2025 Grammys: The 4 hardest races to predict
When it comes to the grand slam of EGOT awards, the Grammys are always the most unpredictable. This year is no different, with several races too close to call. Here are the four toughest bets.
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Best Pop Vocal Album
You could make a case for each of the nominees here. Ariana Grande would seem to be the odd person out because her “Eternal Sunshine” is the only contender in this category that missed a nod for Album of the Year, but all the “Wicked” hype and its corresponding Oscar campaign could generate more buzz for Grande as an artist. Lady Gaga’s surprise Best Pop Solo Performance win in 2019 for “Joanne,” for example, happened during her big awards push for “A Star Is Born.”
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Then there’s Taylor Swift, whose “The Tortured Poets Department” was the bestselling album of the year. Swift just won the category earlier this year for “Midnights,” however, having just wrapped a $2 billion-grossing world tour, and with nominations across the board in the general field, her cultural dominance is significant enough that a lot of voters are probably still on a Swift high.
But this is a stacked category and even the reigning pop queen faces tough odds up against the formidable likes of Chappell Roan. Her “The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess” was this year’s most endearing success story, and Roan’s record has spawned several hits, including the viral “Hot to Go!” Debut albums tend to do well here, with previous wins by Sam Smith, Olivia Rodrigo, Duffy, and Billie Eilish, who prevailed for their first releases.
Speaking of Eilish, her “Hit Me Hard and Soft” was also one of the biggest albums of the year, and perhaps Eilish’s best, judging from the reviews. The huge critical support for the album, and its multiple hits this year (see: “Lunch,” “Birds of a Feather,” and “Wildflower”) could be enough to net her a second win in this category.
And last but not least, Sabrina Carpenter’s “Short n’ Sweet” is the definition of a pop bible with four major hits, and Carpenter’s narrative as a breakout after a decade on the sidelines is compelling. So in the end, it’s really a five-person race between five major eras for this year’s biggest pop ladies.
Gold Derby odds say: Billie Eilish will win.
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Best Compilation Soundtrack for Visual Media
Sometimes this category is locked up months in advance when there’s a huge awards juggernaut in the mix, like “La La Land” or “Slumdog Millionaire,” or a big hit on the charts like “A Star Is Born” or “Barbie.” This year, though, the competition is much less certain.
“The Color Purple” is a cinematic adaptation of a Tony- and Grammy-pedigreed Broadway musical with the late legend Quincy Jones as a producer, but the film was a commercial disappointment. “Saltburn” and “Deadpool and Wolverine” featured already-iconic needle drops, but voters might prefer a musical or a soundtrack of newly curated songs over compilations of old songs.
“Maestro” has the benefit of being a collection of Leonard Bernstein’s work, and biopic soundtracks have won here before. However, it’s a compilation of entirely classical music, which hasn’t won here previously, so it remains a wild card. And then there’s “Twisters,” which is easily the most popular soundtrack among the contenders and features artists from the country and Americana scene. But being so specific to a certain genre could limit its appeal.
Gold Derby odds say: “Twisters” will win.
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Best Melodic Rap Performance
No, the competition is not as strong in this race as it is for Best Pop Vocal Album. There’s just no clear frontrunner. Beyoncé’s “Spaghetti” featuring Shaboozey and Linda Martell is the favorite according to many, but album tracks only tend to win in this category as part of big rap sweeps by field favorites, and “Cowboy Carter” isn’t a rap album.
Jordan Adetunji and Kehlani’s “Kehlani” is the biggest hit here by far, but its style might alienate some voters, being a drill song famous because of its TikTok virality. Viral songs have won before, but they tend to have broader appeal, and “Kehlani” may be harder for old-school rap heads to get into. Then there’s Latto’s “Big Mama,” which was a moderate hit for her but perhaps not impactful enough to win.
The last two songs also have disadvantages. Rapsody and Erykah Badu are definitely a pair that would appeal to older voters, but “3:AM” lacks the commercial success to ensure that enough voters know and remember it; voters may feel more drawn to a song that defined the culture or the zeitgeist. And Future and Metro Boomin’s “We Still Don’t Trust You” featuring The Weeknd is barely a rap song (closer to a pop track) and had limited impact.
Gold Derby odds say: Beyoncé, Linda Martell, and Shaboozey will win.
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Best Latin Pop Album
This race is split four ways. The biggest artist here is Shakira, nominated for “Las Mujeres Ya No Lloran.” While this album launched some pretty big singles, it under-performed at the Latin Grammys, missing the pop field entirely. It’s also not considered Shakira’s best, and that could hurt it too.
In the U.S., you could argue that the most successful album here is Kali Uchis’ “Orquídeas,” which is the most acclaimed too; Recording Academy members who vote in the Latin field do tend to favor artists who are bigger in the States. That said, “Orquídeas” going empty handed at the Latin Grammys might spell trouble.
Who won at the Latin Grammy instead? Luis Fonsi, who is best known in the States for “Despacito.” Fonsi’s “El Viaje” is the least commercial album here, but perhaps the Latin Grammy win indicates industry passion for the project. And he hasn’t won at these Grammys before, so voters might want to finally give him his first.
And finally, there’s Kany García, who won two Latin Grammys. “García” is helped by being the most traditional album here, but since it wasn’t up against Fonsi or Uchis at the Latin Grammys, there’s no way of knowing if it would have won against them head-to-head. The final nominee, Anitta, is a huge star who might get unanimous support from Brazilian voters, so I wouldn’t count her “Funk Generation” out either.
Gold Derby odds say: Shakira will win.
The 2025 Grammys will take place on Feb. 2 and be broadcast live on CBS and Paramount+.
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