BAFTA Nominations Predictions: ‘Conclave’ and ‘Emilia Pérez’ Expected to Lead; ‘Challengers’ and Mark Edelshteyn Could Surprise
The British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) will announce its nominations on Wednesday, Jan. 15, casting a spotlight on an unpredictable awards season. This year’s nods come amid a somber backdrop as the devastating wildfires in Los Angeles have left communities grappling with loss. I’m sure the BAFTA’s announcement will mention the City of Angels and the first responders, the true heroes battling the blazes.
For the approximately 13,500 international members of BAFTA — representing a diverse range of disciplines across film and television — this year’s nominations serve as a cultural barometer, often influencing the Oscar race. With ballots for the Academy Awards due on Friday, Jan. 17, following its announced voting extension, BAFTA (who voted before the wildfires broke out) may provide a clearer picture of where AMPAS’ influential international voting bloc will likely land.
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BAFTA’s acting categories have been somewhat unpredictable in recent years due to a jury system that decided half of the nominees. Thankfully, that system has been scrapped. Now, the top six highest vote-getters earn a nomination, signaling a return to a more straightforward — and potentially Oscar-reflective— process.
So, what can we expect from the nominations this year?
If you’ve been following Variety’s Awards Circuit predictions, one thing has been clear: this is the year without a frontrunner. Five films have emerged as viable contenders for the Oscars’ best picture prize: “Anora,” “The Brutalist,” “Conclave,” “Emilia Pérez,” and “Wicked.”
However, recent guild nominations suggest a sixth title could crash the party: James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic “A Complete Unknown.” The film has gained considerable momentum following DGA and SAG noms, and BAFTA could take notice. With such a competitive field, surprises and snubs are inevitable — and in a ranked-choice voting system, passion matters as much as general likability.
The previously announced longlists showed the Spanish-language musical “Emilia Pérez” garnering the most mentions with 15, followed by the religious thriller “Conclave” with 14. We are projecting the two dramas to co-lead the day, racking up 10 noms apiece.
“Conclave,” directed by Edward Berger, is anticipated to score nods in major categories, including best film, best director, lead actor for Ralph Fiennes, and supporting actress for Isabella Rossellini. The film’s gripping narrative and meticulous craftsmanship seem tailor-made for BAFTA recognition, especially since Berger’s last movie, “All Quiet on the Western Front,” tied for the most BAFTA noms in history, winning seven, including best film and directing.
Meanwhile, Jacques Audiard’s “Emilia Pérez” has generated significant attention after its Golden Globe wins. Still, a nod for best film may not be guaranteed despite its likely haul, which should include stars Karla Sofía Gascón and Zoe Salda?a. If the film misses the cut, it will echo a rare historical precedent: Peter Webber’s 2003 period drama “The Girl with a Pearl Earring,” which holds the record for most BAFTA nominations but fails to secure a best film slot. With another musical, “Wicked,” also in the mix, vote-splitting among the musicals could leave the door open for Denis Villeneuve’s sci-fi epic “Dune: Part Two” to slide into the best film category. The sequel is expected to earn at least seven nominations, including best director.
Elsewhere, “Anora,” “The Brutalist,” and “Wicked” are poised for strong showings with eight nominations each. However, even these favorites aren’t immune to potential snubs in specific categories.
For instance, Sean Baker’s “Anora” may miss out on a cinematography nomination but could pick up an additional supporting actor nod for Mark Edelshteyn, joining his co-star Yura Borisov. Brady Corbet’s “The Brutalist” could give Felicity Jones a needed shot in the arm for supporting actress. However, the film is predicted to be omitted from original screenplay, in favor of Luca Guadagnino’s romantic sports drama “Challengers” (which has been picking up steam in the past few weeks, both domestically and abroad).
“Wicked,” on the other hand, seems destined to secure acting noms for its stars Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande. However, the film, which has performed better domestically than internationally regarding awards traction, may struggle to land in adapted screenplay, and its BAFTA best film prospects are notably on the fringe. Despite these uncertainties, “Wicked” should still not be counted out of any race.
BAFTA has already named its nominees for its Rising Star Award, which includes Marisa Abela (“Back to Black”), Jharrel Jerome (“Unstoppable”), David Jonsson (“Alien: Romulus”), Mikey Madison (“Anora”) and Nabhaan Rizwan (“In Camera”).
Read Variety’s final predictions below. The BAFTAs are set to take place on Sunday, Feb. 16.
See all Academy Award predictions
Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars
Best Film
“Anora”
“The Brutalist”
“A Complete Unknown”
“Conclave”
“Wicked”
Alternate: “Emilia Pérez”
Outstanding British Film
“Bird”
“Blitz”
“Civil War”
“Conclave”
“Gladiator II”
“Hard Truths”
“Kneecap”
“Love Lies Bleeding”
“The Outrun”
“Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl”
Alternate: “Paddington in Peru”
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer
“Bring Them Down”
“Hoard”
“Kneecap”
“Santosh”
“The Teacher”
Alternate: “Monkey Man”
Children’s and Family Film
“Flow”
“That Christmas”
“Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl”
“The Wild Robot”
Alternate: “Young Woman and the Sea”
Film Not in English Language
“All We Imagine as Light”
“Emilia Pérez”
“I’m Still Here” (“Ainda Estou Aqui”)
“Kneecap”
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig”
Alternate: “The Girl with the Needle”
Documentary
“The Bibi Files”
“Black Box Diaries”
“No Other Land”
“The Remarkable Life of Ibelin”
“Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story”
Alternate: “Daughters”
Animated Film
“Flow”
“Inside Out 2”
“Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl”
“The Wild Robot”
Alternate: “That Christmas”
Director
Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Pérez”
Sean Baker, “Anora”
Edward Berger, “Conclave”
Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”
Payal Kapadia, “All We Imagine as Light”
Denis Villeneuve, “Dune: Part Two”
Alternate: Coralie Fargeat, “The Substance”
Original Screenplay
“All We Imagine as Light” – Payal Kapadia
“Anora” – Sean Baker
“Challengers” – Justin Kuritzkes
“A Real Pain” – Jesse Eisenberg
“The Substance” – Coralie Fargeat
Alternate: “The Brutalist”
Adapted Screenplay
“A Complete Unknown” – Jay Cocks, James Mangold
“Conclave” – Peter Straughan
“Emilia Pérez” – Jacques Audiard
“Nickel Boys” – RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes
“The Outrun” – Amy Liptrot, Nora Fingscheidt, Daisy Lewis
Alternate: “Wicked”
Leading Actress
Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked”
Demi Moore, “The Substance”
Karla Sofía Gascón, “Emilia Pérez”
Marianne Jean-Baptiste, “Hard Truths”
Nicole Kidman, “Babygirl”
Mikey Madison, “Anora”
Alternate: Saoirse Ronan, “The Outrun”
Leading Actor
Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”
Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing”
Daniel Craig, “Queer”
Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave”
Sebastian Stan, “The Apprentice”
Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”
Alternate: Hugh Grant, “Heretic”
Supporting Actress
Michele Austin, “Hard Truths”
Jamie Lee Curtis, “The Last Showgirl”
Ariana Grande, “Wicked”
Felicity Jones, “The Brutalist”
Isabella Rossellini, “Conclave”
Zoe Salda?a, “Emilia Pérez”
Alternate: Margaret Qualley, “The Substance”
Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov, “Anora”
Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Mark Edelshteyn, “Anora”
Edward Norton, “A Complete Unknown”
Guy Pearce, “The Brutalist”
Jeremy Strong, “The Apprentice”
Alternate: Stanley Tucci, “Conclave”
Casting
“Anora”
“The Apprentice”
“Blitz”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Kneecap”
Alternate: “Conclave”
Cinematography
“The Brutalist”
“Conclave”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Nosferatu”
Alternate: “Civil War”
Costume Design
“Beetlejuice Beetlejuice”
“A Complete Unknown”
“Conclave”
“Nosferatu”
“Wicked”
Alternate: “Gladiator II”
Editing
“Anora”
“Challengers”
“Conclave”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Emilia Pérez”
Alternate: “A Complete Unknown”
Make-Up and Hair
“Dune: Part Two”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Nosferatu”
“The Substance”
“Wicked”
Alternate: “The Apprentice”
Original Score
“Blitz”
“The Brutalist”
“Conclave”
“Emilia Pérez”
“The Wild Robot”
Alternate: “Nosferatu”
Production Design
“Blitz”
“The Brutalist”
“A Complete Unknown”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Wicked”
Alternate: “Conclave”
Special Visual Effects
“Alien: Romulus”
“Better Man”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes”
“Wicked”
Alternate: “Deadpool & Wolverine”
Sound
“Blitz”
“Civil War”
“A Complete Unknown”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Wicked”
Alternate: “Emilia Pérez”
British Short Animation
“Adiós”
“Plunge”
“Wander to Wonder”
Alternate: “Three Hares”
British Short Film
“The Ban”
“Clodagh”
“Rock, Paper, Scissors”
“Sister Wives”
“Stomach Bug”
Alternate: “Homework”
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