The BAFTA Awards races that could have a significant impact on the Oscars — including Best Actress
Sometimes, the British Film Academy paves the road to the Oscars. Sometimes, it doesn’t. Last year, the BAFTA Awards crowned the eventual Oscar winners in the top eight categories, with wins for Oppenheimer, Cillian Murphy, Emma Stone, Robert Downey Jr., and Da’Vine Joy Randolph and screenplay victories for American Fiction and Anatomy of a Fall. However, BAFTA and the Oscars split on all eight above-the-line categories two years ago. British voters embraced All Quiet on the Western Front that year over the eventual Oscars juggernaut, Everything Everywhere All at Once.
The expectation at the moment — mainly because the race was so crowded before Anora won at the Producers Guild Awards and Directors Guild Awards — is that this year might offer something in the middle. Ahead are three key BAFTA Awards categories whose results might significantly impact the Oscars.
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Best Actress: Demi Moore vs. Mikey Madison
Before Anora reasserted itself as the frontrunner in the Best Picture race, few likely imagined a scenario where Demi Moore might lose Best Actress at the Oscars. The Substance star, whose comeback narrative is foundational to her campaign, grabbed this category by the proverbial collar during this year’s Golden Globes ceremony, winning against four fellow future Oscar nominees — including Anora star Mikey Madison. However, if there is one last twist in the Best Actress race, it will likely have to start with a Madison victory at the BAFTA Awards on Sunday. Thus far, Moore’s wins over Madison have come at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards, which are key precursors but not industry groups. The BAFTA Awards then serve as an essential litmus test: If Anora is the industry favorite of the season, as it now appears to be, will BAFTA voters rally around its star, or does Moore continue to thrive? Recent history suggests the BAFTA Awards have a keen eye for sussing out when a presumed “narrative” frontrunner has some potential weakness. Last year, when most thought Lily Gladstone might win Best Actress for Killers of the Flower Moon, the BAFTA Awards snubbed her entirely and selected Stone as the winner for Poor Things. In 2021, when Chadwick Boseman was a top choice for Best Actor, the BAFTA Awards went with Anthony Hopkins, who later won at the Oscars in an upset over the late Ma Rainey star. In 2019, as the world thought Glenn Close might win her first Oscar for The Wife, the BAFTA Awards chose The Favourite star Olivia Colman, an eventual surprise Oscar winner. In all those cases, it’s arguable that the person with the best narrative lost and the star with the most beloved film and performance won. If Madison wins on Sunday, the strength of Anora as a whole might be to her advantage.
Unless, of course, Madison is Austin Butler and Cate Blanchett. In 2023, Butler won the BAFTA Award over future Best Actor winner Brendan Fraser, while Blanchett toppled eventual Best Actress victor Michelle Yeoh. However, Fraser and Yeoh had the stronger movies, which perhaps tilts the advantage back in Madison’s corner if she wins at BAFTA.
Best Original Screenplay: Anora vs. The Substance
When both Anora and The Substance premiered at last year’s Cannes Film Festival, the Greta Gerwig-led jury awarded Baker’s film with the Palme d’Or but chose to single out Coralie Fargeat’s body-horror satire for best screenplay, and while competition films at Cannes can only win one award, it does feels like a replay might be possible at the Oscars. The Academy has often used the Best Original Screenplay category to reward a movie with the most original concept — think past winners like Everything Everywhere All at Once, Promising Young Woman, Parasite, Get Out, and Her. If Fargeat were to win for The Substance, the outcome would fit comfortably into that history. The wrinkle is that BAFTA is an ineloquent guide in this category with which to predict future Oscar success. In the last 10 years, only five times have BAFTA and the Oscars matched on Best Original Screenplay, so even if The Substance prevails, it still might not top Anora with the Academy.
Best Actor: Adrien Brody vs. Ralph Fiennes
Much like Moore, Brody has been far out in front for his performance in The Brutalist for months. Like Moore, the former Oscar winner has also won non-industry prizes from the Golden Globe Awards and Critics Choice Awards. With nine BAFTA nominations, The Brutalist is one of the most celebrated films at this year’s ceremony. So itt would count as a surprise if the actor didn’t win on Sunday, and if he were to lose, most expect Timothée Chalamet to be his top competition. But what if the alternate in this category has been Fiennes all along? Conclave is the nominations leader with 12 BAFTA bids, including Best Film. Based on how director Edward Berger’s All Quiet on the Western Front performed with the group two years ago against an overwhelming frontrunner like Everything Everywhere All at Once, it’s clear British Film Academy members appreciate his filmmaking prowess more than their Academy brethren. (Berger has somewhat infamously been snubbed twice in the last three years for Best Director while guiding his films to 17 nominations, including two Best Picture bids in that time.) Fiennes has earned seven BAFTA nominations in his career, with a win for Schindler’s List. If he can pull off the BAFTA upset over Brody on the back of the support for Conclave and his status as a legendary British star, it feels his Oscar chances will grow only more substantial.
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