2025 Oscars Predictions in Every Category

Clayton Davis

September 5, 2024 at 4:49 AM·7 min read

Oscars Predictions 2025: ‘Emilia Pérez’ and ‘Saturday Night’ Surge After Telluride Bows; Daniel Craig and Angelina Jolie Enter the Race

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:

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2025 Oscars Predictions: All Categories

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2025 Oscars Predictions

Weekly Commentary (Updated Sept. 3, 2024): The Toronto International Film Festival kicks off this week, and we’ll get our first looks at hopefuls such as Marielle Heller’s “Nightbitch” with Amy Adams and John Crowley’s “We Live in Time” with Andrew Garfield and Florence Pugh. In addition, acquisition titles, such as Gia Coppola’s “The Last Showgirl” with Pamela Anderson, will see if they can factor into the race this year.

Some films that premiered at Venice and Telluride and garnered Oscar buzz will also make the trip to Canada, including Pedro Almodóvar’s “The Room Next Door,” Jason Reitman’s “Saturday Night,” Malcolm Washington’s “The Piano Lesson” and Walter Salles’ “I’m Still Here.”

Angelina Jolie has positioned herself as a Best Actress contender for her portrayal of famed opera singer Maria Callas in Pablo Larraín’s biopic “Maria” after bowing at Venice and Telluride. The Oscar-winning actress of “Girl, Interrupted” has positioned herself as one of the leading contenders, which could also include Saoirse Ronan (“The Outrun”), Karla Sofía Gascón (“Emilia Pérez”) and Mikey Madison (“Anora”).

In Venice, Daniel Craig is said to deliver a career-best performance in Luca Guadagnino‘s romantic drama “Queer,” playing a gay American expat in 1950s Mexico City. It swept up a packed theater at its world premiere on Tuesday night, earning a 9-minute standing ovation. The news comes after A24 picked it up for distribution in the U.S. The film will be shown at TIFF next week.

Read: You can see all Academy Award predictions in all 23 categories on one page on the Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars.

Check out the latest projections below and which films and studios lead the tally.

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.

Top 5 projected nomination leaders (films): “Emilia Pérez” (10); “A Complete Unknown,” “Gladiator II” and “Saturday Night” (9); “Dune: Part Two” (7); “Conclave” (6); “Anora” and “The Room Next Door” (5)

Top 3 projected nomination leaders (studios): Netflix (21), Searchlight Pictures (11), Paramount Pictures, and Warner Bros. (10)

*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees are listed in alphabetical order)

Best Picture

“Anora” (Neon)
Sean Baker, Alex Coco, Samantha Quan
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
Steve McQueen, Arnon Milchan, Yariv Milchan, Eric Fellner, Tim Bevan, Michael Schaefer
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Fred Berger, Alex Heineman, Bob Bookman, Peter Jaysen, Alan Gasmer, Jeff Rosen, Timothée Chalamet, James Mangold
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Alice Dawson, Robert Harris, Juliette Howell, Michael Jackman, Tessa Ross
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe, Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) ***
Jacques Audiard, Pascal Caucheteux, Valérie Schermann, Anthony Vacarello
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
Lucy Fisher, David Franzoni, Michael Pruss, Ridley Scott, Douglas Wick
“The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
Todd Black, Denzel Washington
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Agustín Almodóvar, Esther García
“Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
Jason Blumenfeld, Peter Rice, Jason Reitman, GIl Kenan

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Director

Jacques Audiard ***
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Sean Baker
“Anora” (Neon)
James Mangold
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Jason Reitman
“Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
Ridley Scott
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Actor

Timothée Chalamet
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Daniel Craig
“Queer” (A24)
Colman Domingo
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Ralph Fiennes ***
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Paul Mescal
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Actress

Angelina Jolie ***
“Maria” (Netflix)
Karla Sofía Gascón
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Marianne Jean-Baptiste
“Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street)
Mikey Madison
“Anora” (Neon)
Saoirse Ronan
“The Outrun” (Sony Pictures Classics)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Supporting Actor

Kieran Culkin
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
Gabriel LaBelle
“Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
Edward Norton
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Stanley Tucci
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Denzel Washington ***
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Supporting Actress

Monica Barbaro
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Danielle Deadwyler
“The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
Isabella Rossellini
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Zoe Salda?a ***
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Tilda Swinton
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Original Screenplay

“Anora” (Neon) ***
Sean Baker
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
Steve McQueen
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Jacques Audiard
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
Jesse Eisenberg
“Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
Gil Kenan, Jason Reitman

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Adapted Screenplay

“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Jay Cocks, James Mangold
“Conclave” (Focus Features) ***
Peter Straughan
“The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
Virgil Williams, Malcolm Washington
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Pedro Almodóvar
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Animated Feature

“Flow” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
Gints Zilbalodis, Matīss Ka?a, Ron Dyens, Gregory Zalcman
“Inside Out 2” (Pixar)
Kelsey Mann, Mark Nielsen
“Memoir of a Snail” (IFC Films)
Adam Elliot, Liz Kearney
“Piece by Piece” (Focus Features)
Morgan Neville, Caitrin Rogers, Pharrell Williams
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) ***
Chris Sanders, Jeff Hermann

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Production Design

“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
Adam Stockhausen, Anna Pinnock
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***
Patrice Vermette, Zsuzsanna Sipos
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
Arthur Max, Elli Griff
“Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
Mark Friedberg, Karen O’Hara
“Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
Jess Gonchor, Claudia Bonfe