Best Actor expert slugfest: ‘It’s a two-horse race’ at the Oscars for Adrien Brody and Timothée Chalamet
Five leading men made the cut for Best Actor at the 2025 Oscars: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), and Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice). But who will score the statuette come March 2?
After the nominations were announced, five top Oscar experts from major media outlets debated their winner predictions for Best Actor: Gold Derby’s Debra Birnbaum, Variety‘s Clayton Davis, The Hollywood Reporter‘s Scott Feinberg, Deadline’s Pete Hammond, and Indiewire’s Anne Thompson. Watch their full Oscars roundtable above.
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“I am really torn here,” says Feinberg. “Obviously we’ve seen already at the Globes appreciation for Adrien Brody, and well-deserved. He certainly bit off the most to have to chew of any of these guys. Three-and-a-half hours where he’s basically in every moment, over years and years of this guy’s life. It’s amazing.” However, he wonders if “this AI stuff” for The Brutalist might “linger” with voters and “tip” the race toward Chalamet.
“I feel like it’s a two-horse race between Timmy and Adrien,” says Davis. “This is kind of like the Austin Butler versus Brendan Fraser year again,” where Fraser pulled out a victory for The Whale (2022) over his younger Elvis counterpart. “I think we’re going to end up in a split dynamic again where Timmy wins CCA [Critics Choice Award] and SAG [Screen Actors Guild], and Brody wins Golden Globe and BAFTA, and then we’re going to flip a coin on the night.”
Thompson believes Brody will prevail and compares this situation to Lincoln (2012). “Daniel Day-Lewis won because he carried the movie,” she says. “The movie wouldn’t exist without him. And I think that this is also true of The Brutalist.” But what about Chalamet’s performance as Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown? “Chalamet is 29. I’m arguing that he has plenty of opportunities ahead of him, and that’s why it may not be him.”
“Here is who I really want to see on that stage,” Hammond begins. “‘And the Oscar goes to: Sebastian Stan as Donald Trump!’ I cannot wait for that moment. I know the Oscars do not want to see this, because this will set off a firestorm. But that will be a moment that the Oscars are made for. That’s not going to happen, but it should.” He readily admits that “this is the hardest category to safely predict,” and he needs “some more evidence along the way of momentum” before finalizing his pick.
Birnbaum wonders if The Brutalist‘s AI issue is a “tempest in a teapot,” and the other pundits agree that it may not be a factor because Oscar voters know a good performance when they see one. “It’s just those two letters together,” she says, which feel quite blasphemous to some people on Film Twitter.
Which Oscar expert do you agree with the most? Sound off down in the comments section and join the discussion in our movie forums.
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