, its global total will be around $670 million as it prepares to jump to the $700 million mark against a $200 million-plus production budget before marketing.
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Not that Sonic 3 isn’t its own huge success story. It’s earned a franchise-best $231.7 million domestically through Friday and $463.7 million globally against a production budget of $122 million. It’s very rare that a threequel earns 20 percent more than a previous title in the series, meaning it’s a growth property that would make any rival studio see green.
Rather, this is about Mufasa‘s impressive staying power thanks to strong word of mouth, viral marketing and a longer exclusive theatrical window, even if the prequel will never come close to matching The Lion King, which exceeded all expectations in grossing $1.66 billion globally just months before the COVID pandemic struck and changed box office history forever.
Just as pundits questioned whether Jon Favreau’s Lion King redux would work, many were quick to write off Mufasa when it got trounced by Sonic 3 over the Dec. 20-22 weekend. The Disney pic debuted to $35.4 million domestically, versus $64.4 million for Sonic 3. But as families became more available once presents were unwrapped on Christmas day, Mufasa found its roar. What’s happened since is even more impressive. But, unlike Sonic, there’s no guaranteed next installment.
Stats to consider: Mufasa was the No. 1 or No. 2 title for 36 of its first 38 days in release. And to date, it has earned 6.5 times its opening gross. That’s the third-highest multiple ever for a pic playing on more than 3,000 screens and opening to less than $40 million behind 2006’s Night at the Museum (8.2 multiple) and 2009’s The Blind Side (7.5 multiple), not adjusted for inflation.
And it’s the first such wide release since 2010 to cross the $230 million threshold in domestic ticket sales despite opening to less than $40 million from 3,000 or more locations.
Mufasa will have played exclusively in theaters for 60 days before it debuts Feb. 18 on premium VOD. Many major studio titles go to premium VOD notably earlier, including Sonic 3, which became available after 32 days. It’s been well-established that a film can still do viable theatrical business after its release on PVOD — which can generate tens of millions in home entertainment revenue — but Disney insiders say a family film with broad appeal such as Mufasa that plays to younger kids has benefited from a longer window since there is little competition and plenty of repeat business to be had.
In the case of Sonic 3, it saw larger drops than Mufasa even before it went to PVOD, indicating it had already gone through the bulk of its theatrical audience. Still, it has earned more than $8 million in theaters since becoming available in the home, but it did fall out of the top five last weekend. Mufasa looks to place No. 4 over the Feb. 7-9 frame (both films are in their eighth outing).
While critics weren’t crazy about Mufasa, audiences felt differently. It received an A- CinemaScore, sports an 89 percent verified audience score on Rotten Tomatoes and secured stellar exit scores on PostTrak among kids and parents.
Both Mufasa and Sonic 3, both a critical and audience darling, are rated PG and have both played starring roles in the ongoing resurgence of the family box office, which was badly hurt by the pandemic.
Feb. 8, 9:30 p.m.: Updated with additional stats add regarding Sonic 3.
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