Will Bad Bunny’s New Album Climb to No. 1 – Or Will an Old Taylor Swift Live Set Fly In on Top?
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 albums chart dated Jan. 25, 2025, we look at whether a new growing blockbuster from Bad Bunny will claim the top spot, or whether it will be lapped by the shipment of a beloved Taylor Swift live set.
Bad Bunny, Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Rimas): The latest LP from Puerto Rican global superstar Bad Bunny might have already been the No. 1 album in the country had it enjoyed a full tracking week. But due to its Sunday release (Jan. 5), two days into tracking, it pulled up just short, posting 122,000 first-week units and falling behind Lil Baby’s WHAM set, which bowed at No. 1 with 140,000 units.
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The good news for Fotos is that it keeps growing. While the album’s first-day numbers on streaming were solid but unexceptional, they’ve ballooned nearly every day since – an extremely unusual trajectory for a new release by an established superstar – to the point where the album now claims the top three spots on both the Apple Music real-time chart and the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA listing. (Both rankings are led by the viral smash “DtMF,” which could also challenge for a top spot on the Billboard Hot 100 next week.)
The runaway streaming success of Fotos, combined with it now getting the benefits of a full week of tracking (as well as a heavy week of promo, including a recent Subway Busking performance with Jimmy Fallon) means that the set should have an even better showing in its second frame – perhaps more in line with the opening week of Bunny’s previous album, 2023’s Nadie Sabie Lo Que Va a Pasar Ma?ana, which managed 184,000 units in its Billboard 200-topping debut week.
Taylor Swift, Lover (Live in Paris) (Republic): The City of Lover live show that Taylor Swift played in Paris in 2019 has long held a special place in the hearts of Swifties – both for its intimate acoustic versions of many highlights from 2019’s Lover set, and for the fact that it was one of the final full live shows Swift performed for some years, after her planned Lover Fest mini-tour was canceled in the wake of the 2020 COVID pandemic and she was forced to regroup for 2023-24’s world-conquering Eras Tour. In 2020, the set was aired as an ABC live special, followed by the limited-edition release a double-LP version of the set in 2023, entitled Lover (Live From Paris), collecting eight performances from the gig.
That release was limited to 13,000 copies, and of course sold out, resulting in a No. 58 bow on the Billboard 200. The set was re-released this Jan. 7, however, as a 72-hour webstore exclusive, and is expected to sell a whole lot more than that this time around. The impact it has on this upcoming Billboard 200 will depend on when the copies of it officially ship – her webstore noted that all copies would ship “on or before Jan. 20,” but with many Swifties apparently having already received their copies, it seems likely to be a real contender for next week.
Could it beat out Bad Bunny’s burgeoning blockbuster? Despite her 14 career No. 1s on the Billboard 200, Swift has never reached the apex with a live set – with 2020’s No. 3-peaking Folklore: The Long Pond Studio Sessions coming closest. But with the combination of the set’s reputation among Swifties, those fans’ love for collecting her records (with Taylor claiming five of the top 10 best-selling vinyl LPs of 2024) the half-decade wait since the special initially aired and how she’s gotten exponentially bigger in the last few years… as with nearly everything Taylor Swift-related in 2025, it’s probably not a great idea to bet against her.
Lil Baby, WHAM (Quality Control/Motown): Last week’s No. 1 seems pretty sure for some degree of fall-off in its second frame. Its opening number of 140,000 got a big lift from direct-to-consumer album sales (in CD and digital download form), helping it get 50,000 of those first-week units, which is almost always much lower in an album’s second week. And on streaming, Lil Baby‘s set is clearly slipping – it’s still littering the Apple Music chart, but with only one song (the Future- and Young Thug-featuring “Dum, Dumb and Dumber”) in the top 20, and it claims just two total entries in Spotify’s 200-position Daily Top Songs USA chart. That’s not shocking by any means – most big streaming albums do experience a big drop-off in week two – but it just shows how remarkable it is that Fotos is still expanding like it is. (WHAM should still get a small boost on streaming from the Friday release of its deluxe edition – featuring four bonus tracks – to DSPs, having previously been available only for purchase as part of the deluxe on the Motown webstore.)
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