Oscars expectations vs. reality: Which theories were right and which were proven wrong
Call it Chekhov’s editing win. When Anora filmmaker Sean Baker beat Conclave editor Nick Emerson at the Oscars on Sunday night, it all but confirmed the night’s final result would be Anora crowned as Best Picture. That’s because Baker’s upset win in the category ahead of Conclave — the favorite in the odds and the presumed alternate pick to Anora in the Best Picture race — exploded the Edward Berger film's potential win package. Most pundits agreed that Conclave could win Best Picture with Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Editing, just like Argo did in 2013. But without the editing win, Conclave would’ve had to be Spotlight and won Best Picture with just a screenplay Oscar. Well, Conclave was never as strong as Spotlight throughout the season (and Spotlight didn’t have to face off against an industry juggernaut like Anora). So, Baker’s editing triumph was the ballgame.
This is a knotty way of saying that this year’s Oscars race proved many pundit theories were right and some were very wrong. Ahead, let’s parse the best and worst of the awards season theories with the hindsight of the 2025 Oscar results
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Reality: The historical stats matter for a reason
On Feb. 8, when Baker won Best Director at the Directors Guild Awards, and about an hour later, Anora took top honors at the Producers Guild Awards, it set the Neon release on a nearly unbeatable path to winning Best Picture. In the 35 years since the first-ever Producers Guild Awards crowned Driving Miss Daisy with the guild’s Best Picture prize, 25 movies, including Anora, have won solo awards from the Producers Guild and Directors Guild in the same season. Twenty of those movies (80 percent) have won Best Picture. (Gravity tied with 12 Years a Slave at the PGA Awards, while Gravity director Alfonso Cuarón won at the Directors Guild Awards; 12 Years a Slave won Best Picture.) Conversely, Conclave came into the Oscars with wins from the more unreliable precursors: the BAFTA Awards and the Screen Actors Guild Awards. Since 1990, the BAFTA Award for Best Film has matched the Oscars Best Picture winner just 14 times (40 percent). Since the SAG Awards first-ever Best Ensemble prize in 1996, the actors’ guild has lined up with Best Picture just 15 times (50 percent).
Expectation: For actors, narratives matter more than their films
Heading into Sunday night, more than 65 percent of experts on Gold Derby predicted Demi Moore would win Best Actress for The Substance. Anecdotally, the main argument from that group for Moore emerging victoriously — beyond her non-industry precursor wins at the Golden Globe Awards and Critics Choice Awards and her essential victory at the Screen Actors Guild Awards – was Moore’s narrative. The speech Moore gave after her unexpected win at the Golden Globes over Mikey Madison (more on her in a second) positioned the Brat Pack star-turned-‘90s icon into the year’s best comeback story, and it was easy to imagine a world where Moore joined fellow comeback star Brendan Fraser in the Oscars history book. Besides, the thinking likely went that Madison would have other chances to win at 25 (turning 26 in a few weeks). Yet, in the end, Academy voters chose Madison as the Best Actress winner. How come?
Sharp observers no doubt clocked before the ceremony, and as anyone who watched the Oscars on Sunday now realizes, Anora was the Academy’s favorite movie of the year, and Madison played the film’s title character. In hindsight, suggesting that Madison might have lost almost seems comical. Performances aside — and it must be noted that acting is subjective and all the nominated performances have obvious merit regardless of the eventual outcome — it has become apparent over the last several years that, in a close race, the strength of the movie matters more than the narrative of the contender. Consider these results from the previous 30 years:
At the 1997 Oscars, presumed Best Supporting Actress frontrunner and Hollywood legend Lauren Bacall (The Mirror Has Two Faces) lost to Juliette Binoche (The English Patient). The English Patient won nine Oscars, including Best Picture; The Mirror Has Two Faces won zero Oscars out of two nominations.
At the 2009 Oscars, The Wrestler star and comeback story Mickey Rourke lost Best Actor to Milk star Sean Penn. The Wrestler received two Oscar nominations; Milk landed eight, including Best Picture, and also won Best Original Screenplay.
At the 2019 Oscars, The Wife star Glenn Close, then a seven-time nominee, lost Best Actress to The Favourite lead Olivia Colman. Close was the lone nominee for the little-seen The Wife; Colman’s film received 10 nominations, including Best Picture.
At the 2021 Oscars, the late Chadwick Boseman was so widely expected to win Best Actor for his performance in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom that Oscar producers put the category last in the show’s rundown. However, instead of an emotional moment in tribute of the Black Panther star, the Best Actor win went to Anthony Hopkins for The Father. While both movies won two Oscars during the ceremony, The Father had more nominations (six to five) and received a Best Picture bid.
At the 2023 Oscars, Tar star Cate Blanchett lost her bid for a third Oscar to Everything Everywhere All at Once lead Michelle Yeoh. Tár won zero Oscars; Everything Everywhere won seven, including Best Picture and two additional acting wins.
At the 2024 Oscars, SAG Awards winner and a potential historic Best Actress pick Lily Gladstone lost to Poor Things star Emma Stone. Gladstone’s film, Killers of the Flower Moon, received 10 nominations but didn’t win a single prize; Poor Things won three additional Oscars.
The final tally for Anora vs. The Substance? Five Oscars, including Best Picture, to one.
Reality: Passion tops admiration
While there are just under 10,000 voting members of the Academy, not every voter makes picks in every category; as seen in anonymous ballots that have been published over the last few weeks and in the previous several years, voters often abstain from making selections in the short-film categories and even some of the feature categories, such as Best Animated Feature and Documentary. So, with a potentially smaller field of voters making selections in those categories, the passionate upstart can often trump the “bigger” contender. This year, for instance, Flow defeated The Wild Robot in Best Animated Feature mainly on the back of passion from the film’s fans, including directors like Wes Anderson and Benny Safdie. Similarly, I’m Still Here came from behind and bested Emilia Pérez in Best International Feature, an outcome that some might chalk up to the Karla Sofía Gascón controversy but likely also had to do with the intense passion for the Walter Salles film in contrast to the apparent admiration for Emilia Pérez.
Expectation: Voters still love to spread the wealth
Many pundits, including yours truly, love to imagine that Oscar voters want to spread the wealth to the many deserving nominees up for Academy Awards each year. It’s a nice dream, however recent history suggests that’s all it might be: In the last three years, the Best Picture winner has received seven, seven, and five Oscars. That’s a significant shift from where things were even five years ago, and suggests that Oscar voters, like their Emmy Award brethren, have shown no issue in checking off their favorite movie down the ballot. Something to keep in mind for next year.
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