2025 Oscars slugfest: Experts predict Best Picture nominees in this year’s ‘wide open race’
Ten movies will make the cut for Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars. As awards season kicks into high gear, which films are locks for a nomination? And which ones could be on the bubble?
Five top Oscar experts from major media outlets wrapped up their first session of slugfests with their Best Picture predictions: Gold Derby’s Debra Birnbaum, Deadline’s Pete Hammond, Variety’s Clayton Davis, The Hollywood Reporter’s Scott Feinberg, and Indiewire’s Anne Thompson. Watch their 2025 Oscars slugfest video above.
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Hammond starts the debate by declaring that “Conclave,” “Anora,” and “Wicked” are safe bets. “There’s a few small movies here and there that have a good shot, but they have to be seen,” he says.
Birnbaum points out, “Unlike last year, where we had some very clear frontrunners, I feel like this year we’ve got some films that are in the top three, four, or five.The rest of it’s a wide open race.”
Thompson says “Emilia Pérez” is also “up at the top,” and Hammond agrees, stating, “Academy people I talk to really like it. I did the Academy screening of that, and even though it wasn’t big numbers, like 300 maybe, which is pretty big for Academy screenings now if you’re not ‘Wicked’ or ‘Gladiator II,’ it was really enthusiastic. There may still be the crowd out there that will never vote for Netflix for a Best Picture, that was always a problem.”
Another film on the experts’ radar is Tim Fehlbaum‘s “September 5.” “I showed that the other night at my screening series and it went through the roof,” reveals Hammond. Feinberg adds, “Whenever people see it, they really respond to it. The question is how effective is Paramount going to be at getting people to see it? They have a higher profile contender with ‘Gladiator II,’ and ‘September 5’ was sort of a late priority of theirs. All the people [online] who haven’t yet seen it have been crapping on the idea. This is a classic down-the-middle Academy movie like ‘Spotlight’ or ‘Argo.’ I’m not arguing that it’s going to be number one, but the five locks to me are ‘Anora,’ ‘The Brutalist,’ ‘Conclave,’ ‘Emilia Perez,’ and ‘Wicked.’ And ‘September 5,’ if it is seen, will be right up there with them.”
Thompson declares she has a “sleeper” pick and encourages pundits to watch out for “A Real Pain.” “Searchlight is pushing this hard,” she explains. “It’s Jesse Eisenberg, writer-director, and of course, Kieran Culkin, a frontrunner for Supporting Actor. This is a very moving, funny, and sharp movie that I think people are really responding to.”
Feinberg adds that “Sing Sing” is also beloved, particularly by the acting branch of the Academy. “It did not make a lot of money, it came out early, but people are slowly but surely catching up,” he says. “That to me is like ‘CODA.’ The harder thing is to get nominated. That is the kind of movie that could win if it gets nominated. I think ‘Sing Sing’ will get a Best Ensemble SAG Award nomination, which will help to elevate it. Then, with 10 slots, I think it’s getting in.”
Davis calls this “the year without a frontrunner,” but thinks seven films are locked in for a nomination: “Anora,” “Conclave,” “The Brutalist,” “Gladiator II,” “Wicked,” “Emilia Perez,” and “Dune Part Two.” The films he has on the bubble include “A Real Pain” and “A Complete Unknown.” “I’ve been calling this ‘the strike year,'” Davis says. “Less movies are in the conversation. ‘Sing Sing,’ on paper, should be in there. Whatever is the most watched is usually what gets in, not necessarily the best.” He adds that watching “The Brutalist” at home is a great disservice to the film, and questions if Academy members will actually get out to a theater to see it.
“Once they see it, they’ll see what an extraordinary cinematic achievement it is,” Thompson says of “The Brutalist.” She also tells Davis, “‘Gladiator II’ doesn’t get in.”
So where does “The Substance” fit into this equation? “I think we are asking the Academy to do the coolest thing they’ve ever done, and they don’t do cool things,” says Davis. Thompson responds, “They did it with ‘Everything Everywhere All At Once,’ but that was not gross. This is gross-out horror.”
Also in the conversation are “Blitz,” “The Room Next Door,” “I’m Still Here,” “The Seed of the Sacred Fig,” “All We Imagine as Light,” “Inside Out 2,” and “The Wild Robot.”
What do YOU think will be nominated for Best Picture?
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