Bold Grammy Award predictions: Who will win versus who should win
Women dominate the major nominations for the 67th Grammy Awards, but that doesn’t mean an absence of testosterone.
Kendrick Lamar and Shaboozey could sneak in a win, but there are bigger questions to ponder.
Will it be another musical showdown between Beyoncé and Taylor Swift, with 11 and six nominations, respectively? Seems likely since the superstars are both nominated in album of the year, record of the year and song of the year categories.
Which of 2024’s breakout-stars-who-have-been-in-the-industry-for-a-decade – Sabrina Carpenter or Chappell Roan – had a stronger grip on Grammy voters?
If Lamar does score a win for “Not Like Us,” will he mention archrival Drake, whom the diss track is about, in his acceptance speech?
We do our best to prognosticate, but all will be unveiled at the awards ceremony Sunday. The Grammys, hosted for the fifth time by Trevor Noah, air live on CBS and Paramount+ with Showtime (8 p.m. EST/5 PST) from the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles.
Who will win record of the year?
“Now And Then” The Beatles
“Texas Hold ‘Em” Beyoncé
“Espresso” Sabrina Carpenter
“360” Charli xcx
“Birds of a Feather” Billie Eilish
“Not Like Us” Kendrick Lamar
“Good Luck, Babe!” Chappell Roan
“Fortnight” Taylor Swift Featuring Post Malone
Who will win: “Espresso,” Sabrina Carpenter
Who should win: “Good Luck, Babe!,” Chappell Roan
The Grammys of yesteryear would have overlooked current hitmakers for the security of a legend. In this case, it would be the patchwork Beatles song that marks the band’s final recording and would give the icons their win for first record of the year. (And who wouldn’t want to hear an acceptance speech from Paul McCartney and Ringo Starr?)
But tweaks to the voting procedure and a surplus of robust contenders – Roan, Eilish and Swift among the top – means The Beatles won’t get the final jewel in the Big Four category crown, having won best new artist, album of the year (“Sgt. Pepper’s Lonely Hearts Club Band”) and song of the year (“Michelle,” attributed to McCartney and John Lennon) in the 1960s.
Though Roan’s searing “Good Luck, Babe!” granted her supernova status, the omnipresence of Carpenter’s breakout smash after a decade in the industry (see: best new artist) guarantees coronation.
Who will win album of the year?
“New Blue Sun” André 3000
“Cowboy Carter” Beyoncé
“Short n' Sweet” Sabrina Carpenter
“Brat” Charli xcx
“Djesse Vol. 4” Jacob Collier
“Hit Me Hard and Soft” Billie Eilish
“The Rise And Fall Of A Midwest Princess” Chappell Roan
“The Tortured Poets Department” Taylor Swift
Who will win: “Cowboy Carter” Beyoncé
Who should win: “Cowboy Carter” Beyoncé
Though there is no denying the epic scope of Swift’s “Tortured Poets …” ? and a win would make her the first artist to win five album of the year Grammys – this is finally Beyoncé’s year for a distinction she has coveted and more than just Adele thinks she’s deserved. Will a Bey triumph for her eighth studio album suggest amends for “Lemonade” and “Renaissance” falling into “it was an honor just to be nominated” territory? Possibly. But it should signal merited victory for bulldozing country music conventions, shrewdly showcasing both heroes (Dolly Parton, Linda Martell) and newcomers (Tanner Adell, Tiera Kennedy among them) of the genre and, through oft-profound lyrics, exposing Beyoncé’s vulnerabilities as a mother, daughter and wife.
Who will win song of the year (goes to songwriter)?
“A Bar Song (Tipsy)” Shaboozey. Written by Sean Cook, Jerrel Jones, Joe Kent, Chibueze Collins Obinna, Nevin Sastry and Mark Williams
“Birds of a Feather” Billie Eilish. Written by Billie Eilish O'Connell and FINNEAS
“Die With A Smile” Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars. Written by Dernst Emile II, James Fauntleroy, Lady Gaga, Bruno Mars and Andrew Watt
“Fortnight” Taylor Swift featuring Post Malone. Written by Jack Antonoff, Austin Post and Taylor Swift
“Good Luck, Babe!” Chappell Roan. Written by Kayleigh Rose Amstutz, Daniel Nigro & Justin Tranter
“Not Like Us” Kendrick Lamar. Written by Kendrick Lamar
“Please Please Please” Sabrina Carpenter. Written by Amy Allen, Jack Antonoff and Sabrina Carpenter
“Texas Hold ‘Em” Beyoncé. Written by Brian Bates, Beyoncé, Elizabeth Lowell Boland, Megan Bülow, Nate Ferraro and Raphael Saadiq
Who will win: “Die With A Smile” Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars
Who should win: “Not Like Us,” Kendrick Lamar
Though it's easily the most challenging category to dissect this year, the songwriting honor should be a layup for Lamar. He alone wrote the brash, encyclopedic mic drop in his feud with Drake and the song’s ceaseless popularity (it surpassed 1 billion Spotify streams this month) shouldn’t be overlooked.
But even with his pending Super Bowl halftime appearance and seven nominations to complement his 17 Grammy Awards, Lamar still feels like an outsider to the general awards (as opposed to the rap and R&B categories he has won). Voters might edge out his audacious proclamations to instead award two titans, Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars, whose semi-retro duet is another well-crafted megahit that sits just far enough outside the conglomerate of Swift, Beyoncé, Eilish and Carpenter to seal a win.
Who will win best new artist?
Who will win: Sabrina Carpenter
Who should win: Chappell Roan
This year’s category is, as usual, stacked with some questionable math on the definition of a new artist. Grammy rules list many provisos including making a major impact, first recording that established the artist’s public identity and so on. Those loopholes are especially relevant this year because the frontrunner, Carpenter, has worked in the industry for more than a decade and released her debut, “Eyes Wide Open,” in 2014, around the same time she starred in the Disney Channel’s “Girl Meets World.” But her graduation from teen pop personality to coy sexpot commenced with the arrival of “Espresso” last spring and suddenly, a major chart-topping star was born.
Roan’s path has followed a similar decade-ish zigzag of detours until she achieved moderate success and rampant adulation in the queer community with 2020’s “Pink Pony Club.” But 2024 was the year her delectable ‘80s-tinged pop graduated from the clubs to overflowing festival crowds.
Still, Carpenter dominated the mainstream and her visibility will be rewarded.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Grammy predictions wins for Beyoncé, Sabrina Carpenter
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