Alicia Keys’ ‘Hell’s Kitchen’ faces a Sondheim steamroller in Grammys race for Best Musical Theater Album
Going into this year’s Grammys, each of the six nominees for Best Musical Theater Album has its own distinct advantages, from involvement of previous nominees/winners to encouraging statistics. So let’s consider the possibilities.
The frontrunner to win based on the official Gold Derby odds is Hell’s Kitchen. It’s a jukebox musical mining the song catalog of Alicia Keys, who also wrote a few original tunes for the show. Jukebox musicals in general tend to be catnip for voters in this category as they contain material voters are familiar with. Previous champs include Jersey Boys, which used the songs of Frankie Valli and the Four Seasons; American Idiot, an adaptation of Green Day‘s eponymous 2004 concept album; Beautiful: The Carole King Musical, which featured Carole King‘s song catalog; and Jagged Little Pill, an adaptation of Alanis Morissette‘s 1995 album.
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Keys has plenty of bona fides. She is a producer on the Hell’s Kitchen album, she’s already a 16-time Grammy winner, and she is set to be one of this year’s recipients of the Global Impact Award. That puts Hell’s Kitchen in a strong position to win. Other producers on the album are Adam Blackstone, who has been nominated three times before, and Tom Kitt, a previous winner in this category for Jagged Little Pill. Principal soloists are reigning Tony champs Maleah Joi Moon and Kecia Lewis as well as Shoshana Bean, a previous nominee for Mr. Saturday Night, and Brandon Victor Dixon, who has been nominated twice before for Motown: The Musical and Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert.
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Second place in the odds is Merrily We Roll Along, last year’s Tony winner for Best Musical Revival. The original Broadway cast recording was nominated in 1983, but lost to Dreamgirls. Throughout history, 11 cast albums of Stephen Sondheim musicals have won this award: Gypsy in 1960 (in a tie with Redhead), Company in 1971, A Little Night Music in 1974, Sweeney Todd in 1980, Sunday in the Park with George in 1985, West Side Story in 1986, Follies in Concert in 1987, Into the Woods in 1989, Passion in 1995, another Gypsy production in 2004, West Side Story again in 2010, and Into the Woods again in 2023.
One of the producers on the album is David Caddick, who has won this category twice before. Principal soloists are Tony winners Jonathan Groff, a previous Grammy victor for Hamilton, and Daniel Radcliffe, a previous nominee for How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying, as well as Lindsay Mendez, a previous nominee for Carousel. However, in the past decade only one Tony winner for Best Revival has prevailed at the Grammys: The Color Purple in 2017.
In third place is The Outsiders. One of its producers is Lawrence Manchester, a previous winner for Best Comedy Album for Jimmy Fallon‘s Blow Your Pants Off back in 2013. The Outsiders won the Tony for Best Musical in a major upset, and so far this century 13 shows that did so also prevailed here: The Producers in 2002, Hairspray in 2003, Spamalot in 2006, Jersey Boys in 2007, Spring Awakening in 2008, In the Heights in 2009, The Book of Mormon in 2012, Once in 2013, Kinky Boots in 2014, Hamilton in 2016, Dear Evan Hansen in 2018, The Band’s Visit in 2019, and Hadestown in 2020. So we probably shouldn’t underestimate The Outsiders here.
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In fourth is Suffs, the reigning Tony champ for Best Score. So far this century 11 shows that won that honor also prevailed here: Aida in 2001, The Producers, Hairspray, Spring Awakening, In the Heights, The Book of Mormon, Kinky Boots, Hamilton, Dear Evan Hansen, The Band’s Visit, and Hadestown. On of the producers on the album is Dean Sharenow, a previous winner for the aforementioned Band’s Visit. Interestingly, of those Best Score Tony winners that also won the Grammy, only one of them didn’t win the Tony for Best Musical, Aida, so Suffs may be at a historical disadvantage.
The underdog is The Wiz. The original Broadway cast recording won this award back in 1976. Principal soloists are Wayne Brady, a previous nominee for Best Traditional R&B Performance for “A Change is Gonna Come” in 2009, and Deborah Cox, a veteran recording artist who’s on her very first nomination. One of the producers of the album is the aforementioned Lawrence Manchester.
Finally with 17/2 odds is The Notebook. It has a score by veteran singer-songwriter Ingrid Michaelson, who’s also a producer of the album. Other producers include John Clancy, who was nominated just last year for Kimberly Akimbo, Kurt Deutsch, a previous winner for In the Heights, and Derik Lee, who has won this category three times for Kinky Boots, Hamilton, and Dear Evan Hansen, so this show certainly has the pedigree of a winner. But it wasn’t even nominated for Best Score or Best Musical at the Tonys, so it would be quite an upset if it prevails here.
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